They are two of the most dominant performances by a key forward in recent AFL seasons. Both just happened to be produced by a much-maligned former defender – in consecutive weeks, no less.
Essendon youngster Jake Carlisle proved against the Western Bulldogs on the weekend that his 19-mark effort against Collingwood in Round 17 was not an aberration.
It could well have been. Carlisle had labored in the forward line all season and was widely considered very fortunate not to have been dropped.
I was skeptical whether he could again go close to matching his output against Collingwood. Why? Because every season an undecorated footballer plays a match at a level which previously seemed impossible. They utterly dominate a game, drastically exceeding the expectations of not just football followers but also, seemingly, their own teammates and coaches.
Their form on that particular day is so far beyond the norm that it seems unsustainable. It often proves to be just that and they quickly return to being a run-of-the-mill performer.
A former Bombers player makes a good case in point. In 2001, Gary Moorcroft had been in and out of a mighty Essendon lineup as he battled for consistency.
The 173cm forward booted only three goals in his first nine games that season despite spending a lot of his time in attack. Then, in Round 14 against the Western Bulldogs, he played like a diminutive superhero.
Moorcroft slotted six goals before half time, with even champion Bulldogs defender Brad Johnson powerless to halt his astounding momentum.
The exclamation point was added to this display when his sixth goal came from perhaps the most spectacular mark in AFL history.
Moorcroft scaled Johnson’s frame and then flung himself backwards through the air to pluck the ball while almost horizontal.
But after that night he never reached the same altitude, figuratively or literally. He kicked just 21 goals in his following 24 games and, two years later, his AFL career was over.
Carlisle looks unlikely to suffer such a swift descent from grace. Where Moorcroft was significantly undersized and had to try to make up for that with skill and nous, Carlisle is a giant of a man with supreme physical gifts to complement his generous ability.
The 198cm Bomber is just 22 years old. Very few key forwards reach their peak by that age. One man who clearly recognised the upside in his forward play that was not so apparent to the general public was his coach Bomber Thompson.
Thompson has been stubborn in continuing to play Carlisle up forward predominantly this season despite the footballer’s difficulty in adapting to that new position.
Carlisle had been sensational in defence last year, claiming numerous big scalps and staking strong claims for an All-Australian berth.
But Bomber had a hunch. Essendon desperately needed a reliable marking target in the forward half and he believed Carlisle was that man.
The punt did not pay dividends initially. Carlisle could muster just ten goals in his first 14 games this season while switching, on occasion, between attack and defence.
Bomber did not waiver and finally has reaped the rewards for his persistence and faith in Carlisle. The rangy utility was supreme against Collingwood, roaming the expanses of the MCG to haul in 19 marks, amid his 26 touches and four goals.
It was as complete a performance as you are likely to witness from a 198cm player. Yet his display at Etihad Stadium on Sunday was every bit as influential.
Essendon faced a robust challenge from the improving Bulldogs and it was Carlisle who was the clear difference between the sides in a close match.
He slotted eight goals – it could have been double figures had he not given a couple off to team mates – to go with 19 possessions.
Carlisle enhanced his offensive potency with tremendous defensive endeavour, laying seven tackles – but the highlight of his play was, once again, his marking.
He snared ten marks inside 50m, the highest number ever recorded by statistics company Champion Data. Carlisle’s ability to take one-grab marks is truly rare.
Combined with his height it makes him a terrifying proposition for opponents, particularly when Essendon move the ball forward quickly enough to isolate him in a one-on-one contest.
Watching him the past two weeks, he looks capable of becoming the best key forward in the competition. But, before we get too excited about Carlisle’s prospects, we have to see how he copes with the considerable extra defensive pressure he will encounter in the coming rounds.
He now has the attention of the entire competition. Future opponents will be conjuring ways of stopping his run at the ball and double teaming him where possible.
Essendon’s next match is against league leaders Sydney. The Swans have one of the most experienced, canny and efficient defensive units in the AFL.
