It’s day one of The Championships, and what a feast of racing awaits us. The TJ Smith has assembled eleven Group 1 winners, nine of which have won this season. Talk about a deep field of quality that is in hot form.
What a hot race it’s going to be, as it should be for $2.5M in prizemoney.
2014 TJ Smith preview
1.Buffering
Buffering is a three-time Group 1 weight-for-age winner this season, memorably stringing together the Manikato, VRC Classic and the Winterbottom late in the spring.
He may have been the nation’s best sprinter at the time, but the form behind him on those occasions, through Moment of Change and Shamexpress, couldn’t get close to Lankan Rupee in the Newmarket a month or so ago.
His first-up run was okay, beaten just over a length and a half behind Villa Verde after leading them along strongly, and he’ll have derived great benefit from it coming into this.
Wet form: His stats look good with a win from two starts on the slow, and two wins and a second on the heavy, but these results were all as a younger horse and/or in much weaker grade.
The two times he’s seen really wet tracks at Group 1 weight-for-age, he was beaten an average of six lengths. It’s a concern.
2.Gordon Lord Byron
International horses should be more of a known quantity in Australia than they sometimes seem to be, and many punters were left to rue Gordon Lord Byron taking out the George Ryder at $19.
He’s now won Group 1s over 1200m, 1400m and 1500m, as well as running two very competitive fourth’s in the Hong Kong Mile, so his versatility and quality is unquestioned. For those wondering about the drop back in distance into the TJ Smith, his Group 1 win over 1200m was three weeks after winning over 1600m, so it poses no problems whatsoever.
Wet form: After his George Ryder triumph, he now has authoritative Group 1 wins on the slow and heavy, so it holds no fears. Perhaps it is a case of the wetter the better for Gordon Lord Byron.
3.Lankan Rupee
Lankan Rupee is the new sprinting star of the Australian turf, and currently the highest rated horse in the country, despite never even having run in a Group 1 or 2 weight-for-age race.
He has now won five races in a row though, moving through the stakes grades, culminating in the rarely achieved Oakleigh Plate / Newmarket Handicap Group 1 double. He was well up in the weights for these victories, but walked away with them in such dominant style, there was little doubt that his best was yet to come.
He’s the clear and rightful favourite here.
Wet form: He’s never struck a track rated worse than dead four so is something of an unknown.
4.Spirit of Boom
Spirit of Boom has been the Buffering of the autumn, chasing home a potential superstar in Lankan Rupee twice before finally cracking it for his own deserved Group 1 win in the William Reid at Moonee Valley last month.
No sprinter has raced in greater heart over the last twelve months, having twelve starts (seven Group 1s and five Group 2s), and only once finishing further back than fourth – when he struck a wet track in the BTC Cup. The Sydney weather is a shame, because he’d be in this up to his ears on good ground.
Wet form: Ten starts on slow or heavy ground for two wins on slow tracks when he was a two-year-old. He has run some okay races, but doesn’t really go a yard in it at this level.
5.Rebel Dane
Outside of the three year olds, Rebel Dane will be the most lightly raced horse in the field, but does already have a Group 1 victory to his name, pulling out all stops to gun down the ever-consistent Fontelina in the Rupert Clarke Stakes in the spring.
Glen Boss spruiks him up every time he gets off the horse, and is convinced he has matured and can graduate to the top of the tree. Beating this field at weight-for-age in his first-up assignment as a mature autumn four-year-old would certainly be his crowning glory.
Wet form: A slow track win at his second ever start, along with the narrowest of seconds to Pierro on the heavy in the Group 2 Hobartville, suggests he can handle any going.
6.Tiger Tees
Tiger Tees has always been a talented horse, but has returned to his best form this year after a wayward 2013 where he disappointed in every start.
He now has two wins from three starts this campaign, including relishing the rain-affected ground to take out the Group 1 Galaxy at Rosehill two weeks ago. It’s a different proposition to take on a weight-for-age field however, especially when he was found wanting under the conditions in the Challenge Stakes, but the more the rain falls, the higher he’s likely to finish.
Wet form: Four wins and a 0.2 length second from six slow and heavy track starts, with his only failure in the afore-mentioned annus horribilus of 2013. A swimmer.
7.Bel Sprinter
Bel Sprinter continues to be slowly away whenever he makes his way to the races, a problem that seems to be getting worse, and he will ultimately go down as a wasted talent.
