With Good Friday football in 2015 looking more and more likely, the major question is which two teams will get the coveted fixture?
North Melbourne and Carlton have appeared the front runners, although according to chief Herald Sun football writer Mark Robinson, Essendon are also a strong chance.
The match is a near certainty to be played in Victoria to tie with the Royal Children Hospital appeal, with a number of financially stable as well as struggling clubs wanting the fixture.
There lies the question, does the AFL create a rivalry to support a financially weaker club or take in a ready made rivalry? Here is each club’s chances, based on the assumption that current marquee matches will be the same, e.g. ANZAC Day Collingwood versus Essendon.
The match is played at Etihad, seen as likely due to the proximity to the RCH appeal telecast.
North Melbourne
Creator of Friday Night Football, been the hardest campaigner for Good Friday football and in desperate need of a rivalry. Appear to have bounced back from financial ruin but this fixture would go a long way in stabilising the club.
Ideal rivals: Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne
Likely match-up: Carlton
Probability: 85 per cent
Carlton
Has three solid rivalries in Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon. A Carlton versus Richmond game will not happen as they are the traditional season opener, while Collingwood and Essendon are also unlikely as the match would likely be played at Etihad for proximity to the RCH Appeal.
They are on the other side of the hospital from North Melbourne, which gives a nice element. The Blues are not in my opinion as likely as North Melbourne, due to their other strong rivalries and comparative lack of public campaigning for the fixture.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 80 per cent
Essendon
Mark Robinson’s article really took me by surprise. This will mean that once every three years Essendon will play two blockbuster matches back to back (Good Friday and ANZAC Day). This would also give them a third marquee match after Dreamtime at the G.
Unless they play at the MCG I can’t see them playing Hawthorn or Carlton, which means North Melbourne become extremely likely.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne
Likely rival: North Melbourne
Probability: 40 per cent
Geelong/Hawthorn
Next to no chance due to the Easter Monday match-up, although the AFL would be extremely tempted to play the ready made Easter rivalry on Good Friday. It would certainly require the MCG.
Ideal rival: Each other
Likely match-up: Each other
Probability: 15 per cent
Western Bulldogs
The real underdogs, like North Melbourne, have no real marquee games or rivalries. Certainly a reasonable chance, but would need the support of a key back (probably North Melbourne/Carlton) to get the job done.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, St. Kilda
Likely match-up: North Melbourne/Carlton
Probability: 45 per cent
Collingwood
If the Good Friday match was to grow in popularity it would certainly be played at the MCG with Collingwood involved.
They are unlikely to get the match-up due to already being involved in marquee games and many rivalries. The only chance I can see is if they’re paired with a team struggling like the Western Bulldogs to generate some hype and support.
Ideal rival: Geelong, North Melbourne
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 15 per cent
Melbourne
Melbourne finds itself as the league’s oldest team yet does not have a rival. That is a decent argument in itself.
The problem is they are playing so poorly. With the club in a weak financial position, any rivalry would take years to develop. As mentioned regarding Collingwood, they could be paired with an already stable team to generate hype and excitement.
The problem with that is they already have Queen’s Birthday, and any deal like that would almost be a 100 per cent win for them and loss for everyone else.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 20 per cent
Richmond
Richmond is one team slipping under the radar who have a huge chance at this fixture. Despite having solid rivalries with Carlton and Essendon, they are a team who could comfortably draw a crowd to Etihad against a lower team without the need for the MCG.
Ideal rival: Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Melbourne
Likely match-up: Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne
Probability: 35 per cent
St. Kilda
Haven’t been mentioned in many team’s ideal rival for the simple reason that they aren’t strong enough to draw a ready made crowd and they have not publicly campaigned for the fixture (until recently).
They have modern finals rivalries with Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, which could draw a crowd to Etihad.
Ideal rival: Geelong, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
Likely match-up: Western Bulldogs
Probability: 20 per cent
Outside Victoria
Adelaide-Port Adelaide – 30 per cent
Fremantle-West Coast – 25 per cent
Brisbane-Gold Coast – 35 per cent
Sydney-GWS – 40 per cent
Brendon the 1st
Guest
I like the idea, problem is though that they both have small stadiums, surely the crowds would be bigger in other states.......that means SA and WA as well as VIC
Jones
Guest
I can't believe Essendon feel bullish enough to put their hands up for this game, As if they have not got enough marquee games. Not to mention their unglorified recent mess. I hope North, & Bullies get rewarded the game.
Anthony
Guest
Dalgety - you are so out of touch! The Giants' home ground can not be used at Easter because of the Royal Easter Show. This debate is surely a Melbourne one. North vs Carlton is ideal for a twilight game at Docklands. We had soccer & rugby in Melbourne last night & NRL on TV. Why should the AFL be the only sport not playing in Melbourne?
