Here’s what we learnt from the past week, which kicked a number of teams out of contention including the Buccaneers, Falcons and Redskins.
Josh Gordon needs a Transformers nickname
Gordon, a supplementary draft pick of the Cleveland Browns, has become the first player in NFL history to have consecutive 200-yard receiving games following his 261-yard effort on Sunday.
Only eight players have ever had two such games in season. Gordon is one of the premier talents in the league, and it’s now up to the Browns to get a top quarterback to throw him the ball.
Geno Smith isn’t the quarterback for this year
Rex Ryan pulled the plug on rookie quarterback Geno Smith after a first half in which Geno could only complete four passes for 29 yards (QB rating of 8.3). Smith also threw his 19th interception, which makes him the leader in the NFL.
Smith could develop into an NFL-calibre player eventually, but right now he needs to sit behind a veteran (not Chris Simms) and learn the trade.
Perhaps the Jets should call Vince Young, or even Tim Tebow once more?
Peyton can ice up, son
Looking at Denver’s remaining schedule (TEN, SD, HOU, OAK), and their current 10-2 standing atop the AFC, the Broncos have likely wrapped up one of the top seeds in the AFC and will get a bye through the Wild Card week.
They have a two-game lead on everyone but the Patriots – Kansas are one game behind, but Denver hold the tiebreaker.
Whilst it may benefit Manning to play somewhere other than the cold, windy Mile High stadium, the extra week’s rest – perhaps two, if Week 17 becomes the Brock Osweiler show – will help Manning for a playoff run.
Eagles are validated
The Eagles four-game win streak didn’t seem legit (they beat up on the Raiders, Redskins and Rodgers-less Packers) until they faced the Cardinals and their top-ten defensive unit on Sunday.
It was a close 24-21 victory, and Foles continued his streak without an interception to prove that he’s no fluke, but the Philly defense was the real hero for the team.
Now 7-5, the Eagles have a great chance of making the playoffs, and will be a tough ask of any team assigned to face them.
Seahawks are unstoppable at home
With a dominant 34-7 victory on Monday Night Football, the Seahawks have practically secured the NFC top seed, two games ahead of the nearest competitors with four games to play.
They’ve smashed both the 49ers and Saints at home, and it is now certain that the NFC road to the Super Bowl runs through Seattle.
Quick Hits
* Adrian Peterson is the third-fastest (101 games) player to reach 10,000 yards
* Cam Newton has 10 games in his career with at least two passing touchdowns and a running touchdown, the most by any player in their first three seasons
* Only one team has a top-five offence and top-five defence – New Orleans
* Tony Romo and the Cowboys are oft criticised for being loose with the ball, but they’re second in the league with a +12 turnover differential
* This might be rubbing it in, but if Nick Foles threw an interception on his next 50 (yes, fifty) passes, he would still have a higher QB rating than Geno Smith.
mushi
Guest
And having a coach who's built a system for playing in the weather... plus playing at home for most of the games probably helps a little!
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The other thing is practice - having done it before, and knowing you can do it.
Nigel Wakeley
Roar Guru
Throwing a tight spiral is important, but not the only factor in performing in bad weather. Belichick talked about this in an interview post-week 12, and he said the three things that make TB12 a good cold-weather QB is a tight spiral, big hands, and mental toughness.
Josh Wye
Roar Pro
Wow! Such insane analysis mushi. You make some awesome points
mushi
Guest
To be clear he definitely had an issue early last season returning from injury but he seems to be throwing strikes in the 7 or so games I've watched of theirs other than when he is forced to throw off balance
Mushi
Guest
I've heard this as well but only ever when validating the surface analysis around cold weather and when he had just come back from regenerating nerves in his neck. my thoughts are it is the talking heads way of validating their surface analysis. You go back to some college scouting reports (which looks at this stuff) and they marvel at his deep accuracy, hard to have deep accuracy playing outdoors with a loose spiral. I didn't see a single mention of it there as they said he had close to perfect mechanics.
Jared
Roar Pro
That's a fair comment but if it was an easy thing to achieve, more than 8 receivers in the history of the game would have done it. What's been an interesting stat floating around is that every time Jeffrey has gone over 100 yards in a game the bears have lost the game (0-5).
Michael Webber
Guest
Lots of stats on Peyton Manning's performance but how about something qualitative. I've heard reference to Manning's passes being more prone to weather conditions because he doesn't throw a "tight spiral" like Brady does. The idea being a fluttering ball will not hold it's path as well in windy conditions. Thoughts?
Nigel Wakeley
Roar Guru
Some great analysis here! It's easy to look at ESPN's quick numbers downplaying his away/cold record, but it sure seems pretty decent when you get down to it, as you do here!
Nigel Wakeley
Roar Guru
The Vikings have the 30th ranked pass defense - his performance against the Saints was much more impressive.
mushi
Guest
The final game is away to Oakland. I don’t think anyone would see that as a great proxy for Jersey a month or so deeper into winter. I think the writer was referring to home field through the playoffs, where he will probably be asked to put in more than one half:) On the manning cold weather discussion it comes up but really what gets thrown out? The win loss record and that his numbers “drop off”. But there are also countless articles written about how when you dig a little deeper that 10-12 record and his performances don’t match the cause for alarm. The first problem being is that the majority of those games are away games (20 of his 22 games) so he’s gone in those away games 9-11 (45%) doesn’t sound great right? but that is still above the average performance of the away team this year for instance (40%) How about we add strength of schedule to that and the teams he’s faced went 198-154 so going just under 0.500 primarily on the road seems like a massive outperformance vis-a-vis what the rest of the league did against these teams. That comparison would be even better if you take out the Buffalo game they treated as a scrimmage during their 14-1 season (and he was pulled form to avoid injury). Second being you are looking at career struggles and then saying he needs to play one more game to prove he can play in those condition well then lets just look at his performance from his first MVP season and beyond (assuming he had developed somewhat as a passer at that point). Since then he’s gone 0.500 against 0.580 teams (including 3 super bowl winners) playing 12 of the 14 on the road lookinga t those numbers he’s basically outperformed by 0.130 or ~2 wins in 14 games (or in season terms had a 10-6 season level of output in those games) His individual performances seem pretty good around 260 yards a game, 67% completion percentage, almost 8 yards per attempt and a simple average of his quarterback rating (a hideous stat that I hate) of around 93. Sure it is below his normal production over that span but it is hardly indicative of someone that can’t play in those conditions In fact if I threw up those numbers and said – guess the QB many stats heads would say Tom brady’s career numbers? Is he as good in the cold outdoors on the road agasint palyoff teams as he is normally – no (but then I’m not sure who is), is he still an elite quarterback in those situations – hell yes.
Jared
Roar Pro
Lets not forget Alshon Jeffrey who had 249 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on the weekend against the Minnesota Vikings. It was also the second time this season that he went over 200 yards receiving as he managed 218 against the Saints.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
"Whilst it may benefit Manning to play somewhere other than the cold, windy Mile High stadium, the extra week’s rest – perhaps two, if Week 17 becomes the Brock Osweiler show – will help Manning for a playoff run." I think it's in Mannings best interests to play in those weather conditions. THe Superbowl is being played outdoors, and he needs to get used to it if he wants to hoist the trophy. We have discussed before how poor his record in outdoors cold weather stadiums is. At least half a game to show he has it.