It was meant to be a match race between the best two horses in the country, Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel – a race to determine the best. The 2014 Ranvet Stakes did provide telling answers, but not to the questions we asked.
The Ranvet (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) was won in the last stride by the consistent New Zealand mare Silent Achiever. It was her third victory at weight-for-age and her first at Group 1 level in Australia.
In the 2013 spring, Silent Achiever had raced well in similar grade but without the same success. She was 11th in the Memsie (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) when It’s A Dundeel was fourth and Fiorente sixth. She was sixth in the Underwood (1800m, Group 1, weight-for-age) won by It’s A Dundeel, and a good sixth in the Turnbull (2000m, Group 1, set weights and penalties) when Fiorente (fourth) and Hawkspur (fifth) were outstanding.
Yet on Saturday she turned the tables on It’s A Dundeel (third on Saturday), Hawskpur (fourth) and Fiorente (seventh) to record what is a well deserved victory. Racing much closer to the speed than usual, Silent Achiever was in a position to strike – and she made her kill at the very last moment.
The prey was Carlton House, the horse owned by Queen Elizabeth II and trained by Gai Waterhouse at Randwick. Full credit to Waterhouse – she finally got the enigmatic Carlton House to perform at a level we sometimes saw from him in England.
There’s one English race that stands out like a sore thumb when I think of Carlton House’s European form and that’s the 2012 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (2011m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at Royal Ascot.
It was billed by the English media as a duel between So You Think, the former Australian champion, and the Queen’s horse Carlton House, the favourite when third in the previous season’s Epsom Derby (2423m, Group 1, three-year-olds).
After Carlton House challenged So You Think for the lead with 300m to go – you could hear the pro-English crowd roar for the Queen’s horse as he loomed up – So You Think’s famous ability to sustain a high speed eventually pulled him clear of Carlton House in the final furlong.
It was So You Think’s last race before he was retired to stud. A great swansong!
Carlton House held second narrowly from Farhh, with Reliable Man in a fast-finishing fourth. Australian racing fans would know this form well. Some perhaps wouldn’t be familiar with Farhh, but he was a dual European Group 1 winner last season.
Carlton House and Reliable Man, however, have one very important thing in common. They have both proven to be far superior to It’s A Dundeel at 2000m in Australia.
Reliable Man’s only meeting with It’s A Dundeel came in the 2013 Queen Elizabeth (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at Randwick. It’s A Dundeel was a long odds-on favourite but was no match for Reliable Man in a 2.5-length defeat.
Reliable Man unfortunately sustained a tendon injury only a few metres after the winning post and was subsequently retired to stud.
Then on Saturday, Carlton House – with Kerrin McEvoy on board – made the last 1000m of the Ranvet a staying test. If the Ranvet was a few yards shorter, Carlton House would’ve won. In any event, Carlton House finished 1.8 lengths ahead of It’s A Dundeel, who was third.
Considering Saturday’s run was Carlton House’s best performance in Australia by somewhere between five and eight lengths, it wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect further improvement as the autumn progresses. We are only beginning to see the quality in Carlton House.
Carlton House gave the mighty So You Think – a winner of ten Group 1s across both hemispheres – a great race over 2000m. Reliable Man was far from disgraced in the same race when he ran fourth.
Does anyone today think that It’s A Dundeel, or even Fiorente, would give So You Think a good race? All the evidence points to a one-sided defeat.
If the Ranvet didn’t excite you as a weight-for-age contest then you were correct to conserve your energy for something better. All the Ranvet showed was that Australia’s middle-distance gallopers are very average when compared to what we have come to expect over the years. It seems like we’ve come to this conclusion a hundred times – So You Think excepted– over the past six or seven years.
So what can we make of the run of It’s A Dundeel?
All fanfare aside, It’s A Dundeel was a creditable third. The Ranvet was a race dominated from the front. He had a gorgeous run in midfield and never shirked his task down the straight to grab a place.
