With the Brumbies, Waratahs and Force all in the Super Rugby finals mix, many a rugby pundit has lauded the growing depth in Australian rugby.
But with the June Tests looming, is it a sign of strength that we’re still arguing over who will play where in our national first XV? Are our disagreements the result of an abundance of world-class players, or a lack there of?
There is no doubt Australia’s depth has improved. But it has not, as yet, resulted in more world-class players, and most importantly, world-class combinations.
Many Super Rugby players have improved from average to good at that level. This is of course a good thing, but doesn’t yet equate to confidence we are going to knock off the All Blacks this year.
The biggest concern for our friends across the ditch is seemingly third string hooker. They talk about ‘locking stocks;, as opposed to wondering who is going to play lock.
And there is some worry about what they’ll do when Conrad Smith retires or gets injured or if Kieran Read doesn’t recover from his head knocks.
Unfortunately for Wallaby supporters, the certainty of All Black selections is less about a lack of good players challenging for spots than it is about their obvious world class line-up.
And those incumbents that aren’t in form have proven they can be relied upon to step up in black – although this year even the perennial Super Rugby underachievers Ma’a Nonu and Israel Dagg are playing well.
And more important than the performance of individual players is their certainty of combinations and mix.
Australia has a problem of both talent and combinations. At lock, there are no standout world-class players, unless you assume James Horwill will return to his best, or the likes of Kane Douglas, Rob Simmons, Will Skelton or Luke Jones will make a step up when the time comes.
I think the Wallaby selectors should gamble on both Jones and Skelton, be prepared to leave out Horwill and consider picking Scott Fardy at Lock.
The backrow is similarly uncertain. The positions of blindside and number 8 are far from settled. Have Ben McCalman and Scott Higginbotham shown enough to be considered world class?
Is Cliffy Palu going to get yet another chance? What about a blotter like Angus Cottrell? For me, McCalman and Higginbotham should get their chance and Fardy should play lock.
Midfield is perhaps the most perplexing. There is no doubt in my mind that Adam Ashley-Cooper is a world class outside centre, but I think he’s yet to play in a world class centre combination.
A odern world-class midfield offers some combination of kicking, passing, bending the line with size and power, offloading, breaking tackles, and defending strongly.
I would argue that Adam Ashley-Cooper does the last two really well, but leaves much of the rest for his inside man.
His lack of size is perhaps the only reason why Tevita Kurindrani was getting picked ahead of him last year. The selectors wanted to be able to pick the likes of Matt Toomua, a skilful but smaller player for inside centre.
Is Kurindrani a better option than Adam Ashley-Cooper if we could find the right combination to pick the latter at 13?
If Scott McCabe could somehow improve his kicking and passing game, I personally think it would be a no brainer to field a 10-12-13 combination of Toomua, McCabe and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Remember, more important than complete world-class players is a combination that offers a world class skill set in totality. But if McCabe can’t broaden his game then what? There are so many potential options here, all with pros and cons.
Tighthead prop is perhaps our biggest flaw. Despite what I’ve said about the rest, the side that eventually takes the field will have solid players in those positions. The same can’t be said for tighthead.
Who is our best player and will they do at least well enough so that our scrum doesn’t cost us matches? I really have no idea.
In my opinion, the rest is pretty settled, and I would prefer to keep the conversation on the areas above. But in the interests of transparency, here goes:
Back three: definitely Israel Folau and Nick Cummins plus one more, but I’m not worried about who.
Openside: Mike Hooper
Halfback: Will Genia. Sorry, he’s still the best we’ve got by some margin. It’s not a conversation.
Loosehead: Scott Sio has improved this year, enough to be a certainty.
Hooker: Stephen Moore
Fly-half: This is really part of the midfield conversation. But it’s either Quade Cooper or Toomua.
So it looks like lock, backrow (other than Hooper), midfield and tighthead are up for debate. How will the Wallabies win back the Bledisloe?
Firstxv
Guest
agree biltong...I don't see it, and of last years crop...key players are languishing...Genia, Cooper, Horwill, even Folaus gone quiet of late...
jutsie
Guest
skelton and jones have shown signs in previous season but this is the first time they have really put their hand up and put in consistent performances every week. same with cotterrell and to a lesser extent carter. Latu at the tahs has shown a bit of promise but not enough to put his hand up for test selection. a number of rebels/force props have also put their hands up but this more to do with the lack of class in our front row.
I am trying to rack my brain in who has been newcomers this season compared to last season and I am struggling to find any. Who are the Aussie players that has put up their hands this season for the first time?
Harry Jones
Expert
I mean, in the pack. OZ has a lot more natural talent in the backline.
Harry Jones
Expert
Fardy has to own the 6 jersey, no? He was one of OZ's best players in a tough year. It would be crazy to reward him by dropping him or playing him at lock. Moore, Fardy, and Hooper are the ones to write down immediately.
