There’s no episode of The Roar Rugby Show this week as time got away from me, so I thought I’d start a discussion on Wallaby selections to keep us occupied.
With nine rounds of Super Rugby remaining before the Wallabies play France, no player is guaranteed a spot as injuries may still play a role and there is sufficient time for form to change Ewen McKenzie’s mind.
However, 7 of the 15 starting positions are lock-ins barring injury – Stephen Moore, James Horwill, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Quade Cooper, Matt Toomua and Israel Folau.
Moore is only challenged by Tatafu Polota-Nau but Moore’s continued his really good form from last year, while Polota-Nau has been good without being anywhere near his best. In fact I wonder whether we’re going to see Polota-Nau’s best again.
Horwill is the best lock in Australia by some margin. He regained form last year on the end-of-year tour and has kept it for the Reds this season. There is no other Australian lock who matches his physicality.
Fardy was one of the standouts for the Wallabies in 2013 and his Super Rugby form for the Brumbies has been excellent. While he can play lock as well, his performances at number 6 for the Wallabies last year make him an automatic selection in that position.
Hooper has continued his excellent form of the last two seasons. That puts him well ahead of Liam Gill, and David Pococok is obviously not an option this season. Hooper doesn’t play as I like a 7 to play – he’s not an ‘on-baller’ but he offers things that they don’t, and there’s no denying he is a key player for the Wallabies.
Cooper is in really good form and fits McKenzie’s preferred game plan. He will be the player McKenzie builds the team around for the 2015 Rugby World Cup and it won’t surprise me if he continues as vice captain.
Toomua may be playing 10 for the Brumbies but he’s showing exactly what he did at 12 for the Wallabies last year – he’s a good playmaker and his defence is fantastic. He’s also the perfect foil for Cooper at 10. Kurtley Beale may continue to play well at 12 for the Waratahs but I don’t think he’ll be first choice for the Wallabies and I don’t think Kyle Godwin will get a look-in based on his form.
Folau will probably be the first picked by McKenzie – he’s already one of the top five players in world rugby. He may be the only player no one argues about on this list.
I’ll add another three who are in good form, have the experience and are regular selections – Rob Simmons, Will Genia and Tevita Kuridrani.
Many of you will be jumping up and down regarding Simmons but he’s playing better than any of the other candidates outside of Horwill. Hugh Pyle has been disappointing this season and is off to France next year. Kane Douglas has been good without looking like a Test player. Will Skelton has shown only glimpses of what he’ll eventually be capable of.
Simmons is also a key lineout player and if for no other reason, he’ll be selected alongside Horwill.
While Genia hasn’t been in scintillating form, he’s been pretty good. I agree with those who are frustrated by the amount of poor kicking we see from him in Super Rugby but he’s still the best halfback in Australia.
Luke Burgess has been poor for the Rebels and I’m not surprised that Nic Stirzaker started ahead of him last week. Nick Phipps is playing better than he did at the Rebels but isn’t up to Test standard. Nic White is making just as many mistakes with his kicking as Genia and isn’t running either – he’d be the backup.
Kuridrani hasn’t played much rugby in 2014 but was good for the Wallabies last year and even in the limited match time he’s had for the Brumbies this year he’s shown he’s in good form. McKenzie will want to continue his development outside Cooper and will be looking to channel a lot of the wide attack through Kuridrani running straight and hard to get the Wallabies over the gain line.
That’s seven absolutes and three near certainties for me. Who could fill the remaining five spots?
Loosehead prop – James Slipper or Scott Sio would be my leading candidates. Benn Robinson wouldn’t be, based on form. I’ve rated him as one of the Wallabies’ best and for me he used to be, but his scrummaging since the introduction of the new laws hasn’t been up to scratch. Hopefully someone is working with him on his technique. We haven’t seen enough this season from Toby Smith to warrant selection.
Tighthead prop – Sekope Kepu is the incumbent but Ben Alexander has been performing well for the Brumbies. I’ve been critical of Alexander in the past because of his poor technique. However, he looks to have made some adjustments to his feet positioning this season and is much more stable.
