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With just six or seven rounds of Super Rugby to come depending on your conference, we’re rapidly approaching that time where phrases like “must-win”, “season-defining” and even “mathematical chance” become commonplace.
Byes no longer earn points, so at the start of the season pundits reasoned that if 57 to 58 points were enough to qualify for the finals in previous years, 50 would be enough to qualify and perhaps even top conferences in 2014.
Fellow Roarer ‘Die hard’ has been espousing his theory of 50 points topping the competition for some time.
I picked him up on this a few times because I genuinely thought it was too low, especially when totals well into the 60s have been required to top conferences in previous years. The Sharks, Stormers, and Reds have all finished on 66 points to claim first place in the three years of the conference format.
But after sitting down over the weekend to look at the rest of the draw and consider just how close this season has been, I’ve concluded that the qualifying totals will be a lot lower than just previous season cut-offs minus eight points for the bye. It turns out ‘Die hard’ is bang on.
One major reason for the lower totals this season is the closeness of the competition. At this same point last season five of the top six teams had seven wins under their belt, with the Brumbies sitting atop the overall table courtesy of two draws.
The 2013 table finished with the Chiefs and Bulls on 12 wins, the Crusaders with 11, and the Brumbies, Reds, and Cheetahs rounding out the top six with 10 wins.
Even though the points tallies will be lower this season because of the closeness, 10 wins is still going to be the required number. But I can only see five teams managing 10 wins.
The seven-point gap between the Bulls and Rebels is the logical line in the sand for such forward projections. Of the teams in the bottom five, the Lions could possibly get to ten wins, but given their next three games are in Australia and New Zealand that seems unlikely. And that’s before considering their current form, or lack thereof.
Here’s the big-ticket item: I think the Chiefs will miss the top six.
With six games to come, four of them against the Blues and Hurricanes, and three away from home where their record this year hasn’t been great, I think the Chiefs’ horror injury run will finally prove too much.
Furthermore, with two home games in New Plymouth, where they’ll play in front of the Taranaki faithful still trying to work out whether to switch from the Hurricanes, home ground advantage against the Blues and Waratahs may be scant. The Chiefs’ two draws in South Africa always meant they wouldn’t get to ten wins, but now I don’t think they’ll even get nine.
I’d never have thought the Chiefs were in danger a fortnight ago, but now they are.
The Highlanders, Blues and Bulls will miss out. All three can get to eight wins, but unless they can jag a bonus point in every game between now and then, it won’t be enough.
This means I have a top six comprising the Sharks, Waratahs, and Crusaders topping the conferences, followed by the Brumbies, Force, and the Hurricanes sneaking into sixth.
I have the top-four teams all finishing with 11 wins, the Force 10, and the Hurricanes 9.
By these calculations and some estimations about bonus points, the Sharks and Waratahs finish on 50 points and the Crusaders 48, with the Brumbies on 49 but finishing fourth under this format. The Force finish with 48 points in my projections and the Hurricanes 45, with the Chiefs missing the top six by just one point.
The projections are based on current form, but largely on teams winning home games, as has been the case for the best part of 80 per cent of games this season. Away teams have won just 16 of the 74 games played to date. Here are my predictions.
Sharks (50pts)
Don’t win another game on tour but win all three on return to South Africa, including home and away against the Stormers and away to the Cheetahs.
Waratahs (50)
Win their next two against the Lions and Rebels (a), with a bonus point in one of them. Drop the game in New Plymouth to the Chiefs, but then win their last three, including the decisive Round 17 game against the Brumbies.
Crusaders (48)
The best run home in my projections, including a streak of the Reds (a), the Sharks, Highlanders (a) and Force. Drop one to the Hurricanes in Wellington, but two home wins to finish.
Brumbies (49)
Learn from their Christchurch mistakes to beat the Sharks this weekend, take one of two games in South Africa, and win their remaining two home games. A couple of bonus points along the way, including the loss to the Waratahs.
Force (48)
Also win one and lose one on tour, losses away to the Crusaders and Brumbies, and three home wins over the Lions, Blues, and Reds. Bonus points in wins over lowly opposition, as well as the last match in Canberra, which could have as big a bearing on the Australian conference as the Chiefs-Hurricanes match on the New Zealand conference the week before.
Hurricanes (45)
Take the Rebels away this round coming, plus likely high-scoring bonus-point wins against the Highlanders and Chiefs, and an upset of sorts at home against the Crusaders. Losses away to the Blues and Chiefs, with a potential bonus point in one of them.
Chiefs (44 – 7th)
Win their home games, including both in New Plymouth against the Blues and Waratahs, but drop away games to the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Blues. A couple of bonus points along the way, but not enough to get past the Hurricanes.
Don’t take these as gospel – and don’t even joke about basing your tips on them – but it will be interesting to see how close or distant these projections are.