2014 Super Rugby preview: New Zealand Conference

After previewing the South African conference last week, let’s turn our attention to the always powerful New Zealand conference for 2014.

Highlanders
This team looks so different to last year’s edition. You won’t see Jamie MacKintosh, Andrew Hore, Tamati Ellison, Ma’a Nonu, Hosea Gear, Kade Poki or Buxton Popoali’I turn out for them this year.

2013 could have been a great year for them with the number of quality players they had but a misfiring season never saw them move into second gear. After all the squad changes the Highlanders are suddenly one of the least experienced and will be very much rebuilding.

The Highlanders need to find a long-term fly-half out of Hayden Parker, Lima Sopoaga or Willie Ripia. There’s a chance all three will get time this year.

In the forwards only Jarrad Hoeata and Brad Thorn in the second row have All Blacks caps. They are complimented by Matias Diaz from Argentina with Test experience. So there will be some huge learning curves for the pack this year.

Last year saw the side unable to secure possession at the ruck and almost look like they ignored that part of the game at times. Nasi Manu will have to lead the way as captain and number eight this year. TJ Ioane is capable of being a powerful and destructive unit there as well.

I don’t think they’ll get past the basement of the New Zealand conference.

Key Players:
Aaron Smith is one of the best players at one of the most important positions. So it stands to reason when he has off games – mentally or in execution – his team struggles.

There were times last year when he appeared to be physically there but mentally somewhere else. With Fumiaki Tanaka on the bench the Highlanders have a great one-two punch. They need the set up operating at 100%.

Chris King is a promising young prop. It would be worth keeping a close eye on his progress this year, especially against some of the better Super Rugby scrums.

Hurricanes
There is not much change in the Hurricanes set up from this year to last. That will help with cohesion, but it would have been good to add a few more tough forwards to the list.

The best case scenario for the Hurricanes relies on the forwards taking a leap this year. So many times in 2013 they were pushed around, unable to secure possession through phases and didn’t bend the line enough.

Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Dane Coles, Jeremy Thrush, Victor Vito and the like need to assert themselves physically and make a statement about their style early in the season.

If a platform can be built the Hurricanes are full of points. With finishers like Julian Savea, Cory Jane and Conrad Smith doing the little bits and pieces well the backline isn’t going to mess around with the ball. It’s my sincere hope they’re replaced The Artist Formerly Known as Andre Taylor who played in 2013 with 2012’s Andre Taylor. If so, that back-three is fearsome.

Key Players:
If the Hurricanes are going to leap into a play-off Wildcard spot it would be in large part because 2014 was the year of Ardie Savea.

After being given a taste of Super Rugby level last year, watch for the next step. Savea is the physical specimen God had in mind when he created the position, ‘blindside flanker’. He can get to the ruck, tackle, run as fast as many centres and has decent hands as well.

Beauden Barrett is a great fly-half and if he solidifies his defence not a bad replica of Dan Carter for the All Blacks to rely on.

However, for Super Rugby purposes TJ Perenara is probably worth a little more of your time. He’s almost like clockwork, as soon as I think “hmm, haven’t noticed TJ in a while”, he’ll rip out a long run, put in a lovely kick or no look pass.

Second last in the New Zealand conference, with a few important upsets along the way, is where I see the Hurricanes finishing up.

Blues
A team of winning and losing runs in 2013 will be trying to become a team of consistency this year. Sir John Kirwan infused the team with rookies and inexperienced players at this level during his first year in charge.

That was needed after taking over some-what of a toxic environment at the club. This year the building program will need to involve a more solid first team and more consistent performances from second year players.

The biggest losses of the team will be Ali Williams and Rene Ranger. Super Rugby will just be a slightly less interesting without those two characters around.

The forwards will welcome the return of Jerome Kaino with open arms. One of the legendary hard-men of rugby in your jersey is always a good thing. He’ll consistently add some starch.

This Blues team is full of explosive and athletic players. Many of them can take a game by the scruff of the neck in one play. Ignore them at your own peril.

The likes of Frank Halai, Charles Piutau and Francis Saili started making names for themselves in the backs last year.

This year will need to see improvement from all of them: catching kicks by Halai, consistent defence from Saili and Piutau will need to choose the moments to attack a little better. Ma’a Nonu will be added to that group when he returns from injury, and the mental break he takes for the first 10 rounds of Super Rugby anyway.

I can see the Blues getting better as the season goes but missing the finals, they could reach third in the New Zealand conference if one of their key players makes the jump.

Key Players:
It’s hard to look past Benji Marshall here. It seems as though Kirwan is willing to ride Marshal’s rugby introduction from the fly-half position.

