Super Rugby Expert tips - Round 12

Just when we thought we were doing OK, we get a round where 4/7 turns out to be the score of the week. The Sharks are just mocking us now, rewarding us handsomely the previous round then taking it all away.

They won’t be getting my Powerplay this week!

Big ups to Tristo and Elisha for taking the Cheetahs last week. I thought they were both mad when their tips came in. The patriotic types in the group – Scott and Paddy, taking all four Australian sides – were cruelly punished. No non-existent bonus points for you!

Elisha and Tristan will lead off this week, but not before our special guest!

Many of you will know Scotty ‘Sumo’ Stevenson as one of the voices of SKY Sport’s rugby coverage in New Zealand, as well as the host of the #SKYRUGBY – ENGAGE show on Thursday nights. Sumo is also the editor of the monthly SKY Sport – The Magazine. Sumo has always been up for social media banter, and I was really happy when he accepted the invitation to teach us how to tip…

Scotty ‘Sumo’ Stevenson
Tips: Blues, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs (P/P), Hurricanes, Highlanders, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: I’m taking the Blues because Will Genia is half the man he used to be, which now makes him a quarter of the size of the rest of us. The Blues may have lost Braid and the Reds may have gained Gill, but I raise you a Kaino and close the deal.

The Sharks simply can’t play as badly as they did against the Highlanders, and even though the Rebels will run it from everywhere, I expect the home side to leak a bunch of points here.

The Crusaders have lost three times in eighteen matches at AMI Stadium, and never to an Australian or South African team. The Brumbies have never played the Crusaders here. Read is a huge loss but McCaw and Taufua can cover. In a week for firsts the Brumbies will still come second.

The Chiefs can’t get worse. The Lions are worse. If there was a game to equivocate over it would be the ‘Tahs v the ‘Canes. The problem here is that the ‘Canes should win this, but it’s never a done deal at Allianz. That said, they’re running a sensational offence and shade the ‘Tahs in the loose. Potgeiter versus Levave is worth the ticket price.

Which brings us to the small matter of the South African matches. Lima Sopoaga needs to channel coach Tony Brown’s 1999 semi-final performance at Newlands and just take it to the line on every play. We at SKY Sport New Zealand compared the two players. Lima’s been watching his coach’s tape. Highlanders win.

And finally, the Bulls, so average on tour, will get it together at Loftus. They are one loss away from kissing their playoff hopes goodbye. I don’t think they’re ready for that sort of farewell.

Elisha Pearce
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Crusaders, Chiefs (P/P), Waratahs, Stormers, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: Home, home, home, home, home, home, and home. From now on, I’m going with the home team unless I’m strongly convinced otherwise – this home bias is too long-lasting to ignore.

I’m giving a little love in the Reds direction, but not enough to pick them. Blues are on their patented upswing. Crusaders hold the home court after a week off. Their pack is a monster and will do the job. Highlanders getting a little love against the ‘Tahs too, but not enough away.

The Chiefs won’t give up points at home to the Lions so get my powerplay.

South African derbies are where I feel least confident of blindly picking home teams. But the Stormers and Bulls seem natural picks here. Bulls are better than the Cheetahs. Two in a row in South Africa would put the Highlanders further into the finals mix but I don’t think they’re consistent enough.

Tristan Rayner
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Crusaders (P/P), Chiefs, Hurricanes, Stormers, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: A spring in the step from leading last week’s tricky round, with the possibility of taking Brett down by the end of season still all too real.

I don’t see my tips lining up with everyone this week. I’ve taken a preference for home teams, although not exclusively – with the Hurricanes over the Waratahs my away win.

I have given a nod to the Rebels over the recently troubled Sharks. I fancy the Crusaders are making a strong return to their best and at home I’ll take them as the powerplay given the dubious injury-hit Chiefs, and a couple of the other games not being confident picks.

We have a cracker for this week’s shout-out over on Techly, and this is real: A plane has been in space for 500 days, and no one knows why. Hope you enjoy!

Brett McKay
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Brumbies, Chiefs (P/P), Waratahs, Highlanders, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: So much for last week being an easy round. Changes for the Reds this week, but they look superficial and Blues remain dangerous at home. I’ve just got a gut feeling about the Rebels, and I have to admit, I thought I’d be on my own taking them.

That I’m not now worries the hell out of me. The Crusaders have the cavalry coming back to face the Brumbies, but 14-year-old losing streaks are made to be broken. Chiefs at home, against the Lions? Please…

The Waratah pick is tactical, if I’m honest. I actually like the Hurricanes, but not as much as I like the Brumbies and Highlanders, and three away picks would be pushing it. Bulls at Loftus should be too good for the Cheetahs, but if ‘Spiders’ le Roux has a night out, anything could happen.

Chiefs for the Powerplay. Too obvious.

Spiro Zavos
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Crusaders, Chiefs (P/P), Hurricanes, Highlanders, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: I started last weekend with a couple of wins but it went downhill with the Highlanders, Force, Brumbies, and Cheetahs all winning. In retrospect, I should have stayed with home sides.

In fact, if I’d have taken the home side throughout the season, I’d be leading the competition, I reckon. [Ed’s note: comfortably.]

My picks this week are mostly home sides: Blues to beat the Reds; Rebels to beat the Sharks (gulp!); Crusaders to beat the Brumbies; Chiefs to beat the Lions.

Hurricanes to beat the Waratahs (oh no, I’ve broken my home side theory). Highlanders to beat the Stormers (I’ve done it again). Bulls to beat the Cheetahs.

My Powerplay is the Chiefs to beat the Lions.

Scott Allen
Tips: Blues, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs (P/P), Hurricanes, Highlanders, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: The only matches I’m confident with this week are the Chiefs over the Lions and the Sharks over the Rebels. I think both of these teams will bounce back strongly after being well beaten last week. I’ll use my powerplay with the Chiefs, too.

Selections that could go either way where I’ve based my tip on home advantage are Bulls over Cheetahs, Crusaders over Brumbies and Blues over Reds. I won’t be surprised if I get 0/3 for those tips.

Another toss of the coin but this time I’ll go for the away team, the Hurricanes to beat the Waratahs as the Hurricanes are in good form while the Waratahs are inconsistent. A good result for the Highlanders last week and another poor result from the Stormers so I’ll tip Highlanders in that one.

Biltongbek
Tips: Blues, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs (P/P), Waratahs, Stormers, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: I am pretty much going for the home teams, putting my hope on the Sharks to be the only away winner this week. My powerplay is on the Chiefs – if there is a sure thing in rugby, it must be the defending Champions playing the Lions at home.

The Crusaders versus Brumbies and Waratahs versus Hurricanes will be the toughest matches this weekend; I am going for home advantage, as form in this competition doesn’t count for much from one week to the next.

Paddy Effeney
Tips: Blues, Sharks, Brumbies, Chiefs (P/P), Waratahs, Highlanders, and Bulls.

Explain yourself: Let’s face it, I’m a disaster.

My strategy last week was to pick the winners, but that clearly backfired, so I find myself slipping further from the lead I once held.

Should I just concede defeat? Never! Back yourself! Look at the Roar tipping grid, and alternating picks between the home and away sides is the only solution. That leaves me with the Bulls, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies, Chiefs, Sharks, and Blues.

[Ed’s note: you’re looking at the round upside down, by the way…] [Paddy’s note: If you’re looking at it from the Roar tipping page, Brett…]

Powerplay goes on the Chiefs.

The summary