I thought his last 100m was much better than it was first-up in the Chipping Norton (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age), when he looked a tired racehorse at the finish. He did well to hold off a flying Hawkspur in the last 50m on Saturday.
Of what we’ve seen of It’s A Dundeel at weight-for-age, all we can expect is creditable runs. If he wins, as he did on slow ground in the Underwood last September, it will probably be a narrow margin.
We have learnt that Australian Group 1 weight-for-age racing is It’s A Dundeel’s right level. He has to earn every placing he gets at the caper. He’s a winning chance in the Queen Elizabeth next month, but only one of many.
On another point, I thought it was interesting that two strappers led It’s A Dundeel around the mounting yard on Saturday. It subdued the stallion.
It’s A Dundeel is a horse who has always performed well when allowed to let off some pre-race steam. I don’t know how often two handlers have been used on It’s A Dundeel in the paddock, but I have a clear recollection of seeing it for the first time on 2012 Cox Plate day before the Vase (2040m, Group 2, three-year-olds).
That was the first time It’s A Dundeel disappointed in his career and it was a telling defeat at the hands of Super Cool. Of course, 18 months down the track, Super Cool now holds a remarkable 4-0 record in head-to-head match-ups with It’s A Dundeel.
And that stat is further proof of It’s A Dundeel’s mortality.
What happened to Fiorente?
His seventh was incredibly disappointing, though the run was probably forgivable on face value.
Fiorente was caught wide, so Damien Oliver had to use early petrol to get the Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) winner into a less exposed position. In the end he had to race without cover for the entire trip. In the last 600m, Fiorente gave very little.
Imported European stayers like Fiorente can disappoint at 2000m or a mile, especially if they are racing at the same distance for the second time in a row. Generally, they struggle for speed in those circumstances.
They can compete over shorter than suitable distances when fresh from a spell, but once the freshness is trained out, they can disappoint at unsuitable trips.
So perhaps Fiorente has genuine excuses. He was probably looking for 2400m on Saturday and his cause wasn’t helped when he had to sustain a tough run.
But I don’t buy it.
Until Saturday, Fiorente had never run poorly in Australia. An examination of last year’s Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) is quite revealing here. Like the Ranvet, Fiorente was racing at 2000m for the second time in a row in the 2013 Cox Plate. And like the Ranvet, Fiorente got trapped wide and worked around the field.
But in the Cox Plate, Fiorente did a lot more work than he did on Saturday and he was exposed just as badly, yet was outstanding in third.
If Fiorente was going to turn in the odd bad performance, he would’ve started doing it in the Cox Plate. The real concern for Fiorente and his trainer Waterhouse is that this autumn, the six-year-old stallion has begun to pull in his races. Waterhouse has obviously tried to keep Fiorente as fresh as possible so he can perform in 2000m races, but it is bringing his bad manners to the fore.
When he won the Australian Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) earlier in the month, Fiorente began to pull at the 800m mark. On Saturday, when Oliver tried to restrain Fiorente down the back straight, he started to pull for extra rein. It forced Oliver’s hand. Fiorente had to go forward because Oliver needed his mount to relax.
In the end, it was futile. Fiorente wasn’t in the mood to be a racehorse, and he was soundly beaten. Getting Fiorente back to his best for the Queen Elizabeth is going to require the training performance of Waterhouse’s illustrious career.
I’m firmly of the belief that 2000m is not a distance Fiorente is comfortable at, and now that he has turned in his worst Australian run, the task is all the more difficult.
I wonder if Waterhouse is considering the Sydney Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) instead of the Queen Elizabeth as the grand final for Fiorente.
Both races are on April 19 and the former would be a lot more suitable.
