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This year, more than any in recent memory, it feels like there’s a bit of a gap between the top seven or eight sides and the rest.
The general consensus in the footy media is that the Top 8 is set in stone, and it’ll be a matter of jostling for positions for the remainder of the season.
Given there are still some nine rounds (with eight games per side) remaining in the regular season of 2014, it does seem a bit premature to be making such a bold call.
With Essendon and Adelaide just a game and two games respectively from eighth place, for mine there’s still a chance we’ll see a bit of movement. Gold Coast’s upset win over Geelong on Saturday afternoon certainly shook things up a bit, as did Essendon’s victory over the Crows in the evening.
But, realistically, the vast majority of the Top 8 is in place, and has probably been so since Round 3 or 4. How do I know that?
The stats tell me so.
This graphic shows how many of the eventual top eight were in the eight at the conclusion of each round between 2004 and 2013. You’ll notice that by around the middle of the season – Round 11 or so – we’ve seen at least six of the eventual Top 8 in place every season.
By the time we get to Rounds 16 and 17, the Top 8 teams are pretty much in place and in most seasons the Top 8 is done and dusted completely by Round 20 or 21.
There have been some exceptions in recent history, though. In 2004 and 2005, a Top 8 spot changed hands in the final round – coincidently (or not) Fremantle lost its place on both occasions.
2010 was a particularly remarkable season, with the Top 8 pretty much set from Round 11 onwards. An interesting feature of this season was that there were three dominant teams (Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood), with the other five Top 8 teams pretty close.
Sounds familiar doesn’t it?
2013 was another year of little variance, with the Top 8 in place from Round 13 onwards.
So, what do you think? Is the Top 8 set after Round 14? Has it been set for a little while now? And if it’s not, who’s going to move in or out over the remaining two months of the regular season?