The 2014 AFL season looks skinny for premiership contenders at the top end, thick for final-eight candidates through the middle, and has a few teams near certain to prop up the ladder throughout the year.
Today we’re going to look at teams likely to fall short of September action.
The battle to avoid the ignominy of the wooden spoon looks to be between St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne. Some might throw Brisbane into the mix as well, but things would need to go terribly awry.
The poor old Saints were always going to freefall, and hard, once they started to slide from grand final contention post-2010.
Their elite core getting old together was one problem. Topping up with experienced role-players didn’t deliver the elusive premiership, but left them with too much dead wood on the list when the time to replenish came.
Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna are both coming off seasons near any produced at their best, but can’t be expected to maintain the level. Brendon Goddard and Nick Dal Santo are gone, the bravest warrior Lenny Hayes is on his last legs and, to add injury to insult, reigning best-and-fairest winner Jack Steven is out with a long-term injury.
The Demons and Giants have been uncompetitive at best and deplorable at worst over the last two seasons, particularly in 2013.
Over that time they won a combined nine games, with only three coming last year.
Melbourne has started a long process, both of finding top-end quality to grow into a winning midfield, as well as deepening the core of it. They have already shown they’ll win more of the ball this season, and will be intent on keeping it as long as possible, implementing a high-possession game plan.
When they do kick it inside 50, it will be to a forward line potentially high on firepower but currently high on injuries.
GWS must show vast improvement this year. The overall health of the competition demands it.
In any given round, a third to half of their best 22 should now comprise seasoned players from other clubs, with the rest made up of some the best young talent in the game.
For neutral supporters, this season will be about watching the youngsters mature, and working out which one you’d like your club to poach when the time is right.
Last year saw Taylor Adams leave for Collingwood and Dom Tyson for Melbourne among several others, a trend likely to continue over coming years.
Brisbane has all the ingredients for a gun midfield with Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden, Daniel Rich, Pearce Hanley and Matthew Leuenberger complemented by Dayne Zorko and Sam Mayes.
Their limitations occur at either end of the ground, with a batch of players that – at best – could be described as honest.
The beauty of the four sides mentioned thus far is they’re under the tutelage of new coaches, so supporters can realistically hope for a greater than anticipated return.
Fans will be hoping their club can be this year’s version of Ken Hinkley’s Port from 2013.
If any of them can make a run to mid-table and still be in contention for finals at the halfway mark, they will be close to the story of the season at that point.
Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs are unlikely to make the eight, and even the most ardent supporters should be looking at 2014 as a stepping stone towards a finals tilt the year after.
They don’t have the benefit of new coaches, but will be looking to improve and grow under their current ones, Guy McKenna entering his fourth season in charge of the Suns, while Brendan McCartney helms the Dogs for his third season.
There’s every chance these two sides will have top-four midfields in a few years’ time, and their performances should be judged against each other from this point on.
The Dogs already have remarkable young depth in this area, and the Suns have the potential to play short bursts of the most exciting football we might see this year.
Gold Coast do have the Dogs shaded for key position talent, particularly in the form of future All-Australians Rory Thompson and Charlie Dixon. The dynamics of the Bulldog forward line this year will interest observers.
Two of the biggest Victorian clubs, as well as the two from immediately west of the border, are four of the hardest sides to get a line on in 2014.
Essendon played some exhilarating football last season, contending for a top-four berth until deep into the year before they were finally overcome, both by better sides and the toll of a season spent living and working under the ASADA and media microscope.
Their forward line is cobbled together, their backline will be weakened whenever Dustin Fletcher is in the 22, and Jobe Watson will ably lead a reasonably strong midfield.
They are just about the only side I’d say could legitimately finish anywhere from fourth to 12th.
Carlton is a side that looks mediocre on paper going into 2014, and often looked mediocre on the field in 2013. Mick Malthouse’s teams are always greater than the sum of their parts though, and his current list of players is arguably the most versatile in the league.
The question is whether the overall level of these players is high enough to measure up against the best sides over 23 rounds of football.
On a side note, much has been made of how many flags the Swans have to win with Buddy Franklin on their list in order to make the record free-agency acquisition a success. Will the Chris Judd years in the navy blue be deemed a failure when he fails to taste the ultimate success with them?
Adelaide will be a popular pick to jump into the finals this season, falling from a preliminary final in 2012 to an inglorious 11th-placed finish in 2013. A forward line consisting of Taylor Walker, James Podsiadly and Eddie Betts, with Patrick Dangerfield floating through it, certainly has a potent look to it.
