Analysing the 2014 Australian Open draw

By Avatar / Roar Guru

The excellent performances of our tennis players have gone unrewarded, with Bernard Tomic, Ashleigh Barty and James Duckworth among the biggest losers at the Australian Open draw held on Friday morning.

Tomic and Barty, who in 2013 almost guided Australia to the Hopman Cup final in Perth, have drawn the respective number one seeds in both the men’s and women’s draws in their Round 1 matches, while James Duckworth has drawn none other than Roger Federer as his first round assignment.

Lleyton Hewitt, fresh off winning the Brisbane International, didn’t fare much better either, drawing 24th seed Andreas Seppi in his opener and Kei Nishikori, whom he beat in the semi-finals in Brisbane, in the third round.

Should he clear both obstacles, Rafael Nadal will possibly await in Round 4.

For that to happen, Nadal would have to first get past Bernard Tomic who, at the time of writing, will face Sergiy Stakhovsky in the semi-finals of the Sydney International where he is the defending champion.

It’s a blockbuster Round 1 showdown and will be only their second meeting overall, with Nadal winning their previous encounter in the third round of the 2011 Australian Open.

Tomic has never lost in the first round of a hard court Grand Slam tournament, but that record is doomed to end by Tuesday night.

Nadal could also possibly face young Australian gun Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, Gael Monfils, against whom Nadal defeated for the Doha crown last week, in the third round, and then one of Hewitt or Nishikori in the fourth round.

Should results unfold as planned, Nadal would then run into Juan Martin del Potro or Milos Raonic in the quarter-finals, and then one of Andy Murray or Roger Federer could await in the semi-finals.

Nick Kyrgios, a wildcard entrant who will play at the Australian Open for the first time, faces Benjamin Becker in the opening round, but should he get to the third round, 2009 US Open champion del Potro could possibly await.

To add to the interesting top half of the draw, Federer could face Radek Stepanek in Round 2, his Wimbledon conqueror, Sergiy Stakhovsky, or 2009 semi-finalist Fernando Verdasco, in Round 3, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Gilles Simon possibly awaiting in Round 4.

The bottom half of the draw is anchored by three-time defending champion Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer, who for the third year in a row are in the same half.

Djokovic will open his quest for a fourth straight title against Slovakia’s Lukas Lacko, and should not be threatened until at least the quarter-finals, where he could reprise his memorable showdown against Stanislas Wawrinka from last year.

After that, one of Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer will await in the semi-finals. Both fell victim to Djokovic at last year’s Australian Open.

On the women’s side, any hope Ashleigh Barty has of winning her maiden Australian Open match was all but destroyed when she drew world number one Serena Williams in the opening round.

Samantha Stosur is in the same section at the top of the draw, and didn’t fare any better. She has drawn Klara Zakopalova (against whom she will contest the semi-final in Hobart) in the opening round, Sydney finalist Tsvetana Pironkova in Round 2, and Auckland champion Ana Ivanovic in Round 3.

The winner of the latter tie will be all but finished in the round of 16, where Williams will certainly await.

But to get there, Williams will first have to get past Barty, and then possibly Daniela Hantuchova in Round 3.

Wildcard entrant Casey Dellacqua has, meanwhile, drawn comeback Russian Vera Zvonareva in the opening round, with Roberta Vinci possibly awaiting in the third round.

Vinci and Sara Errani, who are the defending champions in doubles, will have to settle their differences for the right to play Serena in the quarter-finals; they have been drawn to face each other in the fourth round. Errani defeated Vinci only recently in the first round of the Sydney International.

Rounding out the top half of the draw, Li Na (seeded fourth) anchors a very interesting quarter, whereby she could face one of Sabine Lisicki or Ekaterina Makarova in Round 4.

Makarova has drawn Venus Williams first up, with Lisicki, whom she beat at the US Open last August, awaiting in the third round.

Angelique Kerber (ninth) and Petra Kvitova (sixth) are seeded to meet in an enticing all-lefty fourth round showdown.

Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, Agnieszka Radwanska and Jelena Jankovic anchor the bottom half of the draw.

Sharapova and Jankovic are seeded to meet in the quarter-finals, while Radwanska must get past Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Caroline Wozniacki if she is to book a quarter-final appointment against Azarenka.

Azarenka will open her bid for a third straight Melbourne crown against Sweden’s Johanna Larsson. Should she get to the fourth round, a rematch of last year’s controversial semi-final against Sloane Stephens is a possibility, but so too is a rematch of last year’s quarter-final against Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Before that, she is in for a possible third round date against Jamie Hampton, who pushed the Belarusian to three sets at the same stage last year.

So, that’s some of the highlights from the draw.

Can our Aussies pull off Mission Impossible and cause some upsets? Will Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams romp their way to another Australian Open title? Can Novak Djokovic and Victoria Azarenka repeat as champions again? How far will Lleyton Hewitt go?

All those questions are set to be answered when the Australian Open starts next week.

The Crowd Says:

2014-01-13T14:45:07+00:00

Rajnish

Guest


I don't think he can Beat Fed Ex coy he iz in superb form. He has a better against Nadal.

2014-01-11T10:24:24+00:00

Lancey5times

Guest


You see that's where you're mistaken. Tomic is tactically very poor (hence his reliance on fast surfaces), moves horribly and is only able to generate power when stationary in the court and can get set. I think we saw tonight how often he gets that chance. Rafa only gets buried behind the baseline when he is physically dominated. Something only Del Potro and Djokovic have done with any success. Tomic has no chance

2014-01-11T09:06:52+00:00

Eddard

Guest


I mean if Tomic is playing from the baseline or just within it and dictating points. When Nadal is not at his best he can sometimes play deep behind the baseline. Obviously if Nadal is playing near his best he will win, but I don't expect him to. I do think Tomic can give him some trouble if he's at his best. He's a tactically smart player with good variety, enough power and the courts suit him.

AUTHOR

2014-01-11T04:00:29+00:00

Avatar

Roar Guru


That is a strong chance, though Hewitt has a tricky opponent in the form of Andreas Seppi in the first round. They are tied 3-all in head-to-head, but Seppi won their most recent meeting in Shanghai last year when Hewitt was injured. Hewitt has a strong chance here, then he can set himself up to meet Nadal in round four. Nadal leads Hewitt in head-to-head 6-4, so it's not that bad. Five of Nadal's wins, though, came on clay, while two of Hewitt's wins came here at the Australian Open (2004 and 2005). Not that I'm giving Hewitt a chance against Nadal if they eventually meet, but it will be an intriguing showdown no doubt.

2014-01-11T03:07:52+00:00

Lancey5times

Guest


I to hope he makes all of Mexico proud ;)

2014-01-11T02:56:44+00:00

ak

Roar Guru


Had his opponent been Federer then he had a chance. But not against Rafael Nadal.

2014-01-11T02:54:55+00:00

ak

Roar Guru


Lleyton Hewitt has a real chance to reach at least up to the fourth round and set up a meeting with the King of Clay.

2014-01-11T02:22:15+00:00

Lancey5times

Guest


Fantastic. I'll be trolling the outside courts on the first Sunday Troy. If you are nearby I'd like to buy you a plastic cup of beer. Some sense finally. As usual, Lleyton is our best chance of week 2/weekend 1. And this is a guy with nothing to prove. The others need to work harder.

2014-01-11T01:24:09+00:00

SirBobJones

Guest


@Lancey here's hoping El Tomico wins at least one set against Rafa!