There’s been much discussion here but I can see the logic. Would you move Piutau from fullback? No, I wouldn’t either.

And we all know the approximate ceilings Baden Kerr and Chris Noakes have hit at this point as well. Marshall might not become a viable starting fly-half until later in the year, but the alternatives mean the team wouldn’t be performing as well anyway.

Keep an eye on Steve Luatua whenever you’re watching the Blues. This guy is plenty fun to watch. As loosies go he’s got nearly all the skills already at his young age.

Crusaders
This will be a very interesting year in Crusader-land. Todd Blackadder has been in charge of the side for a few years without winning a championship.

Most coaches would be happy with a series of four semi-finals and a final in five years, but this club is a rugby death star. Anything other than winning everything is falling short.

Last year the Crusaders were very slow out of the gate, taking almost two months to find anything resembling form after some strange losses early. I doubt that will happen this year – Blackadder will have the team ready to go much sooner.

The Crusaders return the entire starting pack from last year. That will be a huge boost and one that may help with victories early. Everyone will be aware of their jobs from day one.

The backline is where things will get a little more interesting. The depth at centre is a little shaky, with Adam Whitelock (who usually played on the wing when he made appearances last year), Ryan Crotty and Rey Lee-Lo the only listed players. Israel Dagg is the sole fullback as well.

Tom Taylor, listed as a fly-half, will probably play some 12 or 15. But the Crusaders are thin in the backs. A few crucial injuries will leave them lacking firepower and restricted to a one-dimensional game.

They aren’t a perfect unit but should be good enough to finish second in the New Zealand conference this year.

Key players:
The Crusaders fly-half monster Tylin Sladendaal will be critical this year. The Crusaders were noticeably a better team when Dan Carter played for them in 2013.

They were more direct instead of going wide for the sake of it. I’d say Colin Slade and Tyler Bleyendaal will both end up spending time there this year and how they go will obviously impact on field position, team shape and attacking plans.

Kieran Read is worth watching, just to see what he can do. Apparently he’s one of the nicest crazy-eyes people in the world. On the field there’s no sign of that between the whistles.

He’s a mongrel with the athletic talent and ball-skills of a basketball player. If he can put together a second season as good as the last he’ll earn a place as an era-defining player.

Chiefs
The reigning champions are in a solid position to go for a three-peat in the 2014 season. There are a few squad changes worth noting in the off-season, but the talent still available is tremendous.

Brendon Leonard moved to Italian club Zebre and while he was an older player, he still did well as a counter-point to Tawera Kerr-Barlow occasionally. However, Augustine Pulu is a capable back-up.

The biggest losses will be Craig Clarke from the second row plus Richard Kahui and Leila Masaga moving on in the backs. Clarke was a strong leader for the team while Masaga was one of the electric outside backs in Super Rugby during his time at the Chiefs.

Kahui has had a few injury-cruelled years after really breaking out in a big way at the 2011 World Cup; his moving to Japan could be interpreted as a way of extending his career.

But the Chiefs Galacticos have picked up Tom Marshall, Robbie Fruean* and Mils Muliaina as replacements. Not too shabby.

*Surely the Chiefs have the deepest choice of centres in the competition. Bundee Aki, Robbie Fruean, Andrew Horrell and Charlie Ngatai area all options in the midfield outside Aaron Cruden. It’s really not fair.

I think the Chiefs will remain an attacking threat from phase-play, set piece and on the counter attack (from anywhere in the field). The hardest part will be repeating the level of committed defence they managed to kick into for the last portion of 2013.

The front row has a number of experienced and powerful campaigners and Brodie Rettalick will be his usual bullish self behind them. That will allow an athletic back-row space to get to work.

Some injuries to start the year will be a bit of a worry – Sam Cane, Gareth Anscombe, Tanerau Latimer and Robbie Robinson – but I think the back end of the New Zealand conference will be a little down and that will help.

The Chiefs will win the New Zealand conference again this year.

Key players:
Sam Cane is a good player and seems to be tipped to replace Richie McCaw in the All Blacks someday. However, at Super Rugby level he’s yet to put together a truly blinding post-to-post season.

Obviously that is partly the development of a young player. But I’d be watching him to stamp his authority on more matches this year – more minutes and popping up in important places – now that he’s a senior player in that pack.

Uuuh, Aaron Cruden goes alright. I suppose he could be considered a key player. He only pulls the strings on the high-powered Ferrari that is the Chiefs’ attack.

I’ve been saying the Chiefs have the best set-piece attack in all of rugby, possibly including national teams. Part of that is being well-drilled; another part is Cruden’s ability to make the right decision and his talent for weighting passes so they reach their target right on time. At times last year he also attacked in the 13 channel during phase-play to create mismatches where possible.