If the recent trend is to be continued, Australia needs to bat first at Cape Town to have any chance of winning this series against South Africa.
Of the past 12 Tests, stretching through two Ashes series and the first two Tests against South Africa, Australia have batted first in seven matches for five wins and two draws.
In the two drawn matches, Australia were well on top and on the way to victory, only to be thwarted by some poor English weather.
In the other five Tests where Australia have batted second, we have lost four and won one, with the sole victory coming at the MCG when England held all the cards until late in the game.
England scored 255 in their first innings and then had Australia on the racks at 9 for 164. Only a 40 run partnership from Brad Haddin and Nathan Lyon and some inept captaincy from Alastair Cook took the first innings total to 204 and a deficit of 51.
From there England managed to get to 5 for 173, so really 5 for 224 and in control of the match, only to inexplicably lose 5 for 6 to leave Australia chasing 231 for victory.
At this stage of the series England were clearly shot and I would argue any half decent team in world cricket should win from a position of 5 for 224 in the second innings.
Another trend that has been mentioned since the Port Elizabeth Test is that Australia’s batsmen don’t have the patience or ability to bat on slow, dry wickets.
While this has some merit, the two times we batted first in England on slow, dry wickets we racked up scores of 7 for 527 in the third Test and 9 for 492 in the fifth Test.
And the only dry wicket during the Australian leg, in Adelaide, Australia batted first and scored 9 for 570.
So no problems batting first on a slow wicket in those games.
We hear a lot about scoreboard pressure being applied to AFL football, it should also be applied to Test match cricket.
Runs on the board is hugely important and, as we’ve seen in the recent past, this Australian team can tally up huge totals when batting first but when set a first innings score we become inept in the chase.
I know some people may look to last year’s Indian series, where we batted first in every match and got smoked four nil, but as we now know the change rooms had a toxic environment and the selectors had a shocker with Moises Henriques playing three Tests, Glenn Maxwell two Tests, Xavier Doherty two, Matthew Wade three, Ed Cowan four and Phil Hughes – who I feel may become a good Test cricketer at some stage – four Tests, even though at this stage he is a dreadful player of spin.
Australian totals batting first in the past 12 Tests – 7 for 527, 9 for 492, 295, 9 for 570, 385, 326, 397.
Australia’s totals batting second – 280, 128, 270, 204, 246.
So our worst first innings total is 15 runs better than our best second innings total. Batting first seven times – total runs 2992 at an innings average of 427.
Batting second five times – 1128 runs at an inning average of 225.
Runs per wicket batting first – 46.
Runs per wicket batting second – 22.
So the most nervous part of the Test for me will be when the two skippers go out to toss the coin.
But who knows – if we lose it, trends are made to be broken.
Fingers crossed.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Pup can make the difference...if he hits form Aussies are back in business. But if he fails again it's hard to see them winning.
Nudge
Guest
Thanks mate. Sounds like Pup is really up for this one and if he produces and I have an inkling he will, she will be on for young and old
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Nice piece Nudge. I agree with the sentiment of others here, how incredible would it be if this were a 5-Test series?! The series between Aus and SA have been fascinating over the past 5 years, always coming down to the last Test, just like this one. You'd have to say SA are strong favourites to win this final Test given the way the Aussie quicks, particularly Harris, looked so knackered at Port Elizabeth.
Pom in Oz
Roar Guru
Yeah, I'm really looking forward to a hard fought contest...
Nudge
Guest
Thanks a lot PIO, it was good fun, but Ronan is safe I'm not giving up my day job. I think your right mate, SA start red hot favourites no doubt. The Aussie bowlers looked very tired last test but I'm hoping they can lift for one big last effort to make it the perfect summer.
Pom in Oz
Roar Guru
Hey Nudge, good to see an article from you. Gratz :) There are so many unknowns going into this test. Is it better to bat or bowl first? Test history tells us one thing, but this ground seems to have a uniqueness to it. A lot depends on how well the bowling team perform on the first morning. How well will the Oz bowlers fare after a rather ordinary performance at Port Elizabeth? Has MJ lost his MoJo and will Harris overcome his mini-slump? Is Harris fit / injury free enough? Will Watson make a difference? Is he fit enough? Will Clarkey finally find some form again. Could Lyon be the difference later on? Have the SA batsmen hit form, or was that just a fluke? Will Steyn, et al again demonstrate their reverse swing artistry? Personally, I think SA have the momentum now and it will require a monumental effort by Oz to bounce back. However, no one in their right mind ever writes off the Baggy Greens. I am very clear in my mind though, like a good many other Roarers, that SA v Oz should be a 5 test series...
JGK
Roar Guru
I think you're last point is the big one. An extra day now is gold at the end of 4 months of cricket (assuming we can bat for a day of course).
stumpy
Guest
Once you get rid of the coin toss that's enables home teams to doctor pitches for every match. Tried looking up some info on Newlands and an interesting stat. Out of the last 10 tosses 4 batted first = 4 losses, 6 bowled first = 4wins 2draws. I hope clarky losses the toss, cause I reckon if he wins the toss and they lose the match, lots of people around here and else where have been sharpening their knives waiting for this. I think it would be to early to decide what the right decision is yet. On the morning of the game have a look at the pitch, weather and he'll make a decision and back him and his team to carry out their plans. Come on Aussie C'on....
The Oracle
Guest
lers just stop wasting time with actually playing cricket and just have a coin toss at each ground to decide the series since nothing else matters, right?
Julian
Guest
As they say, if you win the toss, 9 times out of ten you bat, and on the 10th time, you think about it, then bat. Despite the fact we were rolled for 47 the last time we played here, I'm hearing it's a good wicket to bat on. We also need to bat first to give our bowlers an extra day's rest.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
It's stats like this that make the calls for the abolition of the coin toss as a means to determine who bats first worth considering.
Redsback
Guest
I reiterate my request earlier in the week for a coin-toss coach. Said only a little bit in jest. Surely there is more value in hiring a two-up expert physist than there is in hiring a dietician. Good skin folds or not, overwhelmingly we don't win when we bat second.
Nudge
Guest
But I'm talking about recent times BB. Australia may have won there 3 times batting second years and years ago but this is a very different team. Australia, if Clarke wins the toss must bat first even if recent results at the ground suggest batting second is the way to go. I think Clarke will bat no matter what the conditions
Yes, but South Africa haven't played there much at all in recent times. Australia is the only team to have beaten SA at Newlands since re admission, and on all three occasions Australia batted second.
jamesb
Guest
South Africa had a poor recent record at PE yet they still won.
jamesb
Guest
Australia traditionally does well when they bat first. As a fan, I always want to bat first. My theory as to why you should bat first is that you have runs on the board. When the fielding team bats first, they would be a little tired due to fielding, especially if they were fielding close to two days. Plus, batting last on days four and five is always more difficult due to the wear and tear of the pitch.
South Africa has a better record batting second than first at Newlands.
JGK
Roar Guru
I think Newlands is a bowl first ground though isn't it?
Rob JM
Guest
I'm rather glad G Smith wasn't aware of this stat when he sent us in in the first test.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Interesting stats. Looking froward to third test.