The Newmarket Handicap is the Melbourne Cup of sprint races and is part of Victoria’s biggest non-spring raceday. Let’s get stuck into the Group 1s.
Newmarket Handicap
1. Moment of Change
Arguably the most consistent sprinter in the land, and certainly the most honest, Moment of Change hits this race in career-best form off the back of two Group 1 weight-for-age wins over 1400m.
If the old saying about a good 1200m straight horse needing to be able to run a strong 1400m is true, then this horse should be perfectly suited.
His three starts down the Flemington straight have seen a Lightning second to Black Caviar, a Newmarket second to Shamexpress and a VRC Classic third behind Buffering and Shamexpress.
Fit, fast and flying, he’s earned his top weight of 58kgs, which may be the telling factor over the closing stages.
2. Lankan Rupee
At first glance, Lankan Rupee might seem out of place this high in the weights in the toughest sprint handicap in the country, but I did read on Twitter his last four runs, all wins, were rated at Hay List levels, which is ultra-impressive indeed.
His last-start Oakleigh Plate win was dominant against a quality field, and he has a stakes win down the straight to his credit.
One of three horses vying for favouritism, he deserves his place in the market.
3. Samaready
Samaready has been around for a while, but it’s worth remembering she’s only had 10 starts, and is already a dual Group 1 winner. Her Moir Stakes win in September, second-up at the time, was a peak career run, and she’s every chance to replicate it under those circumstances tomorrow.
She’s certainly the best sprinting mare in the country, and has a chance to claim the overall mantle with victory here.
Her first-up third in the Lightning was good, and she won’t be getting as far out of her ground here as she did there. Clearly one of the horses to beat.
4. Shamexpress
The third of the equal favourites in this race, Shamexpress is the defending Newmarket Handicap champion and probably the best straight horse in Australia.
Alongside his win in this race last year, he has the VRC Sprint second referred to earlier, a Coolmore Stud third as a three-year-old, and a Lightning second three weeks ago. His run that day was one that had ‘next start over 1200m’ written all over it.
He meets Samaready 2kgs better for beating her home that day, and gets the same weight advantage from Moment of Change despite comfortably accounting for him in November.
He’s a weight special as far as I’m concerned, and Damien Oliver on board is another bonus.
Barrier three is the only slight concern about his chances – if he’d drawn a middle to wide barrier, he’d be a dead-set lock.
5. Fontelina
Wind the clock back a decade and Fontelina would be a dual Group 1 winner thanks to his last two Derby Day wins in the Yellowglen or Salinger Stakes, confirming his affinity for the Flemington straight. However, that race was dropped back to Group 2 status in 2007.
Like many Anthony Cummings horses, he can be a hard one to catch.
In fact, he has only started in single-figure odds once in his last 12 starts, despite having three Stakes wins and a Group 1 second during that time.
His first-up record is sound, but he’ll be discounted by punters who question whether he quite has the class to beat all of these.
Barrier one won’t help him find admirers.
6. Spirit of Boom
As tough and honest a sprinter as there is, Spirit of Boom will run around at his usual double-figure odds, and be somewhere in the finish with the right run.
He returned with a slashing second in the Oakleigh Plate, and gets weight relief from Lankan Rupee from that encounter.
Proven down the straight and a proven competitor at WFA, he’ll enjoy only 55.5kgs on his back, and should once more be a force to be reckoned with.
7. General Truce
General Truce generally runs in every sprint race in Victoria, but has never been able to crack a win at 1200m or at greater than Group 3 level, so it’s hard to see him breaking either duck in the Newmarket.
Often seen carrying around the 60kg mark, his allocated 53.5 will feel like a feather, but you sense a place in the second half of the field will be the best he can do.
8. Pago Rock
Pago Rock, a still-improving six-year-old, is one of the most underrated horses racing in stakes class, and will again defy his odds to be right in the finish.
Three starts back, he was beaten by 2.5 lengths by Lankan Rupee, and meets him 3.5kgs better for it.
Two starts ago, he ran a sensational Newmarket trial in the Lightning, coming from near last to be beaten by just over two lengths, and is the best suited back to handicap conditions out of that WFA race.
He took a while to pick up carrying 60kgs behind Adamantium last week, but once he did, he steamed home better than anything in the race.
Like a baseball hitter who has practice swings with a heavy bat before stepping up to the plate with a lighter one, David Hayes is enforcing the same theory with Pago’s Rock backing up here. Include him in all multiples.
9. Unpretentious
Unpretentious is coming off a similar run to Pago Rock in the Lightning, and possibly a better one, drawing the inside as he did and having to shift sideways before making his run.