They will not allow Carlisle the latitude he has gleefully exploited in the past two rounds.
Carlisle is a remarkable talent. Over the next month we will see how he handles the pressure of being a star forward.
Aransan
Guest
Gecko, I think Daniher will be a top forward next year and even better in 2016. Essendon have a reputation for being difficult to trade with, I believe this is because they place a higher value on their talls than other clubs do. Consider a spine of Hurley, Hooker, Watson, Carlisle/Daniher -- how will this team go against a team with an inferior spine but will superior midfielders? This spine is just developing as Hurley and Carlisle are having their first year after swapping positions. To trade for an A-grade midfielder Essendon would have to give up one of the talls in the spine. I don't believe it will be worth it but time will tell, perhaps most clubs are underestimating the value of key position players although what appears to be on offer for Frawley seems to contradict that.
Gecko
Guest
Aransan, agreed that "the development of tall players takes years but midfielders take less time" and that Daniher may become a top forward next year (though more likely in 2016 or 2017). But young up-and-coming midfielders are notorious for being unable to play out a full season. Very unlikely that Merrett could be relied upon to play a good finals series in 2015 or 2016 even if he does develop quickly. Regarding "Zaharakis, Myers and Winderlich just short of that level", Myers and Winderlich are very average midfielders and Zaharakis, if he can't develop a bigger engine, should be sent to half forward or half back and just play a cameo in the midfield. You're still at least one player short of a top midfield. Recruit.
Aransan
Guest
Gecko, the development of tall players takes years but midfielders take less time. I don't believe Essendon will be short of a key forward after Daniher has completed this year, they are perhaps short of a supporting forward but my feeling is that Ambrose will fill that role fairly quickly -- a significant contributor next year and a top player after that. The absence of Watson has actually helped some of the other midfielders to develop and take more responsibility -- Heppell, Zaharakis, Myers, Winderlich, Zac Merrett. Watson, Goddard and Heppell are A grade, I believe Zac will be with Zaharakis, Myers and Winderlich just short of that level. Backmen and forwards are also expected to contribute to the midfield and Hibberd is an A grader who fills that role. Marty Gleeson and Jason Ashby are waiting in the wings. Kommer, Browne and Hams have missed this season due to injury. I believe teams have been too focussed on midfielders and are just now waking up to the importance of tall key position players, Essendon have the strongest spine in the competition and this will become stronger with Daniher's development. Essendons immediate future is very bright and don't be surprised if they play in a preliminary final this year.
Gecko
Guest
Aransan, the 'wait and develop the midfielders yourself' line makes sense if you're aiming for a premiership in 3 or 4 years time. But the bombers' premiership window will probably close after 2016, when Watson and Goddard are past it and Winderlich and Stanton slowing down. You are currently one top midfielder and one key forward away from being a top 4 team. I wouldn't be sitting back hoping one of your young mids develops quickly. The Hawks and Sydney didn't win their premierships by sitting back either. Recruit.
Aransan
Guest
Tom, what can be less than zero?
Aransan
Guest
Daniher is 3cm taller than Carlisle and will become a more solid unit after further pre-seasons. Daniher will be a ruck/forward, Carlisle can play forward, back and ruck. I wouldn't swap Carlisle for anyone, it takes 5 or 6 years to develop players like him and although Daniher is worth his place in the side, we won't start to see what he is really capable of for another year or so yet. Daniher's break out game was against GWS when you could see him perform against another footballer at the same stage of development. Carlisle and Daniher are sufficiently different that they can play together on the forward line and they have other strings to their bows. It is better to develop your own than through trades, if a team needs a key position tall then they had better start preparing now for 5 years time if they haven't done anything before now. Zac Merrett was drafted with the pick Essendon received from the Bulldogs for Crameri, he will develop into an A-grade midfielder.
