The June Internationals are upon us and this means that Super Rugby takes a hiatus while the international players bash the hell out of their Northern Hemisphere counterparts.
The men that didn’t get the call up will play for their clubs to keep in shape and in condition.
Over the next three days, we’ll look at which teams have a chance of getting into the play-off rounds and what went wrong for the others.
As of Round 16, the cellar dwellers are the Cheetahs, Rebels and Lions. After last year people expected the Cheetahs to back their season up with another good year but they have stumbled and bumbled to earn three victories and a draw, accumulating 20 points.
There isn’t any obvious reason why they landed up at the bottom compared to last year. There hasn’t been a player exodus and the coaching personnel hasn’t changed. They have scored 32 tries, more than the table-topping Sharks, and Willie le Roux has made the second-most metres in the competition.
The glaring flaw in their stats is the points difference, letting through more points than any other team with a -127 points difference. That is a huge deficit and explains why they sit at the bottom of the table and highlights the lack of physical defence.
One point clear of them sit the Rebels. They showed so much promise at the beginning of the year but seemed to fall into the same rut as before and lost games they potentially could have won and are fighting to stay off the bottom.
They have proven they can win against their bigger Australian counterparts, beating the Reds, Brumbies and Force, but have failed to put together a winning streak of more than one week.
They haven’t fired at all this season and there have been few stand-out players, so they find themselves in the same position as they have been in the past. They need better team cohesion and the ability to shut out the opposition.
Sitting third from the bottom are the Lions, who have surprised a few people with strong victories over more fancied opponents.
At the beginning of the season they managed to win four from six, but then lost the next seven until beating the Bulls in Round 16. They were touted to be the most improved team of the season, coming back from the wilderness last year, but have found themselves near the bottom again.
They deserve some slack as they are a very young and inexperienced team – a large percentage of their roster had less than 10 caps at the beginning of the season. Johan Ackerman has brought together a young team and has grown the potential in them to beat the Reds, Stormers and Bulls.
The Reds, Stormers and Blues are the three teams that have surprised people in their failures this year.
Former champions, the Reds have been a shadow of their former selves since Ewen McKenzie left for the Wallaby job. I wonder if he watches the Reds and wonders, “What did you do to my baby?” Richard Graham couldn’t do a thing with the Force so why do people think he could do anything with the Reds?
The win over the Highlanders lifted them off the bottom of the table but their season is over and has been for a long time. They couldn’t put together more than one-win in a row and had a six-game losing streak before breaking it in a bit of style and drama against the Highlanders.
The Stormers have the same issue – an out-of-touch coach. Allister Coetzee may have led the Stormers into the play off finals in previous years, but he has constricted the players to predictive plays and unimaginative rugby.
The injury list for the Stormers is long and this can count against the potential victories but all teams have suffered injuries and this is not a viable excuse for losing this badly throughout the season.
The Blues had all the hype after signing Benji Marshall and John Kirwan promising results, but that all fell apart by Round 8, with three wins from eight. Marshall became a side attraction and eventually returned to the NRL.
The Blues haven’t got much to show for their season besides making Auckland a fortress, without a loss in Eden Park this year. That is something to be proud of but little else. While the other New Zealand teams fight each other, with six points separating them, the Blues sit ten points from the conference-leading Crusaders.
It’s been 11 years since they won the trophy and it looks like it’ll be another decade before they see any silverware again.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Bsed on the way the Blues have buckled in every away game this year they will be lucky to get a point from their 2 away games
Garth
Guest
As long as the Highlanders & Hurricanes win theirs....
The Bush
Roar Guru
I was willing to give Richard Graham the benefit of the doubt as Link came off of being sacked by Stade Francais (and I was nervous about him), but he turned out to be a genius and the Reds outfit has been so professional I assumed they knew what they were doing. Obviously not.
Warren Adamson
Roar Pro
That's about the time that McKenzie was handing over the reigns to Graham. McKenzie took up the director of rugby job and gave Graham the coaching role...again this is a bit of a strange coincidence.
stillmatic1
Guest
didn't get 30k through last week jimbo. and wont get near it again if the slide continues.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Burn the witch. Nothing but a witch hunt.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Yes Yogi, the team isnt good enough, it happens. Point the finger all you like but its just one of those things that happens to teams. Your players arnt good enough or are out of form. Nail, head.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Its right to have doubts but I think its not a bad bet. They could just as easily lose all 3 but that Blues side is capable.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
If they make it into the finals, and I think they just might, the other teams will not want to play them.
Two Eyed Cyclop
Roar Guru
France and England are, the rest aren't, baffling really. You'd think they'd all agree or disagree as they are in the same boat.
Common Sense
Guest
They were playing poorly before he left. 2012 infact.
Warren Adamson
Roar Pro
Chivas, I don't really like Ewen McKenzie - neither as a player or coach but the coincidence of his departure and the form of Reds leads me to believe that having Graham as a coach is a major factor. Graham coached the Force for two years after John Mitchell. The Force haven't been a great team until this year. Basically Graham couldn't do a thing with them finishing 12th and 14th during his tenure. There are back door discussions, I'm sure but speculation and wild guesses isn't what I'm all about. I don't believe in coincidences either, so to see the Reds begin to fall after a successful campaign with a new coach, I take it for what it is. Bad referee calls and all the consequential stuff effects ALL teams, so get over it and look at the results and form. Cooper isn't that good this year compared to the championship season. Genia is so far out of form that he has been dropped from the Wallabies. The Reds scrum resembles a chew toy for the bigger packs. Overall the team form is low and the belief to win only showed up in round 16. On a side note, it amazes me how many people have commented on the Reds' form in the comments. It seems to be a sore point for the supporters and I can understand. They have the talent to get back to the top but need guidance and correct coaching. I'm sure that the rot starts at the head, but I honestly don't know enough of the boardroom politics to comment and write about what I see in the public arena backed with stats.
