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With Good Friday football in 2015 looking more and more likely, the major question is which two teams will get the coveted fixture?
North Melbourne and Carlton have appeared the front runners, although according to chief Herald Sun football writer Mark Robinson, Essendon are also a strong chance.
The match is a near certainty to be played in Victoria to tie with the Royal Children Hospital appeal, with a number of financially stable as well as struggling clubs wanting the fixture.
There lies the question, does the AFL create a rivalry to support a financially weaker club or take in a ready made rivalry? Here is each club’s chances, based on the assumption that current marquee matches will be the same, e.g. ANZAC Day Collingwood versus Essendon.
The match is played at Etihad, seen as likely due to the proximity to the RCH appeal telecast.
North Melbourne
Creator of Friday Night Football, been the hardest campaigner for Good Friday football and in desperate need of a rivalry. Appear to have bounced back from financial ruin but this fixture would go a long way in stabilising the club.
Ideal rivals: Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne
Likely match-up: Carlton
Probability: 85 per cent
Carlton
Has three solid rivalries in Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon. A Carlton versus Richmond game will not happen as they are the traditional season opener, while Collingwood and Essendon are also unlikely as the match would likely be played at Etihad for proximity to the RCH Appeal.
They are on the other side of the hospital from North Melbourne, which gives a nice element. The Blues are not in my opinion as likely as North Melbourne, due to their other strong rivalries and comparative lack of public campaigning for the fixture.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 80 per cent
Essendon
Mark Robinson’s article really took me by surprise. This will mean that once every three years Essendon will play two blockbuster matches back to back (Good Friday and ANZAC Day). This would also give them a third marquee match after Dreamtime at the G.
Unless they play at the MCG I can’t see them playing Hawthorn or Carlton, which means North Melbourne become extremely likely.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne
Likely rival: North Melbourne
Probability: 40 per cent
Geelong/Hawthorn
Next to no chance due to the Easter Monday match-up, although the AFL would be extremely tempted to play the ready made Easter rivalry on Good Friday. It would certainly require the MCG.
Ideal rival: Each other
Likely match-up: Each other
Probability: 15 per cent
Western Bulldogs
The real underdogs, like North Melbourne, have no real marquee games or rivalries. Certainly a reasonable chance, but would need the support of a key back (probably North Melbourne/Carlton) to get the job done.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, St. Kilda
Likely match-up: North Melbourne/Carlton
Probability: 45 per cent
Collingwood
If the Good Friday match was to grow in popularity it would certainly be played at the MCG with Collingwood involved.
They are unlikely to get the match-up due to already being involved in marquee games and many rivalries. The only chance I can see is if they’re paired with a team struggling like the Western Bulldogs to generate some hype and support.
Ideal rival: Geelong, North Melbourne
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 15 per cent
Melbourne
Melbourne finds itself as the league’s oldest team yet does not have a rival. That is a decent argument in itself.
The problem is they are playing so poorly. With the club in a weak financial position, any rivalry would take years to develop. As mentioned regarding Collingwood, they could be paired with an already stable team to generate hype and excitement.
The problem with that is they already have Queen’s Birthday, and any deal like that would almost be a 100 per cent win for them and loss for everyone else.
Ideal rival: North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn
Likely match-up: North Melbourne
Probability: 20 per cent
Richmond
Richmond is one team slipping under the radar who have a huge chance at this fixture. Despite having solid rivalries with Carlton and Essendon, they are a team who could comfortably draw a crowd to Etihad against a lower team without the need for the MCG.
Ideal rival: Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Melbourne
Likely match-up: Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne
Probability: 35 per cent
St. Kilda
Haven’t been mentioned in many team’s ideal rival for the simple reason that they aren’t strong enough to draw a ready made crowd and they have not publicly campaigned for the fixture (until recently).
They have modern finals rivalries with Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, which could draw a crowd to Etihad.
Ideal rival: Geelong, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
Likely match-up: Western Bulldogs
Probability: 20 per cent
Outside Victoria
Adelaide-Port Adelaide – 30 per cent
Fremantle-West Coast – 25 per cent
Brisbane-Gold Coast – 35 per cent
Sydney-GWS – 40 per cent
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