Gecko
Guest
I think Daniher has a better chance than Carlisle of If developing into a top key forward (because he's 1 cm taller, and probably more agile around the 50m arc. If Daniher does come on, that means the Bombers go back to the problem of too many talls. Sure it'd be nice to keep all their talls for depth and team selection flexibility, but if they want a serious tilt while Watson and Goddard are still in their prime, they may need to trade a tall (Hooker, Carlisle, Daniher or Hurley) for another top midfielder. If the Bulldogs seriously want Carlisle, let them swap young MacRae for him.
Tommo
Roar Rookie
Gene your opinion in matters Essendon-based counts for less and less these days
Aransan
Guest
Many Essendon people believed that Hurley was more of a back man than forward and also that if he was moved back he wouldn't suffer the injuries that he had been accumulating on the forward line. To me the problem then became what to do with Carlisle in 2014 as I didn't believe that Hooker, Hurley and Carlisle could play together on the back line as they were too similar, and also Carlisle had looked very promising when pinch hitting on the forward line. Essendon are correctly believed to be very strong with their talls, and I personally had rated Carlisle ahead of Hooker and Hurley who are very good players themselves. Carlisle was in all-Australian form in the first half of last year and Hooker has been in all-Australian form this year at centre half back. Given that Carlisle was only in his fourth year last year that indicated that he was a tall player of great talent. Could he adjust to playing on the forward line? That was the big question. I thought he was such a talented player that he could. Bomber Thompson has to be congratulated on persisting with him on the forward line despite intense criticism from within and without. I believe that Carlisle has shown enough for Essendon to be confident that they can build a forward line around him, even if he can't replicate his dazzling performances over the last two weeks. I would further add that he had been showing great promise in the couple of weeks before his last two performances. Despite my previous very high opinion of him I am now confident in saying that he is even better than I thought he was and I don't think anyone really knows at this stage just how good he will become.
Aransan
Guest
According to Jake they had a coffee together as they have the same manager. I think Carey's input was limited but important from a psychological point of view.
Moose
Guest
David honeybun had two good games too - lets keep the powder dry on carlisle for now . . .
Mark
Guest
Yes we will
kennoth
Guest
.Geesus his last 2 weeks have been Coleman-ish. Sensational overhead marking like back in the 50s. Yes i remember Coleman going around . Different game now with defence 3 on 1. But if this young fella can get a run at it he can mark anything. And like Coleman he will drag the crowds in to watch. Who said full forwards were finished. This game of ours keeps throwing up gifted athletes. Long may it prosper !
Pumping Dougie
Guest
We'll gladly have him at the Bulldogs. You won't be able to fit him in anymore now that the COLA is being phased out!
MomentbyMoment
Guest
Nup ... Reid is still only 22 and very much valued at the Swans. Took 4 the other day and marking like a champ, plus he swings back when we need him. He will be good but not quite in Jake's class ...
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Fair call. I'd argue Daniher is just speculative at the moment and needs to establish himself. Hawkins is 25 and should be coming into the prime of his career, but looks to have the body of a 29 year old Dermott Brereton. Gunston is doing well but he's only 193cm (a modern day midfielder) and plays more like an opportunist in a very successful side than a key position player. Carlisle was superb most of last year at CHB and then as a swingman forward in some games, so he's already established he's a good player, but he still has to confirm he can be a really good player and in the forward line. Reid has had a few good games this year but has been poor for most of it (when not injured) - he'll probably be at another club soon.
Swampy
Guest
The Bombers actually have two of them. The younger lab pup (otherwise known as Joe Daniher) is also a potential bookend. Tom Hawkins would still be young in my eyes and the Hawks have Gunston as well. I'm not writing off Sam Reid either. In patches he looks like he could be unstoppable. Plenty of young key forwards around.
andy
Guest
Carlisle can play anywhere as a forward or back now he wants to play forward he will no doubt be unstoppable 1on 1 and will let Daniher and and the two pattys get easy goals coz of his presence same with buddy at Sydney
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I wonder how much of an influence Wayne Carey's tutelage has been on Carlisle?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Who has declared Carlisle the AFL's best forward Gene?