As the finals of the Super Rugby season start to heat up, we are left with the best team of each conference of 2014: the Waratahs, Crusaders and Sharks.
The ‘almost there’ Brumbies are the fourth team to make the top four, and face arguably the biggest challenge of all.
First of all, let’s look at the first game between two teams of contrasting styles: the Crusaders and the Sharks.
The Crusaders started the season as a mixed bag, the lack of a quality goal kicker costing them a fair bit in the opening rounds.
The development of Nemani Nadolo, improvement and consistency of Colin Slade and the return of All Black stalwarts Dan Carter – in the unfamiliar 12 jersey – Richie McCaw and Kieran Read have seen them regain the top spot in New Zealand after having conceded it to the Chiefs for the last two seasons.
The Sharks have faced some similar problems with injuries to star fly half Patrick Lambie, who is having his first start for the Durban outfit in months. The Sharks started the season in near-perfect fashion, demolishing opposition with the reliable boot of Frans Steyn and the dominant forward pack that has seen few opposition actually rattle them.
Unfortunately, their season was dismantled by the interruption of the June Test series, coming back from the break with key losses to beatable opposition. They do however have reason to be confident, being the only team to have beaten both the Waratahs and the Crusaders this season. This is an amazing feat given the circumstances of the Crusaders game that we all remember.
Coming into the semi, you’d have to say the Crusaders are in better form and are favourites to win at home this time around.
The Sharks have had to endure mighty travel after a near upset to the up-and-down Highlanders. The Sharks will however come in with confidence having already won at this location this season, knowing the Crusaders haven’t played a game in two weeks, potentially slowing down their momentum.
The Crusaders have too much nous in their back row and a backline with more skill and practice in scoring tries. Crusaders by 8.
The second semi-final is the game of the round. It is the first semi final that features two Australian teams since the same two sides met in 2002, which ended in a 51-10 shellacking by the Brumbies.
If you’re thinking that a similar result is likely to ensue this weekend, think again. You don’t need me to remind you that the Waratahs are the leaders of nearly every important offensive and defensive statistic this season, and it hasn’t been by luck.
The perennial under-achievers of Super Rugby, the Waratahs have for the last few years boasted one of the best teams on paper, and have shown glimpses of brilliance, but have never had consistency to make it into the top four.
This year they have tossed all that aside and delivered one of the most complete performances. It helps with 14 of the 15 starting players having played for their national team, but the dramatic improvement of the Phipps-Foley-Beale link and the continuous rise of superstar Israel Folau are the reasons they have dominated this season.
This is not to say the Brumbies don’t have a serious counter. Their backline heavily make up the Wallabies squad and with Sam Carter and Ben Mowen leading one of the best lineouts in the competition, they pose a great threat to what has been identified as the Waratahs biggest weakness.
There is only one match-up which doesn’t have Wallabies against each other, that of Waratah Alofa Alofa and Brumby Robbie Coleman.
I propose the battle will be won in the forwards, seeing which side can turnover more ball, disrupt in the lineout and scrum and dent the backline with hit ups.
Carter and Mowen will dominate lineouts, but the Waratahs should see the likes of Jacques Potgieter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Wycliff Palu and Will Skelton tear through the middle. Waratahs by 12.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Kuruki - The brumbies let it get to them mentally. Finals experience over rated, Tahs were mentally the stronger teamn. Brumbies camped in half could not score and their heads dropped. Tahs easily won the pressure stages.
PeterK
Roar Guru
well BAD LUCK! Crusaders and Tahs won. A win for rugby!
Worlds Biggest
Guest
lets hope so Blinky !
Firstxv
Guest
you mean the beginning being that its the first loss to an Aust. team?
Firstxv
Guest
Theyre both actually discussing how either can beat the Saders.
Chris
Guest
Don't kid yourself. It's a reflection that Jake would rather play the final at home.
Blinky Bill of Bellingen NSW
Guest
My take on Bernie Larkham talking to Jake White (if true) is that it hints at one or both of them appreciating that Jake would rather not face the Tahs in the finals. :)
Chris
Guest
Eh?
chochie
Guest
i want a Waratahs vs Crusaders final...with the Waratahs winning making it hard for Kiwis to digest yet another loss to an Australian Team....this is only the beginning
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
I understand from certain sources close to the action that a certain Mr Larkham has been on the phone to a certain Mr White about the Brumbies tactics tonight - expect the Brumbies to nullify the firepower of the Tahs and steam to victory at the last moment. Remember you read it here... of course if I'm wrong, I'll never admit it.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
I have reserved a small amount of magic water (Mampoer) to toast the Sharks and Brumbies on their way (Brumbies have always been my favourite Aussie team), or to deaden the pain.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
I know I know Old Bugger -intriguing and frustrating. To be fair the Crusaders have actually, traditionally, been slow starters (as 44bottles says, they finish the season better) while the Sharks have a tradition of tanking at the last hurdle. I am hoping a certain battle ship is not only stays afloat but rises to the occasion tonight. If Bizzies on fire, the Sharks will follow... I hope.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
I do :-) but as you say, there is the small matter of Mr Jackson -- hopefully he surprises us all and achieves the potential he is capable of...
