The grand final preview will be held next Saturday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground between the Swans and Hawthorn. That’s the only assumption you can make after what happened over the weekend.
Like many who follow the AFL, I had begun climbing aboard the bandwagon which was suggesting the Swans and the Fremantle Dockers were headed towards a late September showdown at the G.
Clearly the form sides of the competition, both appeared only to be getting stronger, and finding true weaknesses in either was becoming a task.
Well that was the thinking up until Saturday. Then… What happened?
A thrashing was predicted for the St Kilda versus Fremantle match. Having won their previous eight by an average of seven goals, the Dockers were certainties (well they looked it), but a 58-point thumping, a battering to their percentage, and some serious questions were the luggage Fremantle took home on Saturday night.
Was this merely a glitch or has the purple machine blown a gasket?
Coach Ross Lyon, a dour personality at the best of times, declared there were no excuses. I’m sure he and their fans wish there were. OK, Aaron Sandilands was missing, but one man does not a team make, and the big guy missed 15 games last year and Freo made the grand final.
The Dockers were beaten all over the park, and what was concerning was not just the scoreboard but the intent and ferocity at the contest. A team renowned for those attributes, maybe the Dockers left them in Perth.
A few hours later, we saw another top-two aspirant, Geelong, cough and splutter their way to a narrow win over a plucky Greater Western Sydney Giants outfit. On Sunday we saw Port end their losing streak, but hardly give anyone massive confidence for the rest of the season, with a three-point win over Melbourne.
Am I missing something? I know they have Indigenous round, and women’s round, was this take pity on your lowly ranked rival round?
Credit to the Saints, Giants and Demons for their performances, but if Geelong, Fremantle and Port are premiership contenders, those results should have been vastly different.
The Cats in particular should have buried the Giants when they raced away to a six-goal lead early in the final quarter. Instead they gave their fans and coach moments of palpitations, and a few reasons for concern.
Some may also say it was simply a glitch for Geelong, and means nothing anyway as they got the four competition points. Plus, thanks to Freo, the Cats sit second on the ladder with a top-two berth theirs to lose. But there needs to be a substantial improvement between now and September.
Still, having peeked ahead at the closing five rounds after the completion of this split round next weekend, the Cats might snatch that top-two spot, along with the Swans.
In their remaining five matches Geelong play Fremantle and Brisbane at home, the unpredictable North and Carlton, and old foe Hawthorn away – albeit still all in Melbourne. For no specific reason I have the Cats winning four of those and finishing second.
I have Sydney winning all of their remaining matches and heading into the finals as hot favourites.
I have the Hawks winning four of their remaining games to take third spot, and for the other top four berth, I have both Fremantle and Port winning three of their next four, before the Dockers snatch fourth in the final match of the regular season at home against Port.
But as Saturday’s Fremantle-Saints game so clearly showed, never think you know how things in football will turn out.
Tune in next week after some more unpredictable results to see which two teams I then think will finish top two.
Cat
Roar Guru
Every team plays every other team at least once thats 17 of 22 games gone, that leaves 5 additional games left. By doubling up against interstate sides thats 4 of 5 games gone leaving only 1 game free. When do Vic teams ever get a home game against an interstate side? How is giving the interstate sides eternal home ground advantage any fairer? Surely if teams meet once a year one team should be the home side in year one and the other in year 2.
Don Freo
Guest
Re-read the post. Hannebery has already been listed before the 'etc'.
Gregor
Guest
Actually Gene this might come close 1.Every Victorian side travels to Perth,Adelaide,Brisbane and Sydney twice a season.Good for their finals needs 2.Every interstate side has six non-Victorian trips per season,so they also play half of the Victorian sides each year in Victoria.The other half next year. 3.Every interstate side plays once at the MCG each season.That's a total of 8. Probably doable. 4.Geelong gets 11 home games,unless they want to sell them to the AFL 5.If a side can get to Tasmania with a direct flight, they should play there once every two seasons.That rules out the Dockers and the Eagles.They already travel more than all the other sides so that's fair 6.Each side plays the additional five games against the sides closest to them at the end of the home-and-away games in the previous season.If you finish on top,you play 2-6,on the bottom,you play 13-17. Any thoughts?
Cat
Roar Guru
Less travel, less 6 day breaks. Keep in mind I never said the Hawks had an easy draw.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Nick is a Geelong supporter. He just has a similar view to a lot of us on Ross Lyon.
