In sport, 85-90 per cent of the time, stats tell the true story. But every now and again a stat like Don Bradman’s surfaces, requiring just four runs at the Oval in his final Test to have a career Test batting average of 100.
If betting was around at the time, you could have easily got 100-1 on the Don being bowled by a journeyman leggie like Eric Hollies, who only played 13 Tests to capture 44 wickets at 30.27.
But the Don was by far the biggest scalp of his entire career.
So the Don’s average is 99.94, which is probably an even bigger talking point that if it was 100.
So how do the stats line-up for tomorrow night in the all-Australian Super Rugby semi at Allianz between the Waratahs and the Brumbies? In their two home-and-away games in regulation, the aggregate is Waratahs won 63-36, scoring seven tries to three.
The fairest comparison between the two teams is how they performed in the Australian conference. The Waratahs finished on top with 58 points, the Brumbies second with 45.
Daylight.
And it’s much the same pattern in the eight Australian Conference games both teams played.
The Waratahs scored 270 points, the Brumbies 211.
The Waratahs let in 120 points, the Brumbies 190.
The Waratahs scored 32 tries, the Brumbies 26.
The Waratahs let in 12 tries, the Brumbies 21.
On the overall table, the Waratahs finished first for the first time, the Brumbies fourth.
The Waratahs scored a tournament-high 481 points, the Brumbies 412.
The Waratahs let in 272 points, the fewest in the competition, the Brumbies 378.
The Waratahs led the points difference with plus-209, the Brumbies plus-34.
The Waratahs earned 10 bonus points, again top of the table. the Brumbies five.
So if the stats hold good come Saturday night, the Waratahs are a shoe-in. But we all know it will be a lot closer than that, and a lot will depend on what strategy Brumbies coach Steve Larkham adopts.
We know the Waratahs will stick to ball-in-hand, but Larkham is just as likely to follow suit as he is to kick the cover off the ball.
If Larkham selects the boot, the Waratahs will win by the length of the straight. You don’t give the likes of Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and Adam Ashley-Cooper all that room to move without paying on the scoreboard.
So ball-in-hand must be Larkham’s number one priority, and if that’s the case, Saturday night will showcase the best of Australian rugby entertainment, and have Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie licking his lips in anticipation for the opening round of the Rugby Championship against the All Blacks at ANZ, and the return bout the following week at Eden Park.
But first things first.
Even in the head-to-heads the Waratahs have the advantage over the Brumbies.
The all-Wallaby front row of Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, and Sekope Kepu.
The all international locks of former Springbok Jacques Potgeiter and former Wallaby Kane Douglas, with Wallaby behemoth Will Skelton on the bench
And the Wallaby backrow of Michael Hooper, Stephen Hoiles, and Wycliff Palu – that eight up against six Wallaby Brumbies led by Ben Mowen, Scott Fardy, Sam Carter, Ben Alexander, and Scott Sio.
Both backlines are littered with Wallabies.
The Waratahs will have Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Ron Horne, and Israel Folua – only winger Alofa Alofa has yet to wear gold.
The Brumbies will have Nic White, Matt Toomua, Christian Lealiifano. Tevita Kuridrani, Jesse Mogg, and Wallaby winger-in-waiting Henry Speight, who will be eligible in September.
Only Robbie Coleman has yet to wear gold.
A blockbuster, bring it on. And may the stats win.
Dave
Guest
Weather conditions are now much better than this morning. It hasn't rained for a few hours, and the sun is out and quite warm. I was just at Centennial Park (next to the stadium non Sydney readers) and the grass there was fine and dry. Game on now as the Brumbies wont be able to hide behind negative tactics. Hopefully that means an entertaining spectacle from both sides in front of the largest NSW crowd in many years.
Chris
Guest
Sports buff, there wouldn't be an Australian who hasn't heard that story a thousand times.
colvin
Guest
Just on that Don Bradman story David, you're a bit of a sports buff. Did anyone ask Bradman why he didn't have one last innings in order to get that magical average of 100? Or are you aware of any pressure by the public at the time for Don to go one last time? All he needed was a score of 4 not out.
Terry Kidd
Guest
The first half will be reasonably tight with the Tahs leading slightly at half time. The Brums will be trying the rush defence to close down the Tah backline but this will have backfired with a couple of offside penalties and Beale standing a little deeper. Brums will be on wood warning for slowing the ball at the breakdown. Tahs will score early in 2nd half as they up the ante immediately after half time. Brums will begin to play catch up and as the pressure builds they will give away defensive penalties and eventually lose a player for 10 minutes. Tahs will score twice more and lead by 22 with 10 minutes to go. Cheika will empty his bench and Brums will score a late consolation meaning the Tahs win by 15+.
bennalong
Guest
Yes Cadfael, But the stats tell you the Tahs have turned up on the day more often than the Brums!!!!!
