Can Richie Porte do it?

Circumstance. Again. A few days ago, it was all about Marcel Kittel making the most of his circumstances to confirm his dominance of the sprints.

No Mark Cavendish and (until Stage 6) an out of sorts Andre Greipel helped the towering German win three stages of La Grand Boucle, in a relatively straightforward fashion.

Now, the fickle finger of circumstance is pointing at Richie Porte.

Many lamented his prospects when injury and illness took the Tasmanian out of Team Sky’s plans for an all-out assault on the Giro D’Italia. This was to be Richie’s time to show he has what it takes to be the Grand Tour leader many think he can be.

Sky soon announced that Porte would instead be factored into its plans for July, but this of course would be a support role for Chris Froome and maybe even a 3IC role behind Bradley Wiggins, who, it was also assumed, would ultimately be selected.

But four crashes (Froome’s three, Wiggins at Tour de Suisse) and some personality clashes later, the canvas is a completely new one. If Porte is able to pick up a brush, he can paint us a masterpiece.

I’m not so sure he can go all the way, unless a few more of the big names suffer some bad luck, but a podium finish is not out of the question.

On the saturated climbs of Gerardmer, the General Classification had its first shakeup since the pave of Stage 5. While he only finished fourth, Richie Porte was one of the day’s big winners.

Vincenzo Nibali is looking even more assured in yellow after easily countering Alberto Contador’s last-ditch attack. It was actually a little scary to see the placid look on the Italian’s face while Contador was turning himself inside out in a futile attempt to wrest back a few more seconds.

So with two weeks to go, Porte is now in a podium position. One week ago, you wouldn’t have thought that would be the case. So can he stay there?

If Porte wants to then, he needs to make another statement of intent. And soon, because Porte needs to address one of the issues that continues to blight him. His inconsistency.

He has some big steps over the past two days but one more is needed.

On Stage 7 into Nancy, he finished 19th and improved his position on GC by one to sixth. Importantly, he rode to the front in the final few km and managed to avoid the two chaotic crashes that would’ve had hearts racing in the Team Sky bus.

Saturday was the first stage in the Vosges Mountains, which beyond the Alps and Pyrenees form the third mountain adventure of this amazing event.

The clouds and rain that have followed the Tour since we got to France on Tuesday only added to today’s thrilling spectacle.

I’m hoping that Porte’s Tasmanian blood will ensure he revels in these conditions because the forecast is the same for the next two days.

Tomorrow will see the peloton plunge off the first Category 1 climb of the race before ramping over the Cat 3 Grand Ballon and into Mulhouse.

You’d expect another break to get away with the GC guys holding their fire until Monday’s hugely anticipated showdown on La Planche Des Belle Filles.

And if he wants some inspiration, Richie only has to remind himself of what happened two years ago on that very same summit finish.

In one of the most devastating team performances, Team Sky blew the race to pieces. Michael Rogers, just like he did today for Tinkoff Saxo, set a cracking pace before Porte took over.

Porte rode at such a ferocious tempo, the only riders that could go with him were teammates Chris Froome and Brad Wiggins, defending champion Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali and Rein Taaramae.

Watching at home it was like witnessing the real emergence of a future GC contender. But that feeling didn’t last too long.

Maybe he was just spent, maybe his job was done but Porte lost five minutes the following day and wasn’t able to help Wiggins and Froome on the final climb to Porrentruy.

Similarly, Porte got smashed by teammate Chris Froome on Stage 8 of last year’s Tour in what he described as; “his worst day of the year.”

This cannot happen. Not on Sunday and not on Monday.

If Porte can get to Tuesday’s rest day still in or very close to a podium position, then he will have banished those inconsistent performances that we’ve seen from him over the years.

The gap between his best and his “worst” has always been too big and it has to end. Otherwise, Porte will never mount a serious challenge as a Grand Tour contender.

He’ll also want a bit more luck for his Sky team. With the Jabier Zandio recently joining Chris Froome on the abandonment list, Porte only has six teammates.

But just maybe the circumstances that have pushed Porte into the leader’s role at Sky have done so at exactly the right time.

As he wrote in his diary on the Sydney Morning Herald following the stage into Nancy, Porte thinks he is ready.

“All in all, I felt good and in control of how I was racing.

“That alone was a first and positive signal that I am ready for what is to come. I feel day by day I am getting better and better.”

So the bergs of the Vosges are here and the intensity of this race has increased once more.

No pressure Richie, but how about it?

The cycling gods have just served you up a large slice of opportunity pie.

How hungry are you?

Can’t wait to find out.