Spencer
Guest
Sorry...what did you say?
Chivas
Guest
And that is fair comment Yogi. My comment was to the amount of air the author blows up EM's butt and the degree of blame he lays at Graham's feet with little to no consideration of any of the back room discussions or negotiations. To be honest your suggestion to throw the baby out with the bath water only has merit in light of not knowing any of the facts. For me to provide an answer without any idea either would be equally ludicrous. Let us assume for a moment iris the coach. Who is the right coach that would fit with this team. Quade clearly has firm opinions about who he wants to play for and under. And I'm sure he is not the only strong or divisive personality on the squad. So that in itself would appear to mean the coach needs to be subservient to the players. To be fair to the red team they are currently offloading on external parties.but I am pretty sure without results that will soon change and they will cannibalise themselves. So you need a coach for this environment. I do believe with some personal issues and some poor refereeing decisions their season has been tougher thN it should have been. Anyone who ignores that is also kidding themselves. Take a look at the Chiefs this season. As I commented earlier, I also wonder if Charmichael isn't holding the purse strings tight and hamstringing the coaching group a little more than is necessary. There are so many unknowns here Yogi, it is nigh impossible to comment without facts. How did they fall off so badly in one season defensively? Was Link really the master of all things good and all failures Graham's fault? The same EM who saw the demise of the Tahs. The same guy who got booted from France. Stay far enough ahead of the sht then hopefully it doesn't stick. If he is given so much understanding, why is Graham afforded so little. So unfortunately as a distant observer I don't have the answers. I just find it intriguing that others who have no more information are so certain that the problems lie with Graham. But as I say fans are fans, and who cares about facts. Ditch the guy and string him up for treason :-)
Yogi
Guest
As I said in my post below the responsibility goes well past Graham. Jim Carmichael and the reds admin have questions to answer. The assistant coaches too. The players do as well. I am sure Link does as well to a much lesser extent. But we are talking about how to fix the problem. Link is long gone. The answer IMO is a new coaching team. Happy to hear any ideas you may have. Not sure how you conclude that link oversaw the tahs demise when they got to the GF in his final year.
Pete
Guest
As a Highlanders fan, I'm definitely supporting the Blues in their last three games (never thought I'd write that!) - any losses for the Chiefs, Force and Crusaders are good for us.
Chivas
Guest
I see. Link is blameless and Graham is totally to blameabd the supports staff, administration are all equally blameless. And we know all this because someone said so here on the roar. It is just a bit much Yogi. In 40 odd years watching and playing footy, I have never seen a team rise or fall in a season all because of one man. That sort of simplistic view can only exist here. Regardless of what you think of Graham's pedigree, he can't be completely useless and if he were, then you really need to look at those who appointee and supporter him. I remember Ewen overseeing the demise of the Tahs. Chieka seems to have righted the ship. But it's not all him. He has had some not inconsiderable support. Most clubs would love to have the personnel the Tahs have amassed. Last year Foley was the worst coach on the planet, now he is a legend. Warren's comments appear more that of the rabid fan than a well considered commentator. But like many things simple ideas seem to take root, because they are easier to grasp and require less consideration of all the nuances. Too a large degree if you look at the pages of the roar, most posts and many articles fall into the former category as it is more controversial and dramatic. I thought the reds would struggle this year based on their performance last year for which Link was only responsible for the good and Graham the bad. All seems a bit too tidy for me and that is just based on my observations in the rise and fall of teams across the decades. How many of these players developed by Ewen are in the Wallabies?
Winston
Guest
The chiefs are my biggest surprise. Not too many changes in personnel yet they are looking at missing the playoffs unless they can put decent wins in.
Harry
Guest
Reds have been poor in defence since about round 3 when I think they eased up their gainline pressure because of the penalty count against them. And the Tahs monstering them in round 2 was a blow. 3 dismal performances against NZ sides the low point, although great to see them put up a good show against the Highlanders. Weaknesses in the back row, second row depth and at 15 apparent. Recruiting JOC or Karmichael Hunt MAY address the fullback problem. Good to see Browning playing well the last game and if him, Quirk and Schatz are rotated next year we may do better in the 6 and 8 position. Need another big lock to step up and backup Horwill and Simmons. And better depth at tighthead. All in all, an awful lot to work on and that is before the inevitable Quade contract negotiation saga. Personally I'll be disappointed if he goes but please, lets not have the palaver we had in 2013.
Harry
Guest
Agree with point 2. But not really point one. All teams have injuries and the Reds have been relatively unscathed - been mainly in the outside backs but they can still field an all Wallaby combination of Harris at fullback, Shipperly and Rocket Rod on the wings, and Taps and Ant in the centres. Turner, Toua and F'Sautia are all injury pone alas so this could not have been unexpected.