Their midfield still has its limitations though, and they strike as a team still building to something a couple of years down the track.
What a story Port were last season. It was the ride that every supporter of a bottom-placed club dreams of, yet seldom does it become reality as it did for the Power in 2013.
The energy of their home crowds was one of the highlights of the season, lifting them over the line in close matches, and thrilling to every piece of inspirational play their team provided, of which there were plenty through the likes of Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines, Travis Boak, Hamish Hartlett, Justin Westhoff and Jay Schulz.
Did they over-achieve last year, or are they a young side with improvement to come? I’d love to see them make the finals again, but fear they will miss out before starting a more methodical climb from 2015.
Join me tomorrow as I look at my prospective finalists.
Macca
Guest
Anthony - Yep still would, the bombers are just as far off as the blues, the only difference has been they have just fallen in against the likes of the bulldogs, Brisbane and GWS where Carlton have just fallen short. With the bombers run home and Watson missing there is no way known they will catch Gold Coast or North so Las Vegas strip clubs are the only thing under threat from the bombers.
Anthony Maguire
Roar Rookie
Maybe not Top 4 for us... But would you still take Carlton's depth over Essendon's Macca? So much for no Jobe, no Essendon. All we need is for our forward line to click and we would be a genuine September threat.
Anthony
Guest
No comment I see?
Anthony
Guest
Sorry, what was that about depth? Flogged North and should have beaten the reigning premiers... I think I could argue my comments were accurate. Carlton can't beat Port or Richmond whilst Essendon look a fairly large chance for the top 4 atm... Carlton haven't much chance next week.
macca
Guest
Yeah sorry Anthony those depth players do look impressive!! How many games have they played? And WInderlich is a quality player but again he is injured! And it is a big "if" to ask Daniher to "hold his own" at full forward and in the ruck at his age, experience and strength. As for the BLues depth this is my best 22 FB: Zach Tuoy, Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker HB: Chris Yarran, Matthew Watson, Dylan Buckley C: Dale Thomas, Brock McLean, Kade Simpson HF: Troy Menzel, Jarrad Waite, Chris Judd FF: Jeff Garlett, Lachie Henderson, Matthew Kreuzer R: Robbie Warnock, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs Int: Tom Bell, Andrew Carrazzo, Ed Curnow, Andrejs Everitt Armfield (105), Cachia (14), Scotland (264), Rowe (10), Casboult (17), Robinson (89), Docherty (13), Cripps(0), Lucas (35), Graham (2), Holman (0), Ellard (41) and McInnes (17) are all outside it, I think I would take our depth over what you have listed.
Anthony
Guest
Macca, I also forgot to put Winderlich in the side ( he is one of the best small forwards in the league when fit). As for your point re Chapman, those injuries were the only hamstring problems he's had in his career and I doubt they'll be a problem for his last few seasons... Even if he doesn't play a full season, I would still expect him to kick more goals than Crameri did in a specialist role... I also left out Jake Melksham and Kyle Hardingham (Hardingham could take Fletcher's back pocket spot, as could Lauchlan Dalgleish). If I remember correctly, Hardingham kicked 4 goals on debut and 2.4 the next week, so I doubt that Essendon will have a lack of scoring power... They have more depth than Carlton as players such as Jetta, Z. Merrett, Dalgleish, Colyer, Thurlow (looks like he could be a good find), Rayner, Gleeson, Ashby and Kavanagh could all press for a senior spot. If Essendon can hold their own in the ruck with Ryder and Daniher rotating between the forward line, I think our midfield is deep enough to beat more heralded sides.
macca
Guest
Oh and you half forward flank is a 32 year old with back and hamstring issues.
