I’ve got Melbourne Storm finishing outside of the top four now. I’m not going to suggest they won’t make the finals, but I’m convinced they’re not going to win the premiership.
Their 24-22 loss to Canberra yesterday did it for me. There was controversy about a try that wasn’t awarded to Storm winger Sisa Waqa, which surely would have wrapped up a win for them had it been given, but it seems every team is getting bad calls this season.
It wasn’t long ago that the Storm wouldn’t have to worry about calls like that affecting their results. They were good enough to almost always cover for things they couldn’t control going against them.
But no longer.
The Storm have, for a long time, been a team that started the season strongly, competed strongly throughout it – except, perhaps, for a few weeks during the representative season, when their stocks were stretched – and went right on with the job deep into the finals.
But last season they didn’t go on with it, going straight out of the finals with back-to-back losses to South Sydney and Newcastle, and maybe that was more of a sign of things to come than was suggested.
Or maybe they simply didn’t have a good finals series and what is happening to them this season comes down to key factors that have emerged since, notably the speeding up of the game that has prevented them from dominating in the ruck like they used to, and the departure of Gareth Widdop.
It’s not wrist-slashing time. When you have a look at the competition table you’ll see the Storm in eighth place, with a win-loss record of four-three and only two points from the competition lead.
But you don’t have to go much deeper than that to see the big problem that has emerged for them. Their once excellent defence is now leaking way too many points.
The Storm have scored 157 points in their seven games at an average of 22.4 per game, which is the third-highest in the competition. That doesn’t compare badly with their regular-season average of 24.12 in 2012, when they went on to win the premiership, and their 24.54 last season.
But they have conceded 175 points at an average of 25, which is the second-worst in the competition. The hapless Warriors are only fractionally worse. In 2012, the Storm conceded at an average of 15.04 and last season it was 15.54.
When your defence is great, you are able to attack without feeling the pressure of having to force things. And then there is the reverse.
This just puts enormous pressure on the Storm’s “big three” – fullback Billy Slater, halfback Cooper Cronk and hooker Cameron Smith – to come up with even more big plays.
Slater, Cronk and Smith each did very well against the Raiders yesterday, but in the end it still wasn’t enough.
The increased ruck speed has meant the Storm haven’t been able to control the pace of the game, which was one of their greatest – if not their greatest – strengths. They may be able to adapt better as the season wears on, but they’re not showing any signs of that yet.
And while the presence of Slater, Cronk and Smith meant five-eighth Widdop couldn’t be the dominant player at the Storm that he is now at St George Illawarra, he was still very important.
We’re now finding out just how important he was.
It’s been a weird season so far for the Storm. They won their first three games, but could have easily lost the first two of those. The first, against Manly, they were behind 20-4 at halftime.
The second, against Penrith, was another close one. The Panthers had a chance to win the game at full-time with a penalty shot that was unsuccessful.
The Storm beat Newcastle in Round 3 in Melbourne and were hammered 40-12 by the Bulldogs the next week.
In another close match, the Storm were then the victims of a shocking strip call that led to a match-winning penalty goal for Gold Coast.
Next came the great escape to beat St George Illawarra, when replays showed the referee should have blown full-time rather than allow the last play. Then Canberra got them with a late try.
The problem with the poor defence and the weekly struggle to win that the Storm is facing at the moment is that they lose some of that aura about them. Teams will always respect them, but they won’t fear them as in years past.
And that will just make it harder again for them to win.
I notice the bookmakers have the Storm as fourth or fifth favourites to win the premiership now. They are still keeping them safe, at single-figure odds of about $9, which is what you would expect given the Storm’s results in recent years.
They are being rated on reputation more than anything.
If all of the teams were being rated purely on this season’s form, with no account for recent history, they would obviously be at longer odds.
There may still be hints of greatness, but this season is going to be a lot more difficult for the Storm than most people imagined.
Tiger rucko
Guest
Do you think there is a correlation between the (hopefully not premature) decline of the storm and the speeding up of the play the ball to remove the wrestle. Say what you like, the storm were the masters of this
Les of Queensland
Guest
1 received from ROAR 28 references and only yours relates to keeping the game a game. Everyone seems to rubbish the players, but the NRL and The Referees put them in this position, that is to cheat. Listen to the crowd booing, something is desperately wrong. We want to see the best team win,whom ever it is and a game that is enjoyed. It is possible that money is behind this and when you see the coaches, players. Fans and Commentators shaking their heads and making comments after the game. By the way I follow the Rooster since the 1960's and still just want to see a good game.