A front row of Sio, Moore and Alexander is likely given how well they’ve scrummaged together for the Brumbies. However, I won’t be surprised if Slipper gets the nod ahead of Sio. Kepu will be the remaining prop in the squad.
Number 8 – regardless of the fact he’s leaving for France, Ben Mowen’s form hasn’t been good enough to feature in the short list, so it comes down to Wycliff Palu or Scott Higginbotham.
Palu is in slightly better form than Higginbotham but the question of durability leading into the Tests against France won’t go away unless he continues strongly. Higginbotham has been good for the Rebels – very good in a couple of matches – so is a real option. This one’s too close to call, it will be great to see what they can do to grab the opportunity.
The two wing positions are both very open. Joe Tomane hasn’t shown great form this season, Henry Speight isn’t eligible and Christian Feauai-Sautia is injured. I don’t think Jesse Mogg or Kurtley Beale are genuine options as wingers. I’d be looking at Nic Cummins, Luke Morahan or Adam Ashley-Cooper. Ashley-Cooper is likely to grab one spot and the other is too close to call at this stage.
Oh and by the way, James Horwill will be the captain – you can lock that in, barring injury of course.
Ra
Guest
Amen LAN Beale is a machine, a big match player, and a big match winner. He is definitely amongst the rugby worlds gifted and talented sportsmen. He is Aussies Carlos Spencer and that's probably why I love him as a player and Aussie fans have a love/hate affair with him and Kiwis really understand and sympathize with him and all Aussie fans finger nails. Your 10/12 stocks are really high at the moment with the talented Leali'ifano, Toomua, Godwin, etc etc etc but your 13 stocks are not so good. The guys you put in there in place of AAC are talented young fellas but just seem to be a bit rushed at the higher level. The guy I see to lock up that crucial position is Matt Toomua. Like Beale Toomua is a big game player. I don't need to talk about the array of gifts he brings to that position because you all know them. AAC is still the Man. And 14 would be his best position at Test level if not 13. He is such a great finisher and solid defender and he already has a combination with Toomua who actually links well with any body and has the final pass ability to send wingers away. Pick anyone you like for the 12 from your great pool of talent. McCabe, Lialiifano, Harris, and Beale are all big time performers and of course young Godwin and others too.
Billy Bob
Guest
How many tests have you scored the winning points in, ChrisT? Beale is 'not Test anything'? Spoken from the utter certainty of the armchair.
Chris Kiama
Guest
Kuridrani is still not mature enough IMHO to dislodge AAC from the starting team, where his attacking and defensive solidity is a real bonus. Izzy. Toomua. Cooper. All locks. Cummins for one wing because he just is. The other wing is difficult because there aren't any world beaters showing great form. Tomane was dreadful in his cameo last week.. Betham might get a run but I bet Link will play Kuridrani at 13 and AAC at 14. Not as stable as it should be. SOmething has gone amiss between Genia's ears. ATM I rate him behind White and Phipps. He'll get picked though. Hooper and Fardy easy picks on the flamks, both in terrific form. 8 is not easy. Cliff is great if in form (he is) and his body holds up (?). I think I would prefer Higgers as both a good runner and a jumper too. Massively disagree with Simmons and Horwill. Douglas played a screamer against the Stormers and has lifted probably 30%. Pyle is not in great form. Carter is good. For me it's a lottery but I bet Link will pick Slipper, Horwill and Douglas. Moore is a shoo-in but the props generally are not in great form. Slipper pleasantly surprised me on the Northern Tour but Alexander is a bloody seagull and a penalty magnet. Kepu is a better choice. Sio should make the bench so he gets the experience. He will be a star in a year or two. Wthe backs bench will probably be White (Genia starting), Beale (covers plenty and dangerous against tiring legs) and I would have Kuridrani (AAC can cover wing and FB if necessary), Betham if Kuridrani plays. Forwards bench TPN, Alexander (for lack of a better TH option), Sio, Douglas/Simmons (Horwill will start), Gill (down on form but who is better?). No room for Mogg, who is too up and down and can only cover 15.
Who?