He’s drawn a friendlier barrier this time around, and will in fact be jumping next to Pago Rock out of 14.
If he produces his best, which he mainly does these days, he can be a danger down in the weights.
10. Knoydart
Knoydart started second favourite behind Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate, and didn’t disappoint coming from a mile back to run into the placings behind the winner and Spirit of Boom, his third at least the equal of his Hareeba Stakes win.
While never having seen Flemington under race conditions, he’ll be well versed down the straight, and certainly has some claims, but he won’t be appearing in my selections.
11. Albrecht
The second of the Snowden runners, I’m still gutted at Albrecht’s Salinger Stakes flop after he was my best of Derby Day last year.
Prior to that, he’d looked accomplished in the Bobbie Lewis and Gilgai, and he has quality enough to have a Golden Rose second on his resumé.
He returned well at Randwick a fortnight ago (I lost on him again though), and could run a nice race if his head is right.
12. Flamberge
Another quality horse, another straight-track specialist, and another horse at super odds.
Upon watching the Oakleigh Plate replay a few times, this was the horse that stood out as the unlucky runner.
Never on the track, trapped four and five wide the entire race, he ended up being about ten wide on the turn and still came from 10th at the 400m to run fifth.
It was as meritorious as anything else in the race, and I made a note he was one to watch out for on the minimum come Newmarket time.
Last time he saw this track and distance he walked away with the Group 3 Standish in the easiest of victories.
The multiples tickets are getting plenty of ink on them in a race like this, but he’s another to include at value.
13. Mister Milton
Connections have long thought this horse has Group 1 ability, but he produces his best sparingly. Anything under 150-1 is unders.
14. Bernabeu
Bernabeu was the biggest spruik horse going into the Lightning Stakes, and ended it as the biggest flop.
If you’re willing to forgive that run and take him completely on trust, you’re getting four or five times the odds this time around.
Our guru Justin Cinque has an extremely high opinion of this horse, even suggesting he was a candidate to break Black Caviar’s 1000m track record in the Lightning.
Hopefully he brings his best so we can see where he truly sits in the pecking order.
15. Va Pensiero
The second of the three-year-olds, he’d be a nice horse to get right when picking a winner, with his three wins coming at an average of $19. He’ll be double that tomorrow.
He did win the Run to the Rose carrying top weight in the spring, leading all the way and beating Dissident in the process.
His three subsequent 1200m runs saw him wanting against the likes of Zoustar, Lion of Belfort, Thermal Current and Not Listenin’tome. Not the worst in it.
The scene is set for a cracking affair between the proven Group 1 horses (Moment of Change, Samaready, Shamexpress, Lankan Rupee), the honest toilers looking to claim their first win at the highest level (Spirit of Boom, Pago Rock, General Truce, Albrecht), and the up-and-comers attempting to announce themselves (Unpretentious, Knoydart, Flamberge, Bernabeu).
Selections: 1. Shamexpress 2. Pago Rock 3. Flamberge 4. Unpretentious
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
As Greg Miles said following the Rubiton; 'We might just have a horse here'. Referring of course to Lankan Rupee. To use the racing lingo, 'super impressive'!
titch
Guest
Knoydart put in a slashing run in the Oakleigh and 1200m looks ideal but in a field like this he wouldn't want to get too far but then again Samaready will probably get back - if his last run is anything to judge him by - and be storming home.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the tip. I haven't been back to Flemington in years, so can't wait for tomorrow!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Excellent points, both Bondy and Justin, and I agree with both. It was a great thrill watching Black Caviar do her thing, as I did at the track many times among a throng of people, but I also love to punt on the best races and love an open field with some value to be found or a 'good thing' at $3 or $4 (even if they rarely come along).
Justin Cinque
Expert
Haradasun, I was at Flemington last week for the Guineas. I flew down for the weekend. I ended up watching the races from the public stands - Lawn and Hill. If you're going to do the same, I'd bring a pair of binoculars. They split the big screen down there - side-on and head-on footage, and it makes it hard to tell where the horses are placed - especially because the big screen is more than furlong away! You really need a pair of binoculars to have a good idea of what's happening. If you're in the members, you'll probably be fine because the screen is right in front of the members. But if not, bring the 10x50s!
Justin Cinque
Expert
It's give and take isn't Bondy? I mean when Black Caviar won the Newmarket, we didn't bet but we won't forgot the ease with which she disposed of her opposition carrying a record weight. Tomorrow, we'll have a bet but we probably won't be talking about the race in 20 years time. As well as that, the race probably won't be the sort of advertisement for the sport that Black Caviar was.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hey Haradasun, I think Sertorius will win. He's hugely effective at a mile. I hope he jumps well so Maloney can use the gate. This horse made a name for himself by parking on the speed and running his opposition into the turf over a mile. Either way, I'd be shocked if he didn't run well and I'd be a little bit surprised if he doesn't win. The horse just keeps getting better and better.
