The Over/Under: conference championships

Only two games remain until the Super Bowl and the four favourites of the divisional match-ups are playing. It’s the first time since 2004 that all favourites won in the divisional round.

Now, it’s two major rivalry games to decide the last teams standing for the 2013-14 NFL season.

Denver over New England (+5.5)
The Manning-Brady rivalry is nearing its conclusion with both superstars in their late thirties and it’s only fitting that they have another Conference Championship battle.

The Broncos and Patriots were the top two teams in the AFC during the season with both their quarterbacks submitting MVP-calibre seasons for vastly different reasons.

Peyton Manning had one of the greatest seasons in the history of quarterbacks, breaking the records for touchdowns and passing yards. The Denver offense was historic, becoming the first team to break 600 points in a season while ranking first in offensive DVOA.

Most of this stems from the passing game, with a talented group of receivers emphasising the versatility of Denver’s aerial attack.

Whether it’s short passing to Wes Welker or deeper throws to Demaryius Thomas, Manning has the ability to attack any part of the field.

Apart from the brilliant passing offense, the career of Knowshon Moreno has also been revitalised as the Broncos rushing offense ranked 10th in DVOA. Even if the conditions aren’t ideal for throwing the football, Denver has the ability to ground it out if necessary.

In contrast, Tom Brady didn’t have his most prolific passing season. He clearly struggled at points during the season, much of this due to the loss of major receiving weapons.

With his leading receiver being Julian Edelman and an unstable running-back core, Brady somehow made this offense perform en route to a 12-4 record.

At the end of the year, both the passing and rushing offenses were ranked within the top 10 and the overall offensive DVOA was fourth.

Despite significant losses to the passing game, particularly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have managed to reinvent themselves as a balanced attack with a legitimate power rusher in LeGarrette Blount.

The weaknesses of these teams are their defences. In terms of defensive DVOA, Denver is ranked 15th while New England is 21st.

It also must be recognised that the quality of offensive opponent isn’t high for either team, with Denver ranked 24th and New England ranked 30th.

This means that despite playing a weak offensive schedule, neither team could establish a strong defence.

Clearly, Denver’s defence should be viewed as better based on this comparison. But the loss of Von Miller, their best defensive player, creates a significant downgrade in their talent level.

The Broncos ranked 21st against the pass and without Miller, Brady could potentially dominate if the weather conditions are viable. However, the Broncos rushing defence is ranked ninth so don’t expect the same Patriots rushing performance as last week against the Colts.

On the other side of the spectrum, New England performs poorly against the run (27th) and adequately against the pass (14th).

That pass defence is going to have a tough task against the might of the Broncos, especially if the conditions are calm. Most importantly, the front seven will have to stop the run early or it will open up the whole Denver offensive playbook.

A big issue that New England has managed to conquer to this point is their injury crisis. With Brandon Spikes placed on injured reserve, six Patriots starters have been lost for the year due to IR listings.

With four of these players being defenders the New England defence has unsurprisingly struggled. Although they’ve survived so far, this injury issue will be targeted by Peyton Manning and his juggernaut offense.

These two teams met in Week 12 in New England with the Patriots emerging victorious 34-31. Expect this game to be just as exciting but with Manning and the Broncos booking their ticket to the Super Bowl with their historically dominant offense.

San Francisco over Seattle (-3.5)
The two NFC West rivals get one last shot at each other this season, with the season series already being split 1-1. Despite San Francisco’s fifth seeding for the playoffs, these two foes were clearly the best two teams in the NFC. In contrast to the AFC match-up, this will be a contest of two of the league’s best defences.

The Seattle defence was the best in the league ranked first overall in defensive DVOA. Their league best secondary, the Legion of Boom, was instrumental in Seattle dominating opponents at home with Richard Sherman being viewed as a potential defensive player of the year.

The Seahawks were by far the best defence in the league with a -25.8% DVOA compared to Arizona’s second placed defence at -16.4%.

However, it is important to note that Seattle has played the 31st ranked offensive schedule meaning that they’ve been beating up on weak opponents. Though the Seahawks defence is very impressive, it isn’t unbeatable.

A slow start to the season hurt the 49ers defensive ranking, leaving it to fall to 13th in 2013. Yet it improved significantly in the second half as San Francisco began their impressive win streak.

It will be essential that it plays up to its potential, especially against a suddenly shaky Seattle offense.

Ranked 10th against the pass and 14th against the run, the 49ers will be looking to keep Seattle in check and give its offense enough of an opportunity. San Francisco will rely on its defence to help stifle any potential read-option from Russell Wilson and force the Seahawks into a conservative gameplan.

In recent weeks, Wilson and the Seattle offense have been struggling. The offense has been failing to fire with Wilson averaging 128 yards passing in his last three home games. Marshawn Lynch has been picking up the slack as he outrushed Seattle’s passing game in their divisional match-up.

But New Orleans run defence wasn’t as strong as San Francisco’s, meaning that the game may be back on Wilson’s shoulders. This passing game is efficient and effective as long as its young quarterback is playing confidently.

Though it doesn’t help that Seattle’s pass protection is ranked last in the league in DVOA.

The 49ers offense contrasts to Seattle, in that its early season struggles have disappeared and a strong offensive nucleus has emerged. Kaepernick is playing with a brash confidence and San Francisco is echoing that with Frank Gore battering teams on the ground.

The two offenses aren’t very different with Seattle ranked seventh and San Francisco eighth while Kaepernick and Wilson are ranked eighth and ninth respectively in DVOA. But it’s the offense of the 49ers which is playing better at the moment and it will play a major role in beating Seattle at home.

However, the 12th man of the Seahawks has to be mentioned when their games are in Seattle. It may be the most imposing home-field in the league with the Seahawks sporting a 15-1 record over the past two years.

Much of this can be attributed to their ability to force opponents into penalties due to the extreme crowd noise, as Seattle opponents lead the league in false starts.

Despite the 12th man, it’s the wrong time for this Seattle offense to struggle. It will clearly be the worst of the four major units playing this game and the Seahawks can’t afford that with their Super Bowl aspirations.

Unless Pete Carroll can outcoach Jim Harbaugh, it’s going to be a difficult task to get this offense performing.

Seattle and San Francisco have met twice with a 1-1 record. Seattle won 29-3 at home in Week 2 while San Francisco won 19-17 at home in Week 14. These two teams are almost mirror images and the game will unfold as such.

Following the style of the second game, the 49ers win a defensive struggle on the road.