Deja vu all over again for the stumbling Brumbies

It struck me as Jacques-Louis Potgieter potted his sixth penalty goal in the 62nd minute of the game.

The Bulls led the Brumbies 37-13 in their Super Rugby Round 15 match in Pretoria, and the bonus-point fourth try looked a matter of when, not if.

Were the Brumbies painting themselves into the same corner they did in 2012?

Lacklustre performance in the final round of that season dropped them from third overall to seventh. They ultimately missed the playoffs by just a bonus point, and with one win less than the Australian Conference winners, the Reds, despite a superior for-and-against record.

In a crazy weekend of table movement, the Brumbies and the Chiefs emerged as the big losers, both on the back of big losses to teams well below them on the table. The Chiefs, third heading into Round 15, were brought undone by the eighth-placed Hurricanes.

The Brumbies were second overall, yet capitulated to the ninth-placed Bulls at their Loftus Versfeld fortress.

Both losses sent the now-former conference leaders into free-fall. The Brumbies slipped to seventh, while the Chiefs’ inferior win record – they notched two draws in South Africa earlier in the season – dropped them all the way down to eighth.

Suddenly, the two teams who fought it out for the 2013 Championship look incredibly vulnerable, and with a massive turnaround required in less than a week to ensure they remain finals contenders.

I did predict three weeks ago that the Chiefs would fall short of the finals, even if I found that difficult to swallow at the time. I also had the Brumbies finishing well inside the top six, a point short of topping the Australia conference in fourth.

After the weekend’s fixtures, one prediction looks disturbingly on the money while the other looks well short of the mark.

And while the Chiefs’ loss seemed a bit out of character – they had the bye last weekend, and won well the week before that – the signs of the Brumbies’ slide had been there for a few weeks.

They tweaked their approach and game plan for the arrival of former coach, Jake White, and his Sharks a month ago, which was largely expected. It was a tweak they were widely criticised for, even if much of that criticism was lazy, as I wrote at the time.

The Brumbies have since looked and played as if they’re stuck in this same game plan, and with no real idea of how to get out of it.

In Pretoria, this played directly into the Bulls’ hands. While the Bulls kicked with intent and chased hard to create contests, the Brumbies kicked long on auto-pilot, usually to a Bulls sweeper, and very rarely with any kick-chase pressure coming through.

In fairness, this time the Brumbies did look to hold the ball once they got anywhere near their own 40-metre line. When they did kick, they too often let themselves down by kicking straight to a Bulls player, with little sign of pressure and certainly no contest.

It was the same with their restarts. They actually regained the ball from the one short kickoff they used, and even the three others they did get through on made it hard for the Bulls to retain possession.

So why then did the Brumbies kick long to an uncontested catch on nine other occasions?

This kind of strange decision-making haunted them all game. When ground was being made and the phases were being built, a lazy or non-existent cleanout allowed the Bulls a free shot at a steal. More than half their turnovers conceded were from handling errors. The Bulls would hoof it back downfield and chase through hard, so any territory advantage the Brumbies may have created was lost.

And their discipline remains a massive issue, both at the ruck and at set-piece. The Brumbies have gifted their opposition 26 shots at penalty goal over the past month, of which 20 have been successful.

Potgieter had eight shots and kicked three penalties either side of halftime – a major factor in the Bulls’ 24-point lead by time he was replaced after landing the aforementioned sixth penalty.

The Brumbies have scored only one try less than their opposition in the last month, yet the three losses in that time have been by more than 15 points on average. They’ve rebuilt themselves in recent years on being hard at the breakdown and will always run the risk of crossing the line, and that’s fine.

What’s not fine are full-arm penalties from set-piece or for being offside at the breakdown, and conceding penalties while in possession because of lazy attacking ruck work.

It all makes for an interesting week ahead in preparation for what has now become a game of vital importance. The Rebels have already beaten the Brumbies once this year, but have never won in Canberra, while the Brumbies must win – and win well – to prove that they can get out of their current slump.