While last weekend’s Sunshine Swing may have raised an eyebrow somewhere, you can pretty much lock in the Perth Wildcats and Adelaide 36ers as this NBL season’s top two.
At the very least, you can forget about them not making the finals from here.
After that though, who knows?
As we enter the last round before the break formerly reserved for the All-Star Game, you can’t rule out any of the remaining six teams playing finals.
The Sydney Kings and Melbourne Tigers occupy third and fourth. But they’ve been hit and miss since the acquisitions of big name imports Sam Young and Mustapha Farrakhan respectively.
The Kings, in third place, are struggling the most. Young’s arrival meant Jesse Sanders departed, which itself meant Charles Carmouche was moved to point guard.
In the three games since, the Kings offence has produced scores of 55, 67 and 69. The highest post-import-swap score of A.J. Ogilvy, who was averaging 18 points prior, has been 10 points.
Obviously the introduction of a player straight from the NBA means that things will be run a bit differently. Young is now the main weapon and that’s absolutely the way it should be.
But you suspect Ogilvy averaging less than eight points a game is not at all part of Shane Heal’s blueprint.
There’s a way to go before the Kings are playing at their full potential and it becomes a question of how far they’ll slip before the inevitable turnaround comes.
Make no mistake though, there will be a turnaround. A team that includes the likes of Young, Ogilvy and Madgen shouldn’t be able to fall too far off the pace.
The Tigers are going through a phase of not just accommodating Farrakhan but also attempting to reduce their reliance on Chris Goulding.
It’s something Chris Anstey spoke about a few weeks ago and since then, their form has understandably been a bit patchy. The Tigers are 4-0 when Goulding scores more than 25, so kicking the habit is easier said than done.
The past three weeks have seen Melbourne drop two games and grind out two close wins against the Kings and Breakers.
Now, if you adopt a long-term view, seeing two teams going through short-term pain for long-term gain yet with both still clinging on to top four spots can lead to the assumption those teams are in the box seat.
However, Townsville’s import combo and Aussie point guard Steve Markovic continue to surprise sceptics. Plus, the Crocs have only played nine games – the lowest in the comp – so they’ve got room to move starting with a double this weekend.
Both Townsville and the New Zealand Breakers are on four wins, one behind Sydney and Melbourne. The Breakers are starting to get things together, even if they couldn’t muster a win from their two games last weekend.
The challenge is that they’ve played 12 games – the most – so there are factors working against them. But this is the reigning three-peat champions we are talking about.
Cairns and Wollongong are one game further back, but both had confidence-boosting wins last weekend and it’s not unreasonable to suggest both have more attractive looking form than Sydney and Melbourne right now.
If you adopt a wide view, all six of the remaining teams are decent candidates for the remaining two slots.
It’s just a question of who can rise above the pack. That means for the time being, every NBL game has plenty on the line.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Almost all teams are a good chance to hold home court every week, mark of a pretty even competition. Exception is, of course, the Wildcats, just tearing up the competition and showing signs of still having another gear yet to go.
Matthew
Guest
I just dont think the Breakers are going to fire this year. Or if they do it will be the last 3-4 rounds. THey havnt adapted as well to the competition actually enforcing rules and they lack a few key players. The fact that the Wildcats have now won at Vector Arena means that one of the few psychological weapons NZ had left , has evaporated too. Like Kris said above though, feels like all the other non Perth teams are about equal sometimes.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Plainsman, nice analysis of the Kings situation. Interesting you have Cairns and Wollongong down as not worth a mention. They're not done with yet in my view. The Gong have won two of their last three and lost the other by a point, with Larry Davidson I think out for two of those games. Rotnei Clarke is coming along nicely. As for Cairns, in the past two weeks have pushed Perth to overtime and had a convincing win over Adelaide. I wrote about them last week but I had high expectations for them in the pre-season. They've still got to turn things around, although the last month, and in particular the last two weeks, have been positive.
Sledgeross
Roar Rookie
Agree, Sanders was a solid player and seemingly lovely bloke, but just wasnt up to the standard required from an import. Carmouche had his best games of the season before Youngs signing so probably made a stronger case.
Kris Swales
Expert
Wasn't completely sold on Sanders but definitely raised an eyebrow when he was shipped off - maybe Carmouche might have been best to go given Madgen and Ogilvy both have big points in them if they're getting quality ball? Neither Madgen nor Carmouche strike me as naturals at running the point. Haven't actually caught a Kings game since Young arrived, might have to head down on Saturday. It looks like everyone else is playing off for second at this stage though, Perth are in another league.
Plainsman
Guest
Hi Michael Thanks for your article. I note your comments regarding AJs lack of points but I regard his rebounding as making up for it. The loss of Jessie Sanders however is beyond my understanding. He was the most positive player I have seen in years with out any pretentions or sense of grandeur. What's more he actually liked being in Australia and was not here because he had no where else to go. I am hopeful for the Kings but I think the Tigers may snare third. I am also hopeful that my beloved Crocs can bring it home with the number of catch up games they have available to them and capture fourth. The biggest threat however will come from the Breakers who if they actually get it right will be a major force in the second half of the competition. How dissappointing though that Cairns and Wollongong do not even rate a mention. This is a serious problem for the NBL and to have a quarter of the competition completely uncompetitive is a significant worry.
JamesM
Guest
My picks are Melbourne and NZ. The Kings are going to regret cutting Sanders, a selfless PG to set up both Young and Ogilvy is exactly what they need.