Who will be flying after Round 5 (Part One)?

While it’s important to peak in the lead up to the finals, the way your team starts the season can make or break their fortunes.

So who will be flying after five rounds and who will be dwelling at the bottom of the ladder?

I’ve looked at each and every game and predicted the outcome based on recent history and preseason form.

This analysis is quite long so it will be posted in two parts.

Part one includes how I see fortunes of the first nine teams, in alphabetical order, after five rounds.

Adelaide – 14th
Not an easy start for the Crows with Geelong and Sydney in the first three weeks.

I also expect them to fall well short against their cross-town rivals, Port Adelaide, in Round 2.

Not the worst of the worst this year so the Crows will overpower St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney.

Brisbane – 17th
2014 isn’t going to be fun for Lions fans and the first five rounds won’t be any different.

I can’t see them beating any of their first five opponents, including the Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.

Carlton – eighth
I have Carlton scraping into the eight but the Blues could be anywhere from sixth to 10th depending on percentage.

The Blues will be too strong for Port Adelaide, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, but Richmond and Essendon will get the best of them.

Carlton is on the rise but will still fall short of the top-tier places.

Collingwood – sixth
The Magpies have a really rough opening run this season, facing the Fremantle Dockers, Sydney Swans, Richmond Tigers, North Melbourne and Geelong before they even make it to ANZAC day.

Perhaps controversially, I see the Pies beating Richmond, Geelong and Sydney based on recent form.

Essendon – 12th
I don’t expect the Bombers to repeat last year’s early season resilience and form.

They are also struggling to pull together a cohesive forward line.

They will be no match for North Melbourne, Hawthorn or Fremantle, but they should be able to take it to St Kilda and upset Carlton.

Fremantle – second
The Dockers will build on their excellent form from last year.

They will take down all-comers in their first four rounds, including the Hawthorn Hawks in the grand final replay.

However Fremantle will go down to the Swans at home in an upset in Round 5.

Geelong – seventh
The Cats will finally begin to slide down the ladder in 2014 but they won’t fall completely off the eight.

After five rounds I have them in seventh position after beating Brisbane, Adelaide and West Coast.

But the Cats won’t be able to beat the Pies or the Hawks at all in 2014.

Gold Coast – 13th
The Suns will be more competitive in 2014 but not quite matching it with the top-eight sides.

Two wins from five isn’t too bad from the emerging powerhouse.

Greater Western Sydney – 16th
The Giants will improve this year but don’t expect them to equal Gold Coast’s third year growth.

One win over St Kilda will be enough to have GWS out of the cellar and sitting happily at 16th on the ladder.

Check back for part two, which will include my complete ladder prediction.