Next weekend’s colossal match between Hawthorn and Sydney will have a massive impact on the premiership chances of both sides.
Sydney can go very close to sewing up a crucial top-two chance while a loss for the Hawks would put them at great risk of spending a lot of time on the road in the finals.
With the Swans and Fremantle their main challengers for a top two spot, the Hawks cannot afford to finish below them.
If they end the regular season outside the top two, Hawthorn could face the massive task of travelling interstate twice in the finals.
While the Hawks have a solid record on the road, trying to defeat the Dockers or Swans in their backyards in September would be remarkably difficult.
Fremantle have won 19 of their past 20 games in Perth while Sydney have turned the SCG in their personal torture chamber.
Hawthorn have an extremely tough run home with matches against league-leaders Sydney, second-placed Fremantle, fourth-placed Geelong and finals contenders Colingwood.
If they drop this weekend’s match, the Swans will be two games ahead of them and effectively out of reach. That would leave Hawthorn very likely needing to upset the Dockers in Perth in Round 21 to avoid a horribly-tricky finals fixture.
So it’s no exaggeration to say that their hopes of raising the premiership cup in 2014 may very well hinge on this weekend’s result.
Sydney, meanwhile, could scarcely be hotter favourites to snare the flag after an astonishing 12-game winning streak. Should they knock off the Hawks at the MCG – a ground where they have struggled over the past decade – the hype would reach an extraordinary level.
But they will have to overcome recent history, with Hawthorn having won six of their past seven games against Sydney at the MCG.
The Swans solitary triumph in that period just happened to be in the one match which really mattered – the 2012 grand final.
Their poor record at the home of football is not just limited to matches against the Hawks. Sydney have won only six of their past 23 games at the ground, although that ledger has been improving in recent times.
This time, however, they have the distinct advantage of fielding a man who is not only intimately familiar with the MCG but who is also the form player in the AFL right now.
Lance Franklin shapes as a nightmare match up for his old side. The big-money recruit has slotted 33 goals from his past eight games.
In Round 8, when he first encountered his former club, Franklin threatened to tear the match apart but was wasteful in front of goal, finishing with two goals and seven behinds from his 21 touches.
Hawthorn’s sole glaring weakness is its lack of quality tall defenders. Whoever they choose to match up on Franklin will need plenty of good fortune.
But despite the risk posed by “Buddy” and Sydney’s raft of potent midfielders, Hawthorn cannot be underestimated. They have been cruelled by injuries this season and have showcased their admirable depth to remain an elite side.
The Hawks will again be without several integral players, including enigmatic small forward Cyril Rioli, the dashing Bradley Hill, and key defenders Brian Lake and Josh Gibson.
Sydney, too, will not be at full strength with champion midfielder Dan Hannebery, spearhead Kurt Tippett and creative defender Rhys Shaw all to miss the match.
It will leave these two sides very closely matched. After this game we will have a clearer idea of who is likely to claim this year’s premiership.
Aransan
Guest
Gene, 30,000 tickets have been allocated to members of competing clubs at this year's GF. If the hangers on could be excluded to some extent you could allocate more than 30,000 tickets to members of the competing teams in a ground with capacity 70-80,000 as was the case with the 1991 GF held at Waverley.
Don Freo
Guest
He kicked one on Dawson, one on Johnson and was gifted a ridiculous holding free when it was Buddy doing the holding. He had 17 disposals, yes but McPharlin had 16. One on one Luke always gets him.
On the Line
Roar Rookie
Massive game, whatever way you look at it and, hopefully, if/when these teams line up against each other in the finals, they will have a full complement of players. By the way, capacity for ANZ Stadium is 82,500 in oval configuration, 83,500 in rectangular configuration.
hawker
Guest
Buddy kicked 4 and had 17 disposals and arguably swung the match Sydney's way the last time McPharlin played on him
Moose
Guest
Thanks ronan and my apologies, misread the article!
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Yep McPharlin is an absolute gun. Another very underrated player.
Cat
Roar Guru
Thanks, I knew there was at least one I had forgotten, shoulda looked it up instead going off memory.
Cat
Roar Guru
If you think that bad Rohan, I know people who have paid $20,000 for a ticket. Thats what happens when demand outstrips supply, price goes up. Most Australians are already taken back at how expansive GF tickets are becoming, if it was moved to smaller venues the price would inflate even higher and faster.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Haha that WC-Fitzroy match was as big as upsets get! Pretty sure I cried that day. I was only 8yo though.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
If there was a Freo-WC grand final at Subiaco, Perth would literally buckle and tip into the ocean.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Average price of a Super Bowl ticket this year was something like $3600. Madness.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Jack gets me.
Balthazar
Guest
well, if Sydney end up playing Freo before the end of the season we will have an answer. My money would be on an injury-free McPharlin because for years now he has had Buddy's measure. Buddy's not getting any younger so I don't know where this miraculous improvement in a 27yr old is coming from. It would be physiologically highly unusual to say the least. What is your evidence for saying that he can't be held by 2 players? Pure hyperbole. I've stayed out of the COLA and academies debate because it is has been done to death but I tend to agree with New York Hawk. Swans supporters give the appearance that no other team produces or grooms good players the way that the Swans do. This is even more tiresome. I reckon history says that the Hawks do it as well, if not better, as do Geelong and since 2010ish Freo hasn't been too shabby either.
FreoFan
Roar Rookie
Don't forget Freo v Hawks too!
Cat
Roar Guru
Says the guy who claimed there was absolutely no way Hawthorn would ever lose to North Melbourne, says the same guy who said Hawthorn will comfortably beat Adelaide by a big margin. You failed to apply sense to those games.
Don Freo
Guest
Mark Duffield and Ken Judge are West Coast people. We're a very content lot...why wouldn't we be?
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Don, I recall Ken Judge and Mark Duffield having quite a lengthy discussion on WA ABC radio about Freo Fans in the build up to the Grand Final last year. I distinctly remember them both commenting about how Freo Fans are "always upset". Something about them feeling hard done by. Something about them living in the shadows of the Eagles since 1995. I even recall someone phoning in during the discussion to complain about the fact Freo had to travel to Geelong for the QF.....and this was after they had won the PF. I'd love to see them get the job done. Hopefully on the last day in September, just preferably not against Sydney.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
I didn't like him before New York Hawk and the jury is still out on his character regardless of his on field attributes. Issues with O'Keefe; interesting car accidents etc. No reasonable person would have ever/or currently doubted his ability.
Brian
Guest
And to think people accuse Hawthorn of taking players from other clubs when Franklin, McPharlin, Kennedy & McGlynn are all from Hawthorn.
Brian
Guest
The MCG has hardly helped Victorian sides on Grand Final Day. In GF between a Victorian and non-Victorian team at the MCG its 3 wins for the Victorian team - 1996, 2007, 2013 8 wins for the non-Victorian - 1992, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2012 A record of 3-8 suggests there is zero advantage of it being played at the G.