Waratahs pave the way for Bledisloe Cup glory

A Waratahs win this weekend will go a long way towards a strong Wallaby performance in the Rugby Championship. It could even lay the platform for an elusive Bledisloe Cup victory.

History shows a strong correlation between Super Rugby and Rugby Championship success, with 13 out of 18 Super Rugby winners since 1996 being from the same country as the Rugby Championship winners that year.

The anomalies?

1998
Crusaders won the first of three consecutive Super Rugby titles, yet the All Blacks finished third in the Tri-Nations, losing all their games to both Australia and South Africa.

This is a genuine anomaly as New Zealand had three teams in the top four that year while winners South Africa’s best team were the third placed Sharks, followed by ninth placed Stormers, 11th placed Bulls and 12th placed Cats.

The Springboks will need another 1998 to win the Rugby Championship this year with a similarly poor performance from their Super Rugby teams.

2000
Crusaders completed the triple-crown, but the All Blacks finished second behind Australia in the Tri-Nations. Hard to claim this was a genuine anomaly though as the Kiwis were only second by two points after securing four bonus points to Australia’s two.

The title was in New Zealand’s bag until Australia snatched it with an 18-19 win against the Springboks in Durban during the last game of the series.

2004
Brumbies win their second title but the Springboks take away the Tri-Nations crown. Again hard to claim this was a genuine anomaly as Australia finished second in the Tri-Nations by a single bonus point.

2007
Bulls win the first of their three titles, but South Africa finished third in the Tri-Nations, winning only one game out of 4. This is another one that can’t be classified as a genuine anomaly as South African officials fielded a “B” team for most of the Tri-Nations in order to preserve their “A” team for the World Cup.

Fortunately this strategy paid off (with the help of some food poisoning) and the Springboks walked away 2007 World Cup champions despite their poor results in the Tri-Nations.

2010: Bulls win their third title, but South Africa again finished third in the Tri-Nations, this time winning only one game out of six. No World Cup excuses this time, 2010 was a genuine anomaly. They had two Super teams in the final yet struggled in the Tri-Nations.

So, in 18 years of Super Rugby there have only been two genuine anomalies – 1998 and 2010 – where the winners’ success hasn’t translated into strong performances by the national team.

A similar correlation exists between Super Rugby and Bledisloe Cup success. If we attribute the Bulls’ three titles to the next best performing Australian on New Zealand side, we have 12 out of 18 Super Rugby winners since 1996 being from the same country as the Bledisloe Cup winners that year.

1998
Crusaders won the Super Rugby title and New Zealand also had the Blues and Highlanders in the finals, but went down 3-0 to Australia in the Bledisloe. This is a genuine anomaly and the only reason I think of to explain the All Blacks’ poor Bledisloe performance is that they had no gas left in the tank after giving it their all in Super Rugby.

1999, 2000 and 2002
Crusaders won their second and third Super Rugby titles in succession, and their fourth in 2002, but the All Blacks were unable to win back the Bledisloe during this time.

To be fair, the Bledisloe was reduced to a two match series during