44bottles
Guest
You can't call someone world class if they haven't even played for the national team.
firstxv
Guest
Cummins isn't overly flashy at test level and gets there purely on this years antics, impressive though they are. Moore and Hooper for certain, Genias been flat for some time. Coopers getting read too easily. A lot will be placed on Folau, Australia's only player capable of making world xv quality this year, Moore and Hooper on good days. Just think they're going to struggle again this year. There's more depth for sure but its filling up the mid to lower levels rather than rising at the top.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Weakest depth in history. World Class players include Genia, Moore, Hooper Folau and Skelton.
dru
Guest
It disappoints me greatly to agree, but I think I do. And you have to ask, if Quade isn't going to be beaten right now, what is the situation when he will? Still I hope Ewan sticks with the Red 9-10. And then Toomua is a given at 12. Horwill is gone for me. Moore to captain.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
I agree about TKB. Hes a good defender, good over the ball, a good passer and offloader.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
I like TKB and Perenara. Hall looks good for Auckland and Pulu looks like a good prospect. No worries imo. Centre isnt a concern at all. Crotty, Nonu, Smith, Fekitoa and SBW, that is incredible talent at centre. B.Smith is a utility and F.Saili and P.Ahki look like fantastic players of the future. Also who knows when the next Fekitoa will pop up. The centres in NZ are not a weakness and NZ is the strongest in the world there in first choice and depth. As for hooker, sure we dont have a Biz, Hartley or Strauss but Coles is OK and Mealamu still goes alright. Coltman looks very intersting to me, I suspect, if given some time, Liam will be a very good international hooker. Imo we tend to look at players like C.Smith retiring and say "wheres the next centre at his level" but thats quite ridiculous because nobody on this planet is at Conrads level so why would a young prospect look just as good. NZ has no real concerns imo.
thoughts
Guest
Kepu for me at tight head hands down. Also as for nz 9's, Kerr-barlow is not getting enough credit in my opinion.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Forgive me but Im going to use NZ as an example. The positions in doubt for NZ have been either "problem" positions in 2013 (prop, hooker) or positions where players are returning from injury or an overseas stint such as right wing and blindside flank. The reasons for Australua are no different but there are far more question marks, 11 of the 15 imo. I would argue that only 4 positions are a sure thing. Moore at hooker, Fardy at blindside, Cummins at left wing and Folau at FB. AAC and Toomua will be in the starting 15 but where is still an issue. In no way does it make Australia stronger and that is why I would go for more consistent players to fill spots and get a team together that will stay together. I would ditch inconsistent players in key positions, players like Cooper, TPN, White would go and be replaced by players with less "x factor" but better consistency and a lower error rate.
Rollaway7
Guest
Hi Luke, I agree on the forwards, Jones should force his way in but at the cost of who? The front row is not set and has no clear combination. As a 9 in my playing days I can tell you the most important combination in the back line is 9-10. If you select Genia you have to select Cooper, which is where my problem comes in, a year out from RWC the focus needs to change now, or stay the same all chips down. For RWC I would go White and Toomua as a safer option, Australia has plenty of exciting option and Toomua can play both an open game and a conservative game. With the current state of the reds and no change in sight you might be stuck with under performing out of confidence 9-10 come RWC. Ewen will have to make a choice before next month and stick to it win or lose, personally I would not gamble if I was in his spot.
richard
Guest
I would add halfback as the other position of concern.There is Aaron Smith,and then daylight.Andy Ellis is probably the best of a mediocre bunch trailing behind.
Tony H
Guest
Pretty good article Luke. I think the lack of certainty for WB selection is an obvious weakness as the debate isn't over who has to miss out because the incumbants dominate that position but given the lack of quality of the stocks who do you put in. I think for the majority of us Kiwis the position we are only truely concerned about is Hooker where outside of Melamu we are lacking depth expecially given his proneness to injuries these days. Coles is progressing but in my opinion he is much like your WB's he is in there much more as a best of the rest. I don't believe Centre is that much of an issue for us as although Conrad will be hard to replace when he does retire we have plenty of Centre stocks coming through and then next year we also have SBW's returning. I think Conrad not playing in the English series will be a positive in building that experience (as long as they don't but Ben S in there as that clearly did not work). I would bracket Moore & Folua as the only current Aussie players that would geniunely get picked for the AB's. Skellton could be an awesome player in the future I suspect and I see him as showing real potential. Your new National comp will start to have a positive impact on your stocks within 5 years so I hope you guys perserver with it as the NPC and Currie Cup can not be underestimated on the positive impact it has on our players and SA players development.
Lukas
Roar Pro
Yep, that's pretty much the thrust of my article. Well said. Although I had to laugh when the sub-editors of The Roar accidentally implied I thought the uncertainty was a positive when they gave my article a headline! Should be fixed now though
Common Sense
Guest
In my opinion Australia's lack of test certainties is a bad thing. The only reason its uncertain is because your once in a generation players are either injured, overseas or out of form. The fact that we are even considering other players in those positions should be sounding alarm bells throughout Australian rugby. Cooper, Genia, Horwill, Ione, Pocock, Giteau, Beale, O'Connor should all be genuine first choice starters or match day 23 - bar none, but they aren't, for their own different reasons. In regards to the current Red's three, the only reason other people are being considered is not because the replacements are better players, but rather, the current players are so out of form that it would be mistake not to pick the new players. I'm still of the opinion that Australia doesn't have depth, just a lot of numbers, and if the Wallabies want any chance in the big competitions coming up then they need their best players firing on all cylinders.