Spain’s achievements in winning back to back European Championships with a World Cup sandwiched in between beggars belief in the modern era.
Such are the margins these days that sustained periods of dominance are few and far between, as shown in the constant failure by the best teams in Europe to retain the Champions League.
At International level it is even harder, given that these major tournaments only come around once every two years for those in Europe and South America.
Spain have won titles in ’08, ’10 and ’12 surpassing France’s back-to-back victories in ’98 and ’00 to become the outstanding team in the World in recent history.
The question is, could they do the unthinkable and win a second World Cup?
The bookies are inclined to think not given that they only have the reigning champions as fourth favourites. The two South American powerhouses of Brazil and Argentina and the always dangerous Germany are ahead of them in the odds.
There are of course several reasons to suggest that Spain, as fine a team as they are, will not win a fourth-straight tournament.
The fact that the tournament is being held in South America is seen as a huge factor for the European teams. The fact that some bookies are offering better prices on Italy than on Colombia would bear this out.
Conditions are expected to be tough in many venues and with a couple of Spain’s key players starting to slowly get on in years, it may be said that Spain’s high-tempo possession game will difficult to maintain.
The other considerations are that nearly every football team completes a cycle, and that Spain’s current cycle has already lasted far longer than most.
Certainly, stalwarts such as Xavi Hernandez, Xabi Alonso, David Villa and even Andres Iniesta have seen better days.
But there are of course many plus factors for the Spanish also.
Spain have huge midfield talent to choose from with the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Sergio Busquets, Thiago Alcantra, Javi Martinez and David Silva all available. This gives Spain huge capacity to rotate.
The fact that Isco hasn’t even made the provisional squad and that there are questions regarding Juan Mata making the final squad show the incredible depth that they have.
There are also fresher faces coming in up front. Diego Costa and Alvaro Negredo add a different option with considerably more brawn to go with the goals.
Fernando Torres has been a fading force for some time now, but he will be an experienced player – if he manages to sneak on to the plane. David Villa also offers an old head and the Barca forward Pedro is always a reliable option.
At the back, if Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos remain fit and free of suspension they are formidable paring.
Should Iker Casillas continue in goal after a season mainly on the sidelines, they have a fine, tournament-hardened keeper with two excellent back up options. There are plenty of options at full back also with the likes of Jordi Alba and Carjaval.
Possibly more of a concern in people’s minds is not Spain’s personnel but more their style of play. The famed ‘tiki taka’ had previously seen all fall before it, with the opposition dizzying themselves into submission following the ball helplessly.
However, in the past couple of seasons, we have seen several results that have begun to imply that tactics are evolving and that a solution to tiki taka has been found.
In this season’s Champions League, we we have seen two teams playing this way systematically dismantled.
Firstly, in 2013 Bayern Munich thrashed Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate, simply blowing the Catalans away with a blend of pace, power and skill.
Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Bayern duly saw them adopt this possession-based method, and they in turn were ironed out 5-0 on aggregate by a vastly superior Real Madrid.
Madrid played a wonderful blend of stylish, counter-attacking football.
In addition to these two humblings, Brazil comfortably beat Spain 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final. Now while the Confederations Cup is nothing more than a glorified end of season World Cup warm up, it was indicative again that the system can now be combated effectively.
None of this is to say however that a canny operator such as Del Bosque cannot tweak Spain’s tactics effectively. One of the problems with the tiki taka approach has been the lack of a plan B.
If both Diego Costa and Negredo are on the plane, then there is a plan B right there. With players such as Busquets and Ramos in the squad, they are able to mix it with the best of them.
They also have huge tournament nous.
Spain remain one of the class acts in the field, but they are in a tough group and their face off against the Dutch in their opening clash will be key.
Even finishing second in the group could mean a tough route through the tournament.
A fourth-straight tournament win is probably a big ask for what has been one of the greatest teams in history. However, it will hopefully be fun and easy on the eye to watch them try.
For the World Cup Draw, World Cup squads and opinion, check out our World Cup page.
calum
Guest
so am I, that's my understanding of the mysterious events of 1966 aswell.... Add in Croatia in 98, and did Bulgaria not get to the SF in 1994?
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
The Euros have continually thrown up surprises, like you say Calum it's a smaller pool to choose from. But in the World Cup, how many times has a surprise team even got to the final never mind win it? There are usually the odd surprises that get to the semis (South Korea '02, Poland '82, Urguay '10) but the winner will come from one of the big boys. Look at the list of finalists, in the past 40 odd years it's always from the traditional nations. Just look at the list of finals, it is always the powerhouses that contest the final. The only exception to that rule and a weaker team won it was in '66 when England paid off a linesman and played all their games at Wembley. (Ok ok, I'm Scottish, I admit it..............!)
calum
Guest
Upsets are why we watch sport, but as you say, there were only 8 teams when Denmark won it, and as for Greece .... hmmmmmnnnn I think they had a solid, well drilled team, great coach, a big slice of luck and, er, (in my opinion only) a big slice of er 'luck'. I really don't want to be one of those guys that see's conpisracies or doping everywhere but when you see totally improbable results like that I think you would be stupid not to have thoughts regarding how it came about.
calum
Guest
Usually there is one big upset right? When a well fancied team goes home early. Like France in 2002. Uruguay are clearly a good team but it wouldn't shock me if they don't make it out of their group. They are in a brutal group. Costa Rica are usually strong (even though I think they'll come bottom of that group), and then it is Italy and England. And as Brian is saying, its a big difference between surprise package and expected last 8 or so. Italy are total pro's at all this, and don't have a crazy season like the premiership to drain most of their players, so usually are masters of negogiating the group stages. and as delighted as I'd be to see England fail, the thing with england is that (for once) nobody is actaully expecting them to do anything. Therefore, I actually expect them to get to the last 16 before running out of steam or QF, which would be an fair reflection of them as a team... which means Uruguay might miss out. I hope its England, but gut feel says Uruguay might go home at the first stage.
calum
Guest
I know, and they certainly looked strong in qualifying, even against the might of scotland, but I still think usually (although not always) as well as the individuals gainaing experience, they have to do it as a team aswell. Go that bit further each time, win as a team, grow as a team etc. :Like Germany teams have at the moment. Guess we'll see, they got an 'easier' group, so its a case of getting out of the group stages and seeing what happens. Getting seriously pumped for it now!