This time last year he was putting together his best campaign, winning the Galaxy, running third to Black Caviar in the TJ Smith, and second to Lucky Nine in the Singapore International Sprint. He showed signs of getting back to that form with his close-up fourth in the Challenge to Villa Verde, so could be a place chance at bolter’s odds.
Wet form: His last start Galaxy eighth was his first exposure to wet ground, and he worked home okay in it.
8.Shamexpress
Shamexpress won the Newmarket Handicap as a three-year-old last season, but hasn’t tasted success since, despite running some very good races in top grade.
He was close behind Buffering in the spring, and Snitzerland earlier this campaign, but couldn’t make an impression behind Lankan Rupee down his favoured straight in this year’s Newmarket. He’s racing consistently, but might just be a length or two off the very best, and needs everything to go right.
Wet form: One slow track start for a second as a two-year-old, when his class would have carried him along way.
9.Fontelina
Fontelina has been agonisingly close to Group 1 success twice this season, being nosed out by two of his competitors on Saturday – Rebel Dane in the Rupert Clarke in the spring and Spirit of Boom in the William Reid last month.
He tends to run his best races at double-figure odds, and will again be a lucrative price. Half of his twenty-four starts have been at Group 1 level without claiming victory there, and although he’s still improving and capable of running well, it will be some achievement to break his duck in this field.
Wet form: Two of his wet track failures have been over mile trips, but he does have a 1.4 length fifth to Pierro on the slow when jumping at $151, so he might be able to spring a surprise.
10.Famous Seamus
Famous Seamus is a very good lower grade sprinter that does mix it with some very good horses from time to time.
He came steaming home at massive odds first-up behind Villa Verde in the Challenge, beating home many better-credentialled rivals, and wasn’t too far behind Lankan Rupee in the spring when visiting Melbourne, but it’s hard to think he can beat all of these.
Wet form: His stats are okay, but his heavy track win was narrow against ordinary horses, and his slow track second was when comfortably defeated behind Malavio. He couldn’t get going in the Galaxy last start.
11.Sessions
Sessions has shown enough in his career to suggest he’s capable of winning races at the elite level, but hasn’t quite been able to get the job done yet.
He’s finished on the heels of the place-getters both starts this campaign, in the Challenge and the Galaxy, and will enjoy progressing to the 1200m of the TJ Smith. He was right with the likes of Buffering and Spirit of Boom during the spring, and is one that looks over the odds in the early markets.
Wet form: The Galaxy was his only start on ground worse than dead, and he wasn’t far away once he got going.
12.Aeronautical
Aeronautical is like the girl with the curl, either very, very good or very, very bad.
He’s run some blazing races that could see him be competitive here, being beaten by the barest margins in races like the Newmarket last March or The Shorts in September, but even then he’d need to everything to go his way.
Wet form: The classic wet track ‘duffer’ that will surely be scratched if those conditions eventuate. He couldn’t even get close to winning on soft tracks when he was still a maiden.
13.See The World
See The World is a handy Listed or Group 3 handicap sprinter who knows only one way – get back to last and come flying home. A midfield finish in the Galaxy was about his level, and connections would be rapt with a similar performance here.
It’s a struggle to see him passing more than half the field in this sort of race, but his slow track record might mean he won’t be disgraced.
Wet form: Has been placed multiple times at Listed level on soft tracks, so he does enjoy it when the rain strikes, but he’d need most of the field to be scratched at the barriers for it to help him win.
14.Snitzerland
Gerald Ryan’s flying machine has proven right back to her best this campaign, scoring her debut Group 1 win in the Lightning Stakes, and fighting on bravely for second in the Challenge Stakes when Villa Verde jumped out of the ground to beat her.
Let’s not forget she ran Lankan Rupee to a head in the spring, and meets him 4.5kg’s better for the experience, even though he has improved several lengths since then. She doesn’t have to lead in what is sure to be a high-pressure race, and is a strong chance to hit the front at some stage in the straight if she can take a sit.
Wet form: Unseen on ground worse than dead, but her sire Snitzel was a Group 1 winner on the heavy.
15.Steps In Time
Steps In Time is one of many in this field to have broken through for a deserved Group 1 win this year, taking out the Coolmore Classic for mares over 1500m last start thanks to her front-running ability and a perfectly rated Jim Cassidy ride.
She has beaten the boys at stakes level before, and carried weight doing it, so can be competitive. She ran Catkins to a head giving her weight over 1200m earlier this campaign and beat her last time out, so her form is true. It’s going to be some battle between her and Buffering for the lead.
