Earlier in the week we had a look at which clubs faced the toughest draw for the first half of the season. To determine this I used the ‘strength of draw’ statistic, which is simply the average wins each team’s opposition has had.
For example, Hawthorn’s opponents so far this year have an average of 5.5 wins – which is the league average after 11 games this season.
We found out Fremantle, Brisbane, North Melbourne and Geelong had the hardest start to the year, while the Bulldogs, the Suns and the Power had the easiest.
We can apply this same formula for the remaining 11 games to gauge the strength of each teams draw, remembering that up to this point 5.5 wins is the league average.
Below (in order of hardest to easiest) is each team’s strength of draw for the remainder of the season.
Teams and rating (second half season)
Carlton – 6.7 average wins by opponent
Western Bulldogs – 6.4
Hawthorn – 6.2
Melbourne – 5.9
Essendon – 5.7
Adelaide – 5.6
Port Adelaide – 5.6
Gold Coast – 5.5
Brisbane – 5.5
West Coast – 5.5
Collingwood – 5.4
Greater Western Sydney – 5.3
St.Kilda – 5.3
Richmond – 5.3
Sydney – 5.1
Geelong – 4.8
Fremantle – 4.6
North Melbourne – 4.3
On the basis of this list, Kangaroos supporters can start booking their tickets for September. They are a certainty to finish in the eight and should be pushing for a spot in the top four with this draw.
Fremantle look poised to mount a serious challenge for the minor premiership, while Hawthorn will have done a terrific job if they can squeeze themselves into one of the top four spots by year’s end.
The race for the eighth spot on the ladder is probably down to four clubs, in Gold Coast, Essendon, Adelaide and West Coast. With neither of those clubs having a particularly easy draw, you’d expect Gold Coast to hold on to that final spot.
We’ve covered both the first and second halves of the season so let’s add them together and see which clubs have the toughest draw for the full season.
Team and rating (full season)
Carlton – 11.8
Hawthorn – 11.7
Brisbane – 11.6
Fremantle – 11.3
Adelaide – 11.3
West Coast – 11.2
Melbourne – 11.1
Western Bulldogs – 11
Geelong – 10.9
Sydney – 10.9
Essendon – 10.8
St.Kilda – 10.8
Greater Western Sydney – 10.8
Richmond – 10.7
Collingwood – 10.7
Port Adelaide – 10.6
North Melbourne – 10.4
Gold Coast – 10.3
It should be noted that these win totals are based on the first 11 games of the season and they will no doubt be slightly different later on,
However it is still an effective tool in analysing each teams draw for the remainder of the season.
Penster
Guest
Aka the Sydney v Geelong game. Agree that was a big ask from Geelong, odds weren't in their favour to begin with.
Gregor
Guest
No WA side should ever have to play in Tasmania. Every Victorian side should play eight times interstate each season. And each interstate side should play at least twice on the MCG. No complaints about travel will be entertained. Just ask Darren Glass.Like Sumich,Hunter,Lamb or Heady, injuries made worse by travel brought about premature retirement. The Eagles have only had 40 players reach 100 games in the past 28 years compared to Geelong with 47 players reaching or playing 100 games in the same period and Hawthorn with 68 - and Geelong has had 36 players play 150+ games in the same period and Hawthorn 38, to the Eagles 26. . Even based on the prejudicial ( and wrong)view that they started with a state strength team and therefore superior players, the conclusion can easily be made that the draw will always disadvantage the WA sides most because their players are the most adversely affected by travel throughout the season and every season. The 100 -150+ window is where you want your best players to be, but they're injured or susceptible because of past injuries that you have to manage with a five hour delay every second week, then your players and team management have to be superior just to get on even terms. Let's get another five years of the bye in various permutations before we bleat about conspiracy.
John Wilkins
Guest
You can roll stats anyway you like, you can make a negative look like a positive by just changing a parameter here, a cut off point there. The real point to be remembered here is that when the "draw" is constructed the AFL determines how it EXPECTS the ordering will pan out and then uses that as a basis to determine the FIXture, ie the teams whose stocks it wishes to rise will be allocated repeat games against teams that are expected to be weaker and vice versa. The only saving grace for teams the AFL are determined to negatively equalise is that they don't always get it right. Some teams end up performing better, others worse than anticipated. The rest of the "draw" (ironic since it means "by chance") is greatly affecting by the types of things Gene has mentioned above.... And they are constructed specifically to advantage/disadvantage teams in the AFL Stockmarket. Remember, none of this is an actual "Draw" , it's planned, orchestrated, by design. Sometimes it's as simple as if two teams play only once whose home ground is it played on (a big advantage in certain contests), other times its a more complex strategy, eg when Sydney last played the Cats in Sydney off the back of two weeks of rest whilst Geelong was playing its third game in 12 days including a trip to WA. and the game was extraordinarily scheduled for a Thursday night! Some teams like Geelong get to play just 7 games on their home ground, whilst others get 12 or 13 on theirs, but perhaps more tellingly teams like Hawthorn, Collingwood etc NEVER have to play Geelong at Shell Stadium for instance, all Geelong home games are alway$ on their home Ground. Unless its an interstate team that they play twice, games against better performed teams are almost always scheduled away from Kardinia Park. The Cats are just an example of a team whom the AFL want to put as much weight as they can under the saddle of in order to lower their stock, whilst favouring the teams they want to see rise (eg. Sydney) to further their agenda of fiscal and brand expansion.
Cat
Roar Guru
I think 6 day breaks can be managed to an extent, but back to back 6 day break and playing interstate and against an opponent who hasn't had the short turnaround becomes a bit much. I don't think there is all that much difference if one team has a 6 day break and another has 7 or 8, but one team playing 3 games in 13 days vs. another team playing 1 game in the same period is an issue. Certainly the fixture should be attempting to reduce the back to back short breaks and at least giving the team on the shorter break the game at home.
TomC
Roar Guru
I take it, Gene, that you disagree with Chris Scott on the impact of 6 day breaks? I disagree with him, myself.
Cat
Roar Guru
To get a real feel for how tough a draw is you also need to factor in things like a team coming off back to back 6 day breaks vs another team off a bye or one team at home with 8 days rest and another flying cross country on 6 days break. There's more to toughness of fixture than just who you play, it who, where and when. So far you have covered the who, I hope you will consider continuing with this series and explore the where and when factors as well.