2014-01-11T00:51:48+00:00

Troy Murray

Roar Rookie


Just to clarify mastermind but how exactly have the "excellent performances of our tennis players gone unrewarded"? Those young tennis players are indeed lucky they have a home grand slam and are in fact rewarded with wildcards into the main draw. Is Ash Barty unlucky to draw Serena Williams? Perhaps, but she is fortunate to have the opportunity she is afforded, given her ranking sits at153. As for Tomic, he has no one to blame but himself if he suffers poor draws in Grand Slams. After winning Sydney last year, Tomic's performances for the rest of the year were extremely disappointing, and consequently his ranking dropped. Once again he has performed well in Sydney this year and may give a good account in his straight sets loss to Rafa. Let's not forget that Tomic is a former Wimbledom quarter-finalist. But, the test for Tomic is can he produce results when playing on an outside court in San Jose, Indian Wells or Miami? (that's provided his ranking gets him into those events). He is an egotistical show-pony who performs well under the bright lights in front of an encouraging, success starved home crowd. When he has to work hard and very few are watching his results are poor, thus explaining his current ranking and him not being seeded. Therefore he has only himself to blame for drawing a Top Player. As for the other Aussies like Hewitt, Matosevic, Groth, Duckworth,Gajdosova etc who have drawn quality seeded players, this shouldn't come as a surprise as the chances of drawing one of the 32 seeds are very high for unseeded players. If young stars, Kyrgios and Kokkinakis cannot pull off 1st round wins, it may be the case that no Aussies get past the 1st round in Singles? The only player that may consider herself unlucky is 17th seed, Sam Stosur. But given she loses 1st round in Australian Open every year, the draw is inconsequential anyway.

2014-01-11T00:42:03+00:00

gwendolyn wilson

Guest


I would love to see venus Williams win Australian open.I LOVE her humility.

2014-01-11T00:18:26+00:00

Lancey5times

Guest


You give Tomic a chance if he takes Nadal on from the back of the court? How does Rafa generally go against the other poor movers on tour? Tomic is too slow and lacks anywhere near the penetration to trouble Nadal. He flattens out the odd forehand with some bite but he's too predictable to stay in a contest like this. Hence his battles on clay. He's a poor mans Marin Cilic and that ain't much

2014-01-10T22:36:23+00:00

Lancey5times

Guest


Bollocks. Let's imagine Tomic was exactly the same player he is but instead of being Australian he is a young Mexican kid. Would you have still written what you wrote? And he will win because Nadal is nervous, didn't win well enough in Qatar and Tomic led previously in a set that he lost? I love the January bandwagon patriotism ;)

2014-01-10T21:51:26+00:00

Ryan Eckford

Roar Guru


I would give Tomic a chance of possibly defeating Nadal. The Sydney final against Del Potro will give us a clue as to whether he can realistically beat or challenge Nadal. The balls and courts are a little quicker this year than in previous years, and I thought I heard Hewitt say on RF and Friends that the speed of the courts on Rod Laver Arena are similar to Sydney, so advantage to Tomic. I also think the match-up of styles will suit Tomic, and the only meeting they have had was back in 2011 at the Australian Open, where Nadal won 6-2, 7-5, 6-3, but Tomic was leading in that second set, and giving Nadal a lot of trouble, so Tomic can definitely compete with him. Nadal, although winning the title in Qatar, the scorelines in some matches against players who I consider average wasn't that convincing for a player who has been dominant on hard courts since his return from injury. Nadal will also be very nervous considering that he hasn't played here since 2012, against an opponent who could give him trouble, his form is potentially questionable, and don't forget that his knees could play up at any time. I also think that it is time for a younger player to defeat a player of Nadal's stature, because the upsets last year were done by seasoned/journeymen players. It is possible that a higher power above IBM has influenced sub-consciously and selected Tomic to do it. It could happen. It could be destiny.

2014-01-10T17:36:29+00:00

Eddard

Guest


I actually give Tomic some chance against Nadal. Given it's the first round he could get him a little rusty...and Nadal isn't as bad a match up for him as he is for so many others. Tomic is tall with a solid 2 handed backhand so Nadal's fizzing crosscourt forehand won't cause him as much problem as it does to others. If Tomic can play from the baseline and use his serve and forehand well then you never know. Especially if Rafa is a little rusty which is when he tends to play a little deeper in the court.

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