New York Hawk
Guest
Come on, Freo had the toughest draw? Where was the easy double-up game for the Hawks? They double-up against Sydney, Freo, Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast this year.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Hawthorn and Geelong are playing below themselves ATM but they are still winning,and thats what good sides do. Its easy to win when your playing like Sydney,but the premiership race aint at the finish line yet. What happened to the Fockers has always happened in football of all grades,they just thought they had the four points before the plane left Perth Airport,and they got a wake up call just as big as Foreman got when Ali sat him on his arse,it will do them good,there heads fit through doorways again now. This race is still anybody's and it wont be over till that last day in September
Cat
Roar Guru
No but we sure do see you crying rivers over it every chance you get. You've yet to ever put a sensible proposal forward that would make travel balanced for all clubs.
Cat
Roar Guru
"actually, GWS probably could have won that match vs Geelong! Gene….I doubt anyone saw STK winning by 58 40+ was paying 151.00 I doubt any roar experts, footy experts or anyone with an IQ north of 60 would have put any serious $$$ on it! what do you do for a living ??? I’ve made plenty in my day but I never ever bet on a result like this because I never consider them possibilities! you should be $$$$$ mate…" What are you dribbling on about?
Cat
Roar Guru
Wouldn't NM have liked that ability to squeeze out a win last year.
Cat
Roar Guru
"so Sydney beating geelong 148-38 was fine, but Fremantle losing to STK 118-60 Is bad???" Never said it was 'fine' I said I'd rather my team gets it backside handed to them by twice as much by a top 2 side than half as much by a wooden spoon contender.
Jason K
Guest
I think the sign of a good team is that they can win. Period. The gist of the article is that Geelong are not that good because they won by not enough points. The assumption here is that they should be handed blowout games? The fact that they gathered themselves up against a surging team to win the match doesn't seem to speak for much, when it really should. The fact is they won, they eked out a win, but they won nonetheless. There need not be any sort of asterix beside the win.
Macca
Guest
So what you are saying is you position is just negative.
Macca
Guest
Dan Hannebery also.
MomentbyMoment
Guest
I think it does. The Victorian clubs are afraid to travel but inter-state teams do it on a fortnightly basis. Their final trip is to the MCG which is the home ground for many Victorian clubs. It is an example of an unequal competition, but you wont hear Eddie complaining about it.
geoff
Guest
Nick you sound like a bitter saints supporter who is pissed that lyon jumped ship. I would say that lyon is possibly the best coach going around. Many factors as to why he hasnt coached a premiership team that were out of his control on gf day. Didnt freo get pumped by the saints last year around this time and make the gf? Didnt they come 3rd and knock the cats off in geelong? Freo are still a strong chance of top 2. They need to 1 more win than both of cats and hawks.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
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john fedec
Guest
actually, GWS probably could have won that match vs Geelong! Gene....I doubt anyone saw STK winning by 58 40+ was paying 151.00 I doubt any roar experts, footy experts or anyone with an IQ north of 60 would have put any serious $$$ on it! what do you do for a living ??? I've made plenty in my day but I never ever bet on a result like this because I never consider them possibilities! you should be $$$$$ mate... anyway some things are 100% clear freo have the best home ground record of any club over the last 27 home games.... playing an away final at PS is going to be tough Sydney would rather play a home final at SCG than ANZ! Geelong's record on the road in 2014 is so bad an interstate trip is essentially fatal hawthorn need to beat Sydney this week, because a trip to Perth in 3 weeks will be harder! port vs collingwood in 2 weeks time..lose and port are essentially making up the numbers north probably the only other team that could win the flag although as always, they'll probably have to do it from 5th/6th and make history!
john fedec
Guest
so Sydney beating geelong 148-38 was fine, but Fremantle losing to STK 118-60 Is bad??? port beat Melbourne with the last kick, GWS could have tied the scores if they finished off better in Q 4 vs geelong! I'm still expecting, predicting, tipping and betting on a Fremantle flag! they'll smash Carlton, geelong, hawthorn,Brisbane and port, win two finals at home , then fluke a grand final win :)
Gregor
Guest
No Victorian side has won,or could win the GF after three interstate trips,because the finals draw doesn't work that way. Does that make the Eagles'premierships superior to that of any other teams? Just because of the greater distance,the shorter turnarounds,the biased fixturing? And,johno, I think you might find that the Eagles travel just as far as the Dockers