Wet form: She has a 4.5 length Wiggle Stakes win on slow ground, as well as a Hawkesbury Guineas third, while her failure was forgivable when beaten a long way in the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara. She’d been up for a while and hadn’t been in great form.
16.Zoustar
Zoustar put in arguably the most disappointing run of the autumn when beaten over four lengths on a deteriorating track first-up in the Canterbury Stakes. A notable drifter in the market, he ran accordingly and was one of the first beaten.
His best is dazzling and powerful, seen in his dual-state Group 1 wins in the spring – the Golden Rose and Coolmore Stud Stakes. It remains to be seen if he can recapture that form. If he fails once more, it may be the last time we see Zoustar at the races before he is retired to stud.
Wet form: Zoustar won his maiden on the slow on debut, but Chris Waller has stated that he won’t be running on a soft track.
17.Sweet Idea
Sweet Idea is a remarkably consistent three-year-old filly, finishing out of the placings only once in her twelve starts, and even that was only beaten 2.3 lengths in the Surround a couple of runs back.
She had the job of carting the field up to Steps In Time in the Coolmore Classic last start, but in the straight ran away from the chasing pack. She would have won the race in another bound. Sweet Idea strikes as an adaptable filly, so the drop in distance shouldn’t be a concern, and she rates in the top half dozen chances.
Wet form: Her only exposure was this time last year, when she won the Silver Slipper narrowly on the heavy, and then hung on for third in the Golden Slipper on a slow track. Another by Snitzel, she should handle whatever is thrown at her.
18.Villa Verde
Villa Verde is a very nice filly that looks to have matured since joining Anthony Cummings this preparation.
She was backed in from $19 to $14 first-up and proved the money right when taking out the weight-for-age Challenge Stakes, defeating many of the rivals she’ll be meeting here. She followed that win up with the run of the race in the Galaxy when getting too far back, but still flying home for third.
A major player, but with the best sprinters in Australia here, will be at odds.
Wet form: Her third in the Galaxy on the slow suggests the wet holds no fears, and she also has a second place on slow ground from the spring when she probably should have won.
19.Irish Fling (1st emergency) – scratched
20.Flamberge (2nd emergency)
Flamberge is developing into a nice horse, and won’t be the worse horse in the race if he makes the field.
A Standish Handicap winner, he was superb when wide in the Oakleigh Plate, very good in defeat in the Newmarket, and finally got his reward when leading all the way at Rosehill last week to win the Sebring Stakes.
Wet form: His first three career starts were all on heavy and slow tracks, for two wins, and his heavy track win last week tells us he relishes the slops.
21.Peron (3rd emergency)
Peron was identified as a potential Group 1 winner earlier in her career, but has thus far been unable to land a blow beyond Listed level, despite showing some excellent signs in mares only Group races.
She’ll be big odds if she gets in the field, attempting to take this race down first-up.
Wet form: Her Listed race win was on the slow and then she ran evenly on the ground next start at Group 1 level.
Selections: 1.Lankan Rupee 2.Villa Verde 3.Snitzerland 4.Gordon Lord Byron
It’s not often a $2M race has to settle for third banana, but such is the Australian Derby’s fate in the revamped autumn racing schedule.
The Rosehill Guineas is the clear and obvious form reference, with the first five horses in betting all coming from the race, including the first four home. Because it was held on a slow track, punters should be able to get a clear line in similar conditions.
Criterion exploded away to win at Rosehill, using the time-honoured technique in Sydney of railing up on soft ground while other horses are moved to supposed better ground six to ten horses off the fence.
Hugh Bowman had no problem saving many lengths and having plenty to spare as he crossed the line. Drawn in barrier one, that combination will likely look to do the same again.
Thunder Fantasy was next home, and after sitting next to Criterion in the run, took the longer way home to finish three and a half lengths in arrears. If you swap the runs, you probably swap the result.
Teronado was the third horse, putting in his patented eye-catcher, simultaneously franking the Australian Guineas form from Flemington, where he, Thunder Fantasy and Criterion finished in the same order as at Rosehill.
Savvy Nature was good alongside Teronado and shouldn’t be forgotten. John O’Shea said this horse wouldn’t be racing over staying trips any more after his failure in the Victorian Derby, but he has obviously changed his mind.
Puccini was favourite in the Rosehill Guineas, but fired up after Michael Walker’s saddle slipped and was never in contention. Connections were unhappy with his ride and dumped him unceremoniously, despite the Kiwi jockey having delivered three wins on the trot for them, including the Group 1 New Zealand Derby. Tough crowd.