Guest
It's always interesting seeing people talking about Aussie locks... Simmons has to be there, because, seemingly, no other Aussie lock knows how to run a lineout. That said, he was one of the form forwards of the Spring Tour (I'd argue he was better than Kev), and so deserves to be there for that reason, too. That said, his ability in the lineout - especially with the loss of Mowen to France - makes Higginbotham even more critical to have in the 23. Even if Palu were fit. I've seen some calling for Beale at 12. Including Kiwis. I think the Kiwis are calling for that purely because they're salivating at the prospect of Nonu running at Beale at 12... 12 has to be Toomua, or Lealiifano. Any thoughts, Mr Allen, on the Reds..? They look, to me, exactly as I despaired they might... Too much sideways, not enough variation between the options. Doesn't matter how much individual talent you have, if your programmed options provide nothing useful for your 10, you're not going to break the line very often...
Magic Sponge
Guest
Combesy how were them stats. Force played all over them.
ChrisT
Guest
Good on yer Wozza et al - disagree away. The good news is, reality will prove all of you, or me, right, eventually :)
Wozza
Guest
We're not missing your point Chris. We're disagreeing with it!
Wozza
Guest
Absolutely!
Wozza
Guest
Absolutely!
Terry Kidd
Guest
Beale is a proven test player, Mogg proved not to be a test player ...... gee some Wallaby selection suggestions stated here need a hell of a lot of justfication. Mogg has speed and a big left foot and nothing else .... exactly where do you see him fitting into McKenzies' plans ???
Terry Kidd
Guest
Agreed
RobC
Roar Guru
I think Hooper is a great footballer. But when a better traditional 7 comes along the lines described by Scott and ZG: Hooper will have to move, though retain a spot somewhere - a nice headache. He reminds me of AAC except for backrow. Given the current situation, WBs will live and die on our backrower stock. These are the guys that should be attracted, developed and turned into stars, not the pretty boys in backline. So we can beef up the talent pipeline for flankers, literally. Someone wrote a great article about #8 a few months back. http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/10/25/number-eight-the-quintessential-rugby-player/. Similar thing could be said about flankers in general
Zero Gain
Guest
Scott, completely agree with everything you have written. You are wasting your time trying to explain your assessment of Hooper which is absolutely spot on. I have constantly said that he is a good player but does not play the role we need to defeat the AB's or the Boks. But his fans just seem to see his little Koala eyes and want to make him Wallaby captain never to be dropped. He has never dominated an All Black back row the way Pocock has and I don't think he ever will. He does look somewhat stronger this year and is still young though so I will wait and see. Higgers showed last night what he can add to a team, an X factor that Palu (as good as he is) and Fardy could never offer at no. 8. Remember the last time we beat the AB's, a guy with a big Afro scored the decisive try that proved to be the turning point in that match. We need that type of attacking skill in our lose three somewhere and Higgers gives us that. Spot on with your assessment of Genia, still by far the best half we have and a proven combination with QC. The most pleasing thing is the almost total silence of the QC haters. No doubt that are waiting to pounce on any fumble or stumble, their brave fingers poised over their poisoned keyboards....
Helena
Guest
Scott, we missed your Rugby Show this weekend - we love it ! Thanks.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Big call
Digby
Roar Guru
Hi Jez, Scott, It seems to me that refs seem to be awarding penalties against the first player they see on an angle, as opposed to why they may be on an angle, thoughts?
Yeah Joe, you may have a point there, I must be honest I haven't noticed that he has lost pace, I just believe he shows the kind of commitment that inspires and bring confidence to those around him, I would put him at 13 rather than wing just to solify the midfield defence as well due to that attitude you require on defence
Scott Allen
Expert
Check out my article next week because I've decided to tackle that topic.
Joe Blow
Guest
That's true BB. But does he still have the outright speed to command selection in the starting side as a winger? He too is a great utility covering every position in the backs outside of 9 and 10. Having him on the bench with Beale and a halfback gives you some serious firepower for late in the game and good insurance if a key player (Cooper/Folau/Toomoa) go down.
Harry Jones
Expert
Good point, Boomeranga. I see him the same way. Never hangs his head. Seems a lot like JdV that way. Positive player. Do you remember his "two tackles in one" Superman bit? Great player.