This year, more than any in recent memory, it feels like there’s a bit of a gap between the top seven or eight sides and the rest.
The general consensus in the footy media is that the Top 8 is set in stone, and it’ll be a matter of jostling for positions for the remainder of the season.
Given there are still some nine rounds (with eight games per side) remaining in the regular season of 2014, it does seem a bit premature to be making such a bold call.
With Essendon and Adelaide just a game and two games respectively from eighth place, for mine there’s still a chance we’ll see a bit of movement. Gold Coast’s upset win over Geelong on Saturday afternoon certainly shook things up a bit, as did Essendon’s victory over the Crows in the evening.
But, realistically, the vast majority of the Top 8 is in place, and has probably been so since Round 3 or 4. How do I know that?
The stats tell me so.
This graphic shows how many of the eventual top eight were in the eight at the conclusion of each round between 2004 and 2013. You’ll notice that by around the middle of the season – Round 11 or so – we’ve seen at least six of the eventual Top 8 in place every season.
By the time we get to Rounds 16 and 17, the Top 8 teams are pretty much in place and in most seasons the Top 8 is done and dusted completely by Round 20 or 21.
There have been some exceptions in recent history, though. In 2004 and 2005, a Top 8 spot changed hands in the final round – coincidently (or not) Fremantle lost its place on both occasions.
2010 was a particularly remarkable season, with the Top 8 pretty much set from Round 11 onwards. An interesting feature of this season was that there were three dominant teams (Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood), with the other five Top 8 teams pretty close.
Sounds familiar doesn’t it?
2013 was another year of little variance, with the Top 8 in place from Round 13 onwards.
So, what do you think? Is the Top 8 set after Round 14? Has it been set for a little while now? And if it’s not, who’s going to move in or out over the remaining two months of the regular season?
Don Freo
Guest
Add to that things like The Coleman, The Brownlow, The Rising Star and All Oz selection. Even the High Court and Essendon, the order of draft picks and speculation about player and coach movements. Never a dull moment. The only certainties are Bruce, Dennis and Eddie will get a year older.
Don Freo
Guest
Michael, a WA guy! My apologies for all those sledges about rugby mentality.
Jakarta Jeff
Guest
The final 8 will be absolutely clear cut within 2 rounds. Of course there are external factors which could dramatically change outcomes. With so many teams playing against each other in the top 10, many "surprise" results could shape the 8. Collongwood have a tough draw and could tumble to 8th. North look safe and could make 5th. Freo could stumble etc. 7 teams seem safe in the 8 with only Gold Coast and Essendon really in the hunt for 8th. GC seem to have the edge with their draw but will stamina impact their home run. Essendon are known faders, but sometime that will change. The next 2 weeks for both those teams will determine if they are contenders or pretenders for 2014. Let's revisit in 2 weeks and we'll have the answers.
Michael huston
Guest
As a WA guy I can safely say the media is more bias towards one side than the fans. During West Coasts hey-day, the news was centered around Judd & co while Freo may as well have been a reserves side in the eyes of the media. Now Freo are winning, theres a whole lot of Fremantle worshipping, with Nic Naitanui being the only player from WC who gets any attention. They're so fickle, they just obsess over the better team of the two and practically forget the others exist. The fans are actually not that bad, and both have been fairly gracious (as a collective state of supporters) in the opposing team achieving success.
Jason K
Guest
I think there is enough room in the top 8 for some drama and action even late into the season. The WHOLE top 8 is not set by quarter way into the season; maybe 4-5 teams start to lock in their odds of staying in the top 8. By mid-season, statistically, 6 teams are clinched. There's at least 4 teams with a realistic shot at the last two positions in the top 8, so that is where the story goes mid-season and it's a good story to watch. I would agree with Don Freo that teams don't need to be premiership bound to put on a fun and interesting show. What can one do to bring more unpredictability to the standings? Super goals.
Jason K
Guest
It's still going to be great to watch things unfold the rest of the season, even if much of the top 8 is set. The mid-season of any sport is always a bit of a grind, but there is going to be tons of great plays and good story lines yet to unfold in 2014. No one has a lock on the championship. Essendon, West Coast and Suns just get more interesting week after week.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Fair enough Don, most on roar from over there love one club and love to hate the other. It a good attertude you have towards them, more should think that way. Both of them represent WA after all . Im on the East Coast so i dont know what people over that way are like with them, my preference is West Coast out of the two.
Don Freo
Guest
Just a parochial West Aussie. There are more of us who barrack for both sides than those who hate one and love the other. The haters are just louder. I am passionate about them both...apart from the Derby when there is only one "...way to go".
Don Freo
Guest
If that's the case at the end of the season, yes.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
I thought Gold Coast would bottom out but after their win and Adelaide's loss I'm happy to agree that top 8 is as it is now. Only way Adelaide would have any chance of contention once more is that they beat MOST if not all of their games for the rest of the season. Starting with Power this week. I doubt it.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
You make a very good point there. I haven't looked in detail at the figures, but I reckon this round was the highest scoring of the year so far. That, plus 8 of 9 teams cracked triple digits. I don't know, but it "feels" a bit more balanced than earlier in the year.
Axle an the guru
Guest
I've never herd a Focker supporter stick up for West Coast like you do Don. Its very unusual.
Axle an the guru
Guest
They dont have the talent to beat the best Don otherwise they would be in the top four. Wouldnt you agree??
Axle an the guru
Guest
Wheres there credit due Don?? What credit do you give them. Please enlighten me??
johno
Guest
No, you always keep going! Stats are there to also show up the exceptions. Some teams make finals runs from nowhere. In 2006 in round 14 Fremantle sat 9th and then proceeded to go on a 9 game winning streak that saw them finish 3rd on the ladder and get the double chance. We don't think it will happen this year but if the Bombers, in 9th, won their next 9 straight then they would be 16 wins and 6 losses. 16 wins would get you into the top 4 in 2013. Freo missed the GF by falling at the last hurdle away to the Swans.... at one stage looking like causing an upset. You always keep going - anything can happen in this game
Don Freo
Guest
If we are only watching footy to see who makes the finals, there's something wrong. I can find a Doggies/Saints game interesting. Maybe I don't see them as contenders but I still enjoy watching for emerging players, tenacious veterans...passion. The finals provides cream on the cake but just because some won't make it does not render them devoid of interest.
Don Freo
Guest
West coast beat Gold Coast. Or, did you mean a top eight side from last year? They did that too. Remember that much of the top eight has been bottom feeding on the Saints and Dogs et al while others have these sides to come. Sides like Freo don't have "easy draws". They are in the easier run of a difficult draw. The quirky draws mean that ladder position is not necessarily a trend that will hold up; it is just an indication of where things are at the moment. Just under half the season to go.
Macca
Guest
If they lose to Essendon that would be most unexpected.
Shane Jones
Roar Guru
It is over. Essendon will be caught up in the ASADA controversy. Adelaide are too inconsistent, and will fall short, despite having an awesome run home. West Coast just don't have the quality to win the big matches they need to win. Gold Coast and North have fantastic runs home.
MAF1970
Guest
Not so sure Geelongs losses will be unexpected anymore - if they don't get past Essendon on the weekend we can be fairly sure they will be only making up numbers come September...............if they are lucky enough to stay there for September.