Gallatin and Singing Flame bring the Tulloch Stakes formline to the race, fighting out last week’s result on the heavy ground after previously meeting in a Kensington Benchmark 70. There was a nice gap to the others in the Tulloch, but that form doesn’t look top class at this stage.
Sometimes the path less travelled, is less travelled for a reason. The favourites with the Group 1 form to fight this one out.
Selections: 1.Thunder Fantasy 2.Criterion 3.Puccini 4.Teronado
kv joef
Guest
excellent overview Cam. boy has the wet thrown the cat among the pigeons tomorrow. on a good surface, no probs about stepping into Lankan Rupee with a 5w/6s record on Good and 3/9 on Dead or worse ... a question mark appears but he is a different horse de-nutted. Hope the ground doesn't matter as nothing better then seeing a 'blister' in full flight. Wet or dry ... agree with everybody it is going to be a great race. The derby also carries it's collection of "?"'s. shame about walker's sloppy handling of Puccini in the guineas, saddle re-alignment or not. deserved to be sacked. hope the horse hasn't taken any harm from it. wonderful to see criterion win at rosehill = a 100%'er who deserves success. Savvy Nature may finally run to his pedigree? A nice race. Wonderful day's racing.
andrew
Guest
my selections for Saturday. Sertorius, Missvonn in Syd. Karacatis and Kushadasi to give Jolly / Arnold a running double in Adelaide. And of course.........Rick Jack in Melbourne. If im going to tip when get round at evens, I might as well be on at $10. No firm view in the big G1's. But think 3 hopes only TJ ; Lankan Rupee, Gordon Lord, Rebel Dane. Doncaster a raffle, so might as well be a mug and stick with the masterful Guy Walter to have his 2 horses timed to peak to perfection. Cant wait to get up there and see the new stand.
Tim
Guest
Randwick doesn't dry. It will be lucky to be better than Slow 7.
Luke Andrews
Guest
I can't see the track improving much at all. I have just been looking up the other filly in the race, Sweet Idea. Another who hasn't won at Group 1, but is clearly top draw. I liked the way she stuck to her guns and really pulled ground off Steps in Time. If she can get cover just off them I can see her in the finish. She also has a rating a full 20 points higher than Villa Verde.
Haradasun
Guest
Agree with you bondy you are on a hiding to nothing if you have to get your tips in early especially for the carnival! Let's hope the rain holds out, though let's be fair without the sunshine and dry breeze the track is unlikely to improve a lot from where it is now.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I was on him that day, the Rupert Clarke, and he only just got there in the shadows of the post. Not exactly a dominant handicap win (like Lankan) suggesting he'd be a WFA powerhouse. But, as Luke alludes to below, he is a first-up flyer (3 from 3), and is obviously ready to strike listening to Boss. As for the tips this far out, sometimes I end up backing something else closer to race-time after a bit more time to think and assessing various factors!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great weather update Luke, thanks for that. The last I heard from Andrew Bensley, at about 9am this morning, was the track currently rated a slow 7. It really is an amazing race, for all the reasons you describe. So many varied formlines coming togther, with most horses at their peak. And with 11 Group 1 winners in the field, my value selection (Villa Verde) is one that hasn't won one! The race should set up beautifully for her, and the middle-wide barrier is perfect to give an James McDonald all sorts of options.
Luke Andrews
Guest
It is just starting to sprinkle here in the inner East. Nothing dramatic but there is rain about. Having said that, I managed to get some washing dry between yesterday and this morning. THe two days before it poured all day. The weather looks like it is stuck in a bleak pattern and that summer is gone for good. Anything above slow looks wishful thinking. Great preview, and wow the TJ is impressive this year. At least 10 genuine chances and a host of different form lines. I am going to have to hit the videos, and will be looking for value in this one. Really interested to see what price Gordon Lord Byron starts, Rebel Dane is a gun fresh, Lankan Rupee was dominant in Melbourne, how do the mares and Sydney handicappers measure up, and of course will Zoustar run and be at his best?