44bottles
Roar Guru
The pains of going in large favourites in a game you know'll be much closer.
Old Bugger
Guest
Aw shucks guys - you can all give each other a hug while you're waiting for a beer before kick-off and if you miss that chance, there's always HT. It will be a bloody cracker game so from the other side of the ditch, good luck because either way, Oz will have a finalist.
Antennae
Guest
So plan B is AAC line break, plan C is some Beale magic, plan D is a Hooper run, Plan E is Foley, F is Palu, G etcc ... There is alot more options in attack than just Falou for the Tahs. Falou wouldn't bring the Rebels to the finals if he played for them.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Take the consolation prize You will win the lineouts. It will be close. How can you say it will be close based on form and the last game played. Was it 39-5. It will be worst than that. I have yet to be wrong. Yeah at least I have never called the Brumbies ch==eats. They have had a great season and with Squeaky playing it would have probably been a brumbies victory, I have enjoyed the way they played and if somehow the Brumbies win I will be whole heartedly behind them in the final..
Bunratty
Guest
:)
Sportym
Guest
I agree its cynical, though I disagree its c.h.e.a.t.i.n.g . That is why we have rules in rugby, to penalise the team that infringes. C.h.e.a.t.i.n.g implies you have an unfair advantage, beyond the rules in place. Brumbies get penalised for thier infringements. May the best team win mate . It will be a cracker!
soapit
Guest
really? brumbies fans not actually from the act?
Jerry
Guest
Nuh uh.
PeterK
Roar Guru
lol the irony. You want to provide an apology stillmatic1? I acknowledged I had the comment wrong and I specifically singled out 2 tah supporters down below as poor ones. So in my reply to Mark Richmond do you not see I clearly acknowledge this so my so called bias does NOT preclude this. Of course YOUR bias against me will not let you be big enough to apologise or will it? 2 of those side you mention made the finals and the other just missed out. The brumbies did not shut the tahs down easily, what a 5 point win and mainly due to poor handling from the tahs more than anything else.
PeterK
Roar Guru
brumbies do .ch.eat. They have a high penalty rate, they have the second most number of yellows, and all of these from memory are for repeat infringements or professional fouls. It is cynical and systematic, it is their game plan. I do not know why the truth should irk you, you are proud that they do whatever they can get away with. Not just the 7 it is every forward everytime they can at a ruck. I do not see it as below the belt. If brumbies do win of course I will support them next week, does not mean I won't accept they are cynical in their approach.
Bako
Guest
Will, your first line combined with your pic is priceless.
Sportym
Guest
PeterK Mate be proud of the tahs, and all the best tomorrow. Though I find it ironic that you have go at the Brumbies supporters when earlier in the threat you have a go at the Brumbies, anticipating they will c.h.e.a.t at the breakdown. Supporting your team, and having hope is one thing, accusing the other of c.h.e.a.t.i.ng. is below the belt stuff. I dont mind people saying the Brumbies will get thrashed, we will see, though accusing them of c.h.e.a.t.i.n.g is total BS . Anyway like i said, good luck tomorrow. And as I posted a week back, if the Tahs win I will support them against the sharks/saders.
Sportym
Guest
And you wonder why we hate Tahs supporters ;) so the Brumbies have c.h.e.a.t.e.d to get this far?? Silly silly comment to make, that would make every 7 in the game a c.h.e.a.t and australia pulling off the biggest c.h.e.a.t effort of all time in 2011 semi RWC. A team would be stupid not to push the boundries to get an advantage if the ref allows it.
warrenexpatinnz
Roar Guru
I'm enjoying watching both 10 and 12 combinations perform very well which gives the Wallabies the luxury of change, IF change is required. Beale has regained his form from 2010/11 and I would agree that he and Foley deserve the starting spots with Beale's accuracy with the boot a plus compared to Lealiifano's. Foley has placed Coopers future on the bench but even that's no guarantee as Tommua has the potential to be an out and out superstar with year or two of high quality internationals under his belt, he is Dan Carter like with the physicality of Brian Lima.
MyGeneration
Roar Guru
That would make you fairly neurotic, I expect, especially if you start off thinking you're perfect.