Brownlow Banter: The odds are in Ablett's favour

It has been common knowledge almost all season that, given Gary Ablett’s scintillating form, the Suns captain and dual Brownlow Medalist was well on his way to a third.

Given Ablett’s ability to perform at such a high standard on a consistent basis, many joked that the only things that would stand in his way of a third ‘Charlie’ would be suspension or injury.

The former became a distinct possibility in Round 10 when Ablett was cited for unlawfully elbowing Liam Picken of the Western Bulldogs, but he was later cleared.

Fast forward six rounds and the latter has happened. Ablett sustained a dislocated shoulder against Collingwood.

The extent to which the injury will keep him on the sidelines is unknown.

Of course, no player has gone on to win the Brownlow Medal after missing more than four games, so he would need to rewrite history the claim the medal.

Only Haydn Bunton Sr, Dick Reynolds, Bob Skilton and Ian Stewart have won three Brownlows.

If one player is to do it, it would be Gary Ablett. But in order to do so he must have polled enough votes to win already. Has he?

I will compare the number of votes I have him polling this year in my phantom Brownlow to that which he polled at the same stage last season. Does he have enough of a lead to allow him to hold on?

There have been instances in past years where the Brownlow leader at Round 16 already had a strong enough lead to win.

Actual Brownlow standings at conclusion of Round 16, 2013
21 votes – Ablett
18 votes – Swan
18 votes – Dangerfield
18 votes – Hannebery
16 votes – Selwood
15 votes – Pendlebury

Heading into Round 17 last season, Ablett only held a narrow three vote lead over Dane Swan, Pat Dangerfield and Daniel Hannebery – who were his direct competition at this stage of the count. The eventual runner-up in Selwood was languishing back on 16 votes.

Now to compare it to my phantom Brownlow prediction at the same stage this year.

Brownlow Banter Phantom Leaderboard at conclusion of Round 16, 2014
25 – Ablett
18 – Fyfe*
17 – Pendlebury
15 – Selwood
15 – Kennedy

His direct competitors are around the same 16-18 vote mark as that of last season. But there is a stark contrast in the lead I have him on, which could be his saving grace if he does not play again.

Last season, he only led by a narrow three votes. This year he could have as much as a nine-vote lead over the next best, discounting Nat Fyfe from calculations due to suspension.

Going off my phantom Brownlow count, if Scott Pendlebury is eight votes behind he would need to poll just 1.14 votes a game across the remaining seven rounds in order to win, while Joel Selwood and Kennedy would need to poll 1.42 votes a game.

At first glance it may seem like an easy task to achieve, but when the numbers are crunched it doesn’t look so simple after all. If you average out the 17 votes he has polled across each of the 16 rounds thus far, Pendlebury has only polled at a rate 1.06 votes a game.

That is below the 1.14 votes he is required to poll from here on in. Similarly, Selwood and Kennedy have polled 0.93 votes a game – which is 0.5 or half a vote below the 1.42 average required in order to win.

All in all, every one of the top threats to Gaz will need to poll above their season average in order to topple him, but Pendlebury looks the biggest threat.

While there are a range of variables, it looks as if Ablett will have enough of a lead to hold on.

Ablett also has history on his side. In 2009, when he won his first Brownlow, he had already polled 23 votes by Round 16 and had an eight-vote lead over Chris Judd.

Had he not polled in another game from that point on, he still would have won by one vote. Likewise, Jobe Watson had polled 26 votes at the conclusion of Round 16 in 2012 to have tied the medal with Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell.

In 1998, Robert Harvey held enough of a lead at that same point in the season to win back-to-back Brownlows without needing to poll again.

It may take just three best on ground performances in order to topple Ablett, but at this stage it appears the odds are in Gaz’s favour.