Bondy
Guest
Thats a very fair call with Rebel Dane Cam he has to step up no question perhaps his Vic Health Cup win "I think its called" and possibly getting so close to Pierro as a three yr old he often challenged for favouritism with Pierro over 6-7 furlongs, and slashing sectionals leads punters to that conclusion. I must mention I dont put tips up here I generally bet to what the markets doing late I've backed Lankan Rupee at all his starts this campaign remembering the slashing trial prior to his first up run/win but if he's to short currently $3.90 which is appealing for mine if Lankan moves into around 7-4 or $2.80 I'll be betting on GLB at $7.50 .I'm not a pre post punter except for feature doubles they generally end in tears for me.Lol I have a great respect for those who put tips up or out 30 -40 hours prior to a race.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Justin. If the track is somehow a dead 4 or better on the day, I'll probably request to have Spirit of Boom upgraded to second selection, but I couldn't entertain him on slow or worse. Although, if he's ever going to handle the wet, it's going to be in this form.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Bondy. I won't be surprised at all if the trifecta from Rosehill runs it again in the Derby - we've already seen it happen in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket this year. Froggy was adamant about sticking with Samaready, but there can be no doubt Lankan Rupee has gone past her now.
Cameron Rose
Expert
To be honest, I'm still waiting to see what all the fuss is about with Rebel Dane, but as Bondy says, Bossy doesn't get it wrong too often. I agree with the thinking that the Derby win flattered Criterion, even though he's a very good horse. I'm happy to stick with Thunder too. It's such a shame Polanski isn't here, he could have been anything. I'm sure when your old man talks about horse racing he speaks frankly.
Haradasun
Guest
Going to be a hot pace In the tj smith what a race! Rebel Dane at $13 is great value and that is where I'm leaning. I'm sticking with my mate thunder fantasy in the derby, my sense is that the guineas result flattered criterion somewhat, even though he was dominant. A drying track and 2400 will bring him back to the field. The form has been pretty sound in general with the staying races and the reality is thunder fantasy is going well and ran 3rd in the VRC derby only to Polanski and complacent. Also my old mans name is frank, so when he does the form is that franking the form?
Bondy
Guest
I'm just wondering will little Chad Schofield "keep" the ride or does Froggy "I've just checked the noms and Chad's missed out back to the Stable rider" Chad rode him a treat down the straight although smashing his rivals.This TJ in a speed sense almost looks tailored for GLB do dive late, I tend to agree with Boss Rebel Dane can really poor the ground turning in very impressive sectionals dynamic in fact and he Boss generally doesn't choose incorrectly that often. I also agree with Waller Zoustar is a good/dead to firm ground horse as witnessed up the straight for Cassidy's 100th Grp 1 win, I hope Buffering can run a gallant race too. Its awfully hard to go past Criterion he did SP at 15's last start though ? in a thumping victory, the Tulloch Stks wont hold up it was a shocking race I'd suggest that what run 1 2 3 in the Guineas will mirror for the Derby . Nice preview Cam. Oh, I live roughly an hour and half north of Randwick and on the Coast to its really threatening to rain but just cant that's the type of weather here. Good Punting.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I'm a long way from Randwick but we got heaps of rain on Sunday and not much since. Weather is ok today, so far no rain.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Absolutely! By the way, super preview!! And nice opening line in the Aeronautical spiel.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's an amazingly deep field - I know we have a lot of Group 1 sprints, but to have nine horses here that have won one this season shows it is a field of quality, and at or near their best form. When I was writing the preview, I kept thinking "I'll have to have this one in my top four" - but in the end there were about ten of them! I agree with you about Lankan though Justin, he's far and away a clear top selection. Hopefully he gets the chance to deliver his best and brings his Newmarket form with him.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm not sure Peeko, we might need one of our Sydney-based people to give us the good oil. Nothing from a dead 5 to a heavy track would surprise me at this stage, but there looks like a lot of rain is due to hit Sydney.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I with Peeeko - the TJ Smith is the race I'm looking forward to most on Saturday. As for who wins the race - well this is Lankan Rupee's race. He is on the up and looks like the best horse in the field (quite comfortably so in my opinion). This autumn has muddied the waters in Australian racing. It would be nice to see the horse widely regarded as the best in the race win with authority. The dangers are endless - I'd love to see Zoustar and Buffering at their best. Gordon Lord Byron demands massive respect. Could Villa Verde make the jump to the Group 1 WFA - she has been very good this preparation. Don't discount Snitzerland or Spirit Of Boom - Group 1 WFA winners over sprint trips in 2014. Shamexpress' best is definitely good enough as well. Other than Samaready, there's no sprinter who I'm disappointed not to see in the field.
peeeko
Roar Guru
cant wait for the TJ, Cam, what rating are you expecting for the track? Heavy?