macca
Guest
Anthony - Firstly I did say you could argue Essendon list has stood still but with other teams going forward around them it still isn't a great result. And as for youir points; "in reality we have lost a bloke who kicked a maximum 30 goals in a season (Crameri) and replaced him with a triple premiership player in Paul Chapman" In other words you lost your leading goal kicker and replaced him wit a 32 year old who only played 8 games in 2013 with back and hamstring issues - and people argue Dale Thomas was a risk for Carlton to take on! "Essendon lost Crameri and Gumbleton (Crameri effectively for Zach Merrett) via trades, Hille, Lovett-Murray and Davey… We gained Chapman, Merrett (who looks a classy young player), Edwards (a very quick flanker-wingman) and Aylett (who is an unknown quantity). " Yes and by losing Gumbleton and Hille and then haveing Bellchambers get injured it means suddenly you ruck/forward depth is tested and while your young draftees may be classy, quick or even that most sought after quantity "unknown" they are still young and lack the body shape and engine size - they will benefit you in the long run but your immediate depth has been shortened. And even if you actually have improved your list look at those around you - North got higher draft picks and Dal Santo, Adelaide got higher draft picks and Bett's and Podsiadly, Carlton got Cripps, Everitt, Docherty & Thomas, West Coast got higher draft picks and Yeo, Port got higher draft picks and Polec. Looking at your "Best 22" Your ruckman is going to miss the first month and bigmen struggle with interupted preseasons, your full forward is a 20 year old with 5 games under his belt and your back pocket will be 39 in May, Kommer has knee tendenitis and still isn't in full training and Hibberd has missed some of the pre-season with a hamstring. It would be fair to say there are some question marks.
Anthony Maguire
Guest
To the knowledgeable supporters on this page, there are several people who profess to know much more than they really do (Macca). In response to your claim Macca, that Essendon's list has gone backwards, in reality we have lost a bloke who kicked a maximum 30 goals in a season (Crameri) and replaced him with a triple premiership player in Paul Chapman (who could easily kick that many goals and more in a permanent forward role). As for Scott Gumbleton, rarely was he able to take to the field due to injuries and indeed a possible lack of ability. To put it into perspective, Essendon lost Crameri and Gumbleton (Crameri effectively for Zach Merrett) via trades, Hille, Lovett-Murray and Davey... We gained Chapman, Merrett (who looks a classy young player), Edwards (a very quick flanker-wingman) and Aylett (who is an unknown quantity). So really Macca, I'd say the list has been improved by the sharp recruiting of Chapman and several young players with plenty of upside. I think that if all goes right for Essendon (infraction notices aren't issued etc..) they can challenge for the top 4 (they lost to Geelong by 4 goals last year after kicking 1 goal 9 in the third quarter) and even beyond. Best 22: Baguley, Hooker, Fletcher* Dempsey, Hurley, Hibberd Heppell, Watson, Stanton Zaharakis, Carlisle, Chapman Ryder, Daniher, Merrett Foll: Bellchambers, Goddard, Hocking Int: Hocking, Myers, Kommer, Howlett *As long as his form remains solid enough to be selected. Thoughts Cam?
dave
Guest
Mick was gifted 2 premierships at west coast with some amazingly talented freo boys. My nana coulda coached them for the same result.
Macca
Guest
Willo - I agree Mick will have played a big part - but I just disagree that all the credit would lie with him.
Willo
Guest
I agree MM will have a lot to do with the success of Carlton, Their high draft picks haven't quiet reached on field expectations, Last year fitness was an issue to run out games, Mclure, and Mick have talked about the playing group being introverted while other clubs are vocal on field Carlton are mediocre, Their footy skills also seem a long way from top sides, Bringing in Buttifant and laidley is a step in the right direction, Walker and Simpson with positional changes were the top 2013 players, Gibbs latter part of the season under Mick encouraging also their comeback games, He's turning this team around playing tough accountable footy and has a record of getting the best out of players, His experience in identifying whats need for a club to go forward is just what Carlton needed
thank Goddard
Guest
Lamby it ain't going to happen...they admitted to AOD9604, and a type of thymosin...don't know which it was and neither do ASADA...ASADA according to all reports approved the use AOD9604, so the WADA influence is immaterial i'd suggest, Danks went to Australia's representative body for clearance to use and got it... No infraction notices to come
Macca
Guest
Not my posts, but in the future I will try to met the exacting standards of your insightful contributions.
Macca
Guest
I wasn't arguing Cam - just copped a spray for an apparent insult. I am happy to acknowledge I have a bias - but apparently TomC is Nadia Comaneci
Cameron Rose
Expert
The early signs under Roos have been good Marie, but you are coming from a long way back. A long way back. The Dees should beat the Saints in Rd 1, and should avoid the spoon from there.
TomC
Roar Guru
Crossed wires on my end. I see it now.
TomC
Roar Guru
Possibly some crossed wires. I meant a one-to-eighteen ladder, listing all teams from first to last.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's a solid point D.Large. It's hard to imagine so many people are completely across the intricacies and complications of WADA, ASADA and everything related to this drugs saga.
D.Large
Guest
Hopefully deleted to save any more of your dribble.