Bondy
Guest
I'll just mention we should also be greatful of betting in races like these New Markets ,Lightning's and TJ's BCaviar stifled betting on sprint racing for two years.
Haradasun
Guest
What are your thoughts on Sertorious tomorrow Justin? :D Are there any roarers heading out there tomorrow?
Bondy
Guest
I notice Spirit Of Boom gets a worthy mention from most punters here,he's been running up the straight admirably for a couple of seasons now. He's all heart "probably can't win" but all heart.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I think I agree Cam.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Such a tough race, and you can't have them all, so Knoydart is one I've left out of my top six or seven, but there's every chance he or a few others can win, as you say. Mister Milton is the only one I'd genuinely say couldn't win, and I'd be staggered if General Truce did, but I could make some sort of small case for all others if I had to.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's the big question of handicap racing isn't it Will, especially at the elite level. And it will be the easiest question of all to answer just over a minute after they jump! I've thrown a few roughies in, and they can certainly run a place in this sort of race (in the last six Newmarkets, we've seen horses run a drum at $81, $21 x 3, $71, $19, $31) but as I point out above in my comment to Justin, 9 of the last 11 winners were already G1 winners when they saluted. If you trust that sort of history, then only the top four saddlecloths can really win it. I think Shamexpress is the one.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Also, here's Cam's preview of the Australian Cup and Chipping Norton... http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/03/07/2014-australian-cup-preview/
Justin Cinque
Expert
By the way everyone, if you haven't already, make sure you join our Roar Racing Stakes Star Stable league - 208902. Already, we've got an English Grand National-sized field. Cox Plate quality though ;)
Justin Cinque
Expert
I agree on that last line! How exciting is a close Flemington straight race. So many times at the 100m mark I've thought I'd at least get the place bit of my eachway bet up, only to run sixth or seventh!!
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Flying down to Melbourne in the morning to hit Flemington for Super Saturday - my first non-Cup Carnival trip out there. Very excited. More than anything I am looking forward to watching Fiorente run again. I have a serious man-crush on this horse and how could you not - he just loves winning races. In the Newmarket, there is a bit of a spruik around for Unpretentious all of a sudden. His run in the Lightning was good and he certainly gets some weight relief into this. But is he really top class (as some of the others certainly are)? Will the weight pull cover the class difference?
Alfred Chan
Expert
Great preview Cam! I'm with you on Pago Rock. I think he could run out of his skin because he's be there abouts in his last two and gets a huge weight swing in his favour here. I'll be including him in my quaddie. Knoydart is another one that I give a chance because he was just about the only horse closing on Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh. I can make a case for 10 of the 15 though.
Rob
Guest
Great read Cam, love the respect you're giving to some of the lesser fancies such as Spirit of Boom and Pago Rock. SOB, or Sobbie as we like to call him is one of our favourite horses, so honest, he'll be there when the whips are cracking tomorrow, you can guarantee that.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Bernabeu couldn't have flopped so badly unless something was wrong, and normally the spruik 'jump-out' horse always runs well down the straight, especially if they're from Sydney. Apparently he has done so again. Sometimes the saddlecloth numbers do tell a story, as they did in the Guineas last week - the first four home were all wearing 1-4. If you boxed 1-6 up here in a tri and first four, you'd have to go close, and you're getting value in there too. I just love that Happy Trails / Spirit of Boom comparison. I can't believe I hadn't thought of it earlier! Happy Trails was up in the weights when he won that first Group 1, due to being such a consistent horse, and then was able to defy the knockers again in the Turnbull. I'd really love it if SOB can get his breakthrough Group 1 here. History is just that little bit against him though - 9 of the last 11 Newmarket winners already had a Group 1 victory to their name beforehand, and one of the two who hadn't was Wanted, who'd run 2nd three times. SOB has certainly been knocking on that door, but is he destined to just fall short again? It kills me to leave him out of my top four, and frankly he should be in there, but I'll be backing him. Haha, it's a very small limb indeed for Pago Rock, saying a $35 chance can't win!! I see what you're saying though, as he will be respected by a lot of punters. He's probably a lesser version of SOB in some ways, and the weight allocation shows that. I like the fact he's a 1400m winner (and also has run two seconds behind Smokin' Joey and Speediness), so I think he can be strong late. Hopefully it's the sort of race where we don't know where to look as they're driving for the line.