Phil McGrawhan
Guest
I wouldn't be sacking either horse yet as they had a bumping duel not long after the start, both essentially failed because of it IMO, one things for sure there wasn't 8 horses better than fiorante in that field, both will run 1-2 in the QE IMO.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great piece as usual Justin, what a fascinating race, and what a superb comments section today. Well played everyone. Personally, I'm not too inclined to read much into any races where the leaders fight it out, and it also happened too often on Saturday as a whole. Did the best horses win the races, or was it just the best on-pace horses that were well-ridden? Certainly a lot of horses, especially in the G1’s, just looked like they were plugging away. Too many for mine. To that extent, Hawkspur was superb, as was Royal Descent in the Coolmore. Earthquake did what she had to do at the front, but if the track is fair in the Slipper, she can sit anywhere from handy to mid-field and will simply win. Any further back than that, like Samarady two years ago, and you’re in the lap of the Gods to some extent. Alpha Miss was a real watch horse too, and will be a leading contender in the Sires and Champagne if she stretches out. As for Fiorente, I see Justin’s point, but Oliver rode a terrible race. Digging him out of the barriers to find a position he didn’t end up taking, then shuffled back and allowed McDonald to dictate to him. Not his finest hour, but the horse clearly was looking for further so it mattered little to the result.
kv joef
Guest
i dunno blake maybe he already had the directions from sepoy's year :).
Blake
Guest
Maybe they didn't want Mr Snowden to drive to The Gap.
kv joef
Guest
I wonder why darley took long john and complacent to the UAE/Europe and left Guelph here? "who knows what lurks in the hearts of men?"
Blake
Guest
Snowden made a defendable call at the time. That said, he zigged when he should have zagged.
Bondy
Guest
Some interesting cases made for Guelph she generally at most race tracks she went to would run the fastest last 3 or 600 of the day ,though also its damning that hardly one fillies come out after the 1.000 guineas and won a race, terrifying statistics. Hypothetically if I owned Guelph I wouldn't have run her in the Cox Plate "saved for the Autumn" but am convinced she would of given Shamus Award at the time a dead set hiding. You'd have been wheeled off to the nut farm if you said Shamus Award would beat Guelph last spring. She was I think at 11-2 13-2 or $6.50- 7.50 for the plate last year in some markets, thats solid. The conundrums of the turf.
kv joef
Guest
Yo blake. Quantum Theory rules :).
Blake
Guest
Unlike you, I can't be certain of an event that didn't take place. What I can be certain of is facts. Guelph was easily the best 3yo in training during the Spring. She didn't have an overly busy campaign. She ran the usual 4 times. She won three, and only the Guineas win required a decent effort. What was shaping up as a great Cox Plate ended up being an average renewal at best - a good, not great, 3yo colt stole it. In October last year Guelph must have been at least 2-3 lengths better than Shamus Award over any distance. So futile to run in the Cox Plate? Hardly. If the owners weren't Darley but a standard group of owners, I'm quite confident she would have run.
andrew
Guest
my 2 cents. when you line up all the overseas form and how it stacks, the biggest mystery to me is why sea moon isn't firing over here. his overseas form is better than carlton house, fiorente, reliable man. maybe he will recapture that ability in the spring. silly points about Guelph and cox plate. futile in any event. she didn't run as she had had a busy 2yo season, and I would have thought her current form if anything proves that. she beat mays dream in thous guineas - who has been beaten in her 3 subsequent runs (for a variety of reasons, but still beaten) and gregers who has been beaten in her 4 subsequent runs. in fact, not a single horse ran in thous guineas has won a race since. sorry, govida rock won a maiden. what did people make of a fave on this forum. sertorious. I thought it proved he belonged at this level (or what constitutes G1 WFA racaing at present) and not far off them. I think it bodes well for his caul cup prospects. he should get rating high enough now to get 53-54kgs and secure a start. gee, he will be hard to beat, sustaining a strong gallop in a hcp over 2400m. back in winners list weekend atleast with platelet, office bearer and zanbagh. such a shame NLTM is out for autumn. was hoping he would bankroll my trip on derby day to syd.