Gasparin
Guest
Agreed, Uncle Argyle. I never thought I'd hear these words from my own lips - but I think the Waratahs are up for it and I think they will blow the Brumbies off the paddock. There comes a time when the past becomes history. The All Blacks did it ( with a little help from Craig Joubert) by erasing 24 years of yips and winning the World Cup in 2011. This time, the Tahs will do it and go all the way. And for the first time in my life, because of the magnificent style of rugby they are playing, I'll be hoping they do. The Sharks will not be able to overpower a rampaging Crusaders unit after the travel from Africa. Particularly with their flawed and cynical gameplan. To reward Jake White's tactics with a trophy would be a sad day for lovers of the game. Imagine if he got the Wallaby gig? You'd have fewer in the stadiums than against the Frogs last month.
Blinky Bill of Bellingen NSW
Guest
WB - I'm with you on Tahs & the final lung burning, legs like lead, ability to make quick decisions when knackered, keep the technique accurate.....final 20 minutes. IMO for the Tahs our freshness & home ground getting us home. For the Brumbies it's that they played last week against tough oppo. I don't see their 'finals experience' as all that much of a leg-up TBH. My only real question is can we pick it up from where we left off 2 weeks ago? Get that right and it'll be one hell of a game of Rugby with 40,000 people feeling like they've had a good night out. Now................................GO THE TAHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Firstxv
Guest
Brumbies certainly have the side to win this match and are probably the more all round side. Its the Tahs firepower that gives them the edge and should that be allowed into play, doesnt matter what the Brumbies bring. For me its really whether the Tahs can click into top gear after a comparatively long wait.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Crusaders by 15. A few on here hoping / tipping the occasion to get to the Tahs. They have a hard edge to them this season which I haven't seen for a long time. Does that mean a win, not at all. However I think the last 20 minutes will be key in terms of week off and fresh legs. The Tahs defence has in the main been very solid. The Brums come in with plenty of confidence. They're well capable of pulling it off. It's a toss of the coin. The rain has stopped for the time being so may not be a mud bath. Come on Tahs.
Argyle
Roar Guru
I can see the Tah's getting some ascendancy at scrum time, yet conversely the Brumbies at line out time. The Tahs will have to hide Beale when in defense; the Brumbies don't have that issue. In considering this I would suggest the Tah's will be looking to slow down the Brumbies ball as much as possible to ensure their defensive structures can be set. If the ref allows this I can see NSW dominating. I think it is Jaco Peyper on the whistle tonight and he loves blowing the whistle and imposing himself on the game. If it is a stop start affair I think that will suit NSW, but if there is some flow and quick ball for the Brumbies, or if Peyper identifies infringing the Brumbies could catch NSW out. I ponder how quick the yellow card may be drawn tonight? I think much will come down to discipline and how the ref imposes himself on the game. I hope very little as the code in Australia would relish an entertaining, all Australian semi final. I think I will tip the Tah's by a Bee's Richard. Crusaders in the other.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Crusaders, Brumbies final is what i'm tipping. the Waratahs will let it get to them mentally and the Brumbies have last years finals loss to draw from, i think that experience will get them through the pressure stages of the match. Speight and Toomua will be key. I really can't see the Sharks winning in Christchurch again, the Crusaders were terrible in that mid season match, some of the decision making was head against brickwall stuff and having DC, Read and McCaw back in the mix will ensure they are making good decisions at crucial times. This is the strongest Crusaders lineup they have put out this season. My head says Crusaders, Tahs but my tab money is on Crusaders, Brumbies.
eagleJack
Guest
Yep, the Tahs finished on top of the ladder, 7 points clear of 2nd place, cause they only have a plan A. Surely, if that was the case the other sides would have beaten them regularly? The wet will just make the cynical Brumbies even more cynical. Let's hope the ref isn't shy about producing the yellows as the Brums will be more than happy to give away penalties to force the Tahs to kick for touch. Will be a very interesting game tactically.