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Cheers Reginald!
Reginald Bomber
Roar Guru
Well put together Steven and a good read. Spain will make it through the first round, but I predict they will get eliminated in the Ro16, where they will face a South American team, possibly Brazil or Argentina depending on whether they finish 1 or 2. Save your money on Spain and put it on Argentina instead, Messi and the boys are set for a huge tournament and won't have to face Brazil till the final, if Brazil make it.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Very true Steele. Denmark's is an unusual story, having only got a last minute reprieve to be included in the finals (8 countries only in those days). If a dark horse is to come through - let us hope they do not win it in the same manner as Greece in 2004 (an extraordinary outcome as well, but for different reasons).
Steele
Guest
Greece and Denmark have both produced huge boil overs in the euro cup, so it might only be a matter of time before a roughie wins the World Cup.
RBBAnonymous
Guest
Never mentioned those weaker teams would win or even get close. The only thing I mentioned was that they have talented squads. Even these teams are capable of knocking over any team on their day.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Belgium have a terrific squad, top shelf players on every line. The NT might lack recent tournament experience, but the players have a lot of European club experience.
Calum
Guest
It's Very impressive - do you think a countries economy is relevant to their sporting performance?
Calum
Guest
Yeh I fancy Italy to do well. They got to the final of euro 2012 and presume they have most of that team returning. Plus they seem to always be team that could look shocking in the qualifiers and then do something at the tournament. More people are talking about Belgium than about Italy or holland. Completely inexplicable to me. Belgium have a lot of talented players but you need to have had big tournament experience. Those 2 countries are the last 2 European runners up to Spain...
Steve
Guest
Uruguay has s top GK in Muslera, a top defensive unit and superb attackers. There midfield is not the strongest, but their game will be to play on the counter. As long as the mids are good enough to get the ball quickly from the defense to Suarez, Cavani, Forlan/Rodriguez - they will do well.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
I do agree that is open but I don't think that teams such as Croatia or Japan are remotely worth consideration when talking about the eventual winner. You can currently get 200/1 on either team, the bookies are not usually that far wrong. Belgium has been discussed over a myriad of articles on the Roar. They've definitely got a (very) outside chance as they have some excellent players but given the conditions and the fact that not one of them has tournament experience means the next Euros are a far more realistic target for them. Interesting that Italy are 25/1 by the way. Worth an each way shout!? They usually find a way even when they're not all that good.......
RBBAnonymous
Guest
The great thing about this World Cup is that there are a lot of good teams and genuine chances to lift the cup. Considering how well Brasil have been playing at home you would have to favour them over Spain to lift the cup. You need to play well or you will find yourself on a plane back home. You just cant pin one country like Spain to win it, much easier to say they wont. Some of the so called "weaker teams" are talented. An example might be Sth Korea who have a decent domestic league and players littered all over the best leagues in Europe. Dark horses Belgium also have a good squad as does Japan or even Croatia. The world cup is just going to be insane. I cant safely pick a winner.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
I think there's a bit of a) there doesn't look like there is much depth to the side but b) not many of us actually know much about them to comment properly. We all know Suarez and Cavani and of course the ageing Forlan but after that many of us (including myself) are probably a bit none the wiser. Certainly looking at their squad, whilst not all are household names they are generally play for very good clubs with the odd exception. Oscar Tabarez is a wily old fox also. I just feel their finish the last time around whilst admirable had a lot of fortune. France imploded in the group stage so famously and then in the knockout they beat South Korea and Ghana (on penalties) before a cracking game and going out against the Dutch. The Dutch were the only one of the real front runners that they met. I think they're a very good side but I just don't think they have the quality to win it.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
To be honest Brian I don't think Brazil will fancy playing the Spanish either, or the Dutch! That side of the draw is tough indeed. I think with Brazil it's all about momentum, if they get some they'll be very hard to stop and Scolari has the know how from winnig it before. You make a good point about Spain regenerating players, they seem to be doing it very well. Isco (I know he's not in the squad) and Alcantara are two more prime examples. They're going to be a force for some time it would seem.
Brian
Guest
Forlan is still there but his value when compared to 2010 is miniscule. A bit like Dormund & Napoli in 2012-13 I've noticed when teams exceed expectations its often a solid defence combined with 3 potenet attacking options. This was Uruguay's method in 2010. Without Forlan I don't know who would compliment Suarez & Cavani.
Brian
Guest
Its true they have not taken on Brazil or Argentina in a big game and won. Paraguay in 2010 did pretty well so we can only speculate on how they would go. Nonetheless they destroyed Italy 4-0 in 2012. I think they can win provided firstly they regenerate their XI rather then relying purely on the older cure. Juanfran and Costa from Atletico being two prominent exmples. The other thing is they need to avoid Brazil in the 2nd Round. I think that would be too early for them