JC
Guest
Good summary and opinions on IADD and Fiorente. Personally I think while IADD is a very good horse he is simply not as good as the hype that surrounds him. Sure he might be able to go on and win the QE, but he has started at short prices in many G1 races now where he hasn't delivered, so Justin you have it spot on with your thoughts on him. With Fiorente I just wonder whether he's had enough for now. He had a massive spring, his prep was very carefully mapped out and that resulted with a peak performance in the Melbourne Cup. This time however he's a bit all over the place and I'm not convinced the connections have settled on a target race. He was great down in Melbourne and he did his job winning the Australian Cup. But to me it just seems a big ask for him to have a long prep this autumn.
Blake
Guest
It is a great pity Happy Trails is out of action at the moment. He would have been another (much needed) quality miler/2000m contender to add some spice to the big races over the next month or so. In fact, with Fiorente failing twice now at 2000m and IAD suggesting again this is not his ideal distance and Shamus Award not being up to the very highest grade this season .... I think a case can be made to say that Happy Trails is the best middle horse in the country at present.
Luke Andrews
Guest
In all of this we may also have overlooked the good news story. The kiwis are absolutely flying atm! They have great depth about them at 1600m+ and are serious contenders over The Championships. I am really excited to see Puccini in the lead up to the Derby. I think with the continued refusal by the breeding industry to breed stayers, the kiwi grasp on the Derby is going to get stronger as 3yr old staying racing in Aus is much weaker because we haven't exported our top-liners out by this age. Hopefully breeders come to the party and in years to come we have the sons of Americain, Reliable Man and Fiorente fighting out the finish to our classics.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Great read and insights from the comments, all. Wonderful.
Luke Andrews
Guest
That's the thing. If the track isn't a bog who else would you want to be on? Earthquake seems all over this slipper. But if it is wet, Mossfun will be tough to beat.
Luke Andrews
Guest
I think he made him pull by being too aggressive. Watch the footage and he is revving him up all the way to the crossing and then never gets him fully back underneath him because he hasn't taken the sit the horse enjoys. He got into all the trouble because he was a length in front of where he should have been, and only got there because he pushed him early. If he sat beside Gondokoro instead of making him keep working he ends up with the run of the race. He got involved in the tactics too early. I probably am being harsh (but it's good to have an opinion), but that wasn't a great Rosehill ride and riding Sydney tracks isn't exactly what Oliver does best. And the ride of Rawiller in the Turnbull was at least the right way to ride him except he simply missed the bus, but this was wrong intentioned and put him exactly where you didn't want him. Nothing in the straight suggested he would have won, but it would have been a fairer representation of the horse.
Brad
Guest
When we look back on the career of iadd in a few years time, I think how well he's remembered will really be down to if he manages a win in a big feature. After an awesome 3year old year if he fails it will be nothing but a disappointment. There's talk today that he may bypass the BMW and QE, and instead go to the doncaster and that might be his best shot. 2000 has to be a definite concern for him now and a mile might suit. I really hope he manages to salvage this campaign because he is really the only one of a good crop of last years 3 year olds not retired to stud. Nothing he is doing at the moment will suggest to those that did retire their horses that maybe they should have kept them going. The potential is there though, he looked so flat but still beat hawkspur who looked to have a pretty good run. If he clicks this prep, and I really hope he does, I don't think there's many better. Also so happy for Silent achever who till now has really lived by her name up until now. I'll defiantly be looking for at probably some pretty healthy odds at the business end of the autumn. May have a new favourite in Carlton house, what a run and what a ride, really turned the race on its head! looking forward to more great racing next weekend!
Scuba
Guest
I have to say I was a little concerned by the way she lugged out in the straight. Then again (a) Crystal Lily (I think) did it much worse in a Slipper and still won (and Earthquake's stablemate Helmet was much worse in other legs of the 2yo triple crown) and (b) I'm struggling to find any other horse I want to back to beat her.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Yeah tend to agree. Although after getting scared out of Overreach by the rain last year, I might just be loading up regardless of the track!
Blake
Guest
If Earthquake draws a half decent barrier and track is dead or better, she will walk in the Slipper. I'd take whatever they are offering.