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Actually on reflection, a GWS vs Gold Coast game on a Good Friday makes complete sense. A national stage for the frontier teams surely offers too much for it to be otherwise. It'll be so much fresher than any old favoured/non-favoured Vic combination. Every other state could see the ongoing flourishing of their young talent, while the two newbies build and develop towards real meaningful blockbuster status.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
The Children's Hospital Appeal idea seem's anachronistic to a national competition. Surely if charity is going to be involved it needs to be a national one. It is more likely the Good Friday game would be geared for television first (I.e. the AFL wants trump other codes). So attendances at the game are secondary (just needs to have some decent atmosphere). I reckon a night game is also a certainty, allowing everyone so inclined, to go to religious services etc and then settle back for the beginning of the Easter celebrations after the solemnity of the day has been given due attention. (One game is probably a best fit, given 4 or 5 days of footy are likely...and to give it the greatest oomph). North and the Bulldogs are probably due some concession...barring the big bucks they've already been subsidised. But it might be best they continue to earn their stripes the Darwinian way (perhaps other greener pastures await). So then, who then?... GWS are my nomination as the best long term option.... perhaps with Essendon (or another of the crusty Vic school tie clubs) initially to get some interest, but maybe against the Premier (or a GF replay when they are Premiers) as years go by. The game should forever be played at the orange and greys (gag) home ground. This would usher the most strategic of all the AFL's babies into a new stratosphere of hype. A new frontier indeed.
Gobsmacked
Guest
joe b if other States have a Childrens Hospital Appeal on Good Friday then your argument is warranted however I am not aware of this happening anywhere other than Victoria.
David Baron
Guest
For the life of me why would essendon be even considered! They play anzac day & the dream time game! Blues & Kangas have invested alot of time an effort to play good friday! They have my vote!
Griffo
Guest
If these are meant to be in ratio to each other, for example a team with 80 twice as likely as a team with 40, then all you have to do is divide the figure next to each team by 3.1. That would give North a 27.42% chance :)
Cat
Roar Guru
sorry joe b didn't know you stood to represent the entirety outside of Melbourne, just because you don't know about something doesn't make it any less true. If you have been following the progress of North Melbourne's campaign to play on Good Friday for years now you would know the whole pitched involved both teams heading to RCH after the game to present the charity with a $100,000 check (and probably bring a whole hell of a lot of smiles and good memories to the children they'd see whilst there). I'm all for helping every charity if people come up with good ways to do it, why crap on the this one just because the people who came up with the idea chose to help a particular hospital? Why not come up with an original idea instead hijacking this one? But hey I am sure whatever evil conspiracy theory you have concocted is much more accurate.
joe b
Guest
I didn't know there was one for the Melbourne hospital (there goes your claim on nationally recognized). Does this mean that children outside Melbourne don't matter, that they aren't worthy of the AFL’s consideration? But clearly you believe that the driving force behind the decision to break the AFL’s tradition of no games on Good Friday is so it can raise funds for Melbourne's children's hospital...astounding.
Cat
Roar Guru
A good Friday game if marketed properly will have plenty of neutral followers show up, you'll get people coming just for the Childrens Hospital aspect. If small teams are never allowed a chance to build anything they will forever be small teams.
Cat
Roar Guru
Do any of these other hospitals have nationally recognized good friday appeal charities?
Cat
Roar Guru
Does nothing to help with equalisation and this comp needs serious work on it and fast.
Andrew
Guest
I agree you won't be able to ensure a great game, but like the idea of setting the game as the gf replay, no Victorian monopoly, will have two teams with at least a good chance of being in form/ premiership contenders
Jsteel
Roar Pro
Was just basically what I thought there chances are, they will not add up
joe b
Guest
Why does it have to be played in Melbourne? There are children in other states, and other children’s hospitals…don’t these children deserve similar consideration? The AFL is introducing Good Friday football to compete against the other codes, don’t delude yourself otherwise, and the only way they can soothe the backflip on Good Friday being sacrosanct is to USE the children’s hospital fund raiser. It is a tad ironic given the AFL’s affiliation with gambling…which destroys families and goes against religious principles. I am all for Good Friday footy, I just loathe the hypocrisy of the AFL. And why restrict it to one game? You can have thurs night game, then 2 games each on fri, sat, sun, and monday. A second Friday game could be played in another state to support another equally deserving children’s hospital.
Bosk
Guest
I'll happily support any club but Essendon playing on Good Friday. If the AFL chooses to reward Tullamarine with another blockbuster so soon after the club dragged the entire sport's name through the mud then the competition will have officially become a farce.
joe b
Guest
Why does it have to be played in Melbourne? There are children in other states, and other children's hospitals...don't these children deserve similar consideration? The AFL is introducing Good Friday football to compete against the other codes, don't delude yourself otherwise, and the only way they can soothe the backflip on Good Friday being sacrosanct is to USE the children's hospital fund raiser. It is a tad ironic given the AFL's affiliation with gambling...which destroys families and goes against religious principles.
Franko
Guest
The Vic govt could probably get a good cash injection by playing say North vs Adelaide Good Friday Night. Plenty of Crows supporters would drive over to make a holiday of it if it were annual.
Fred
Guest
I dont believe the game should be given to clubs with low supporter followings. This event needs to be played to a full house not a half empty one. If North or Bulldogs get the games it will be a fizzer- they dont have the support or interest of general footy supporters, geez they are mid ladder teams at best and the chances of either being a finals contender is along way off. The prospect of the membership bases growing is also very low so a blockbuster game that people will want to watch live or on foxtel has to go to teams with established credentials, not just the wanna bes.