Dav
Guest
NSW people just don't get it Les, they are too stupid to see the carrot dangled in front of them, bloody donkeys, you talk of match fixing, and the most worst referring seen in the history of the game and they change the subject to the commentators? I reckon they are going for Origin, watch for the rigged call to decide Origin this year, it is funny how they instinctively trust the N(SW)RL and QLDers don't.
Gonads At Large
Guest
Very true, but Melbourne's proven cheating was way beyond what is suspected against other clubs. Players signing two contracts, etc, was in the league of the Fine Cotton/Bold Personality ring-in scandal in horse racing. Straight out cheating. It was also Melbourne that brought in the horrible wrestling holds. I don't want Melbourne to be out of the comp, but they shouldn't cheat. Melbourne's other problem is that it is a creation of John Ribot - the Super League man who killed the beloved North Sydney Bears.
Brucey
Guest
Well said Pete. As a Victorian born and bred I don't give a shit about origin. I wish our qld players would stand down and protect the club. They've done enough for qld. Mal doesn't need a ninth title. It's getting boring.
Brucey
Guest
You've never liked the Storm, even when you wrote for fairfax. You must've hated 2012. I remember after Storm's 5 game losing streak you were taking delight in writing them off in 2012. So I take your criticism with a grain of salt. Yes they've come back a bit. But Bellamy will focus more and more on defence as their attack is good. The McKinnon incident has affected them. But they will adjust.
Doug Graves
Guest
They really are becoming the Tiger Sharks!
Muzz
Guest
You know he's "rumoured" to be talking to the Sharks.Just saying.
The eye
Guest
Now theres the odd couple,Benji and Belly..love to see that happen !
Doug Graves
Guest
"There may still be hints of greatness, but this season is going to be a lot more difficult for the Storm than most people imagined." Good article and well summed up, I think Storm are still good enough to finish top 6 and get a home final but that's about it. Maybe they can look at bringing Benji Marshall off the bench....
Pete
Guest
Yeah true, I can't say much to that, but if every club's books were picked over with a fine tooth comb, Melb wouldn't be the only ones during that era that was doing it. They just got caught, and were handed a pretty severe punishment. Infact weren't 7 clubs found guilty last few years for cap breaches? And roosters had growth hormones in their samples? Melbourne is the only team outside NSW/Qld and there is so much hatred aimed at them, calls to rid the comp of them.
Jackson Henry
Guest
I'll take Gould over Hadley 100 times out of 100. The disrespect for Australian RL fans that Nein shows by putting this absolute oxygen thief in the commentary box is breath-taking.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Sorry but stripping penalties are a lottery. Bring back ball security. Make the players responsible for keeping the ball. After all, they were responsible for holding on to it themselves for nearly 100 years.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
In favour of daylight games, 50,000 today at the Tigers Parra game. But that won't concern the NRL nor Channel 9.
Gonads At Large
Guest
I sympathise, but the Storm wrecked the competition for everyone else over a number of years with its salary cap cheating. Storm treated everyone else with contempt.
Pete
Guest
It's all good to say don't be bitter, but seriously, would like your club raided during the season, your best players taken, bashed, bruised, worn down and pushed to the limits? All for a reason you don't care for, your club and supporters don't care about? There is absolutely no gain as a Melbourne supporter to watch our players head to origin. Infanct, it's a loss.
Squirrel
Guest
Tell that to the players to stop sooking. I don't care to be honest I go for the roosters,go get a wrestling coach to try and show how to injure players. Bellamy has been a blight on the game at win at all costs
Steve from down south
Guest
Your one hundred percent right they have been bending the rules, but they never broke any rules, all their tackles were legal and everybody copied them, the storm just perfected them and the others followed until the NRL banned them, so stop sooking and get over it, every club has wrestling coaches, the storms were just better than the rest of them and if you think that your team doesn't employ wrestling coaches and tactics you my friend are just straight out delusional.....
Gonads At Large
Guest
Structured football Storm style might be passé. Attacking ad lib football might be the way. Throw the ball around and see what happens.
Gonads At Large
Guest
All that bitterness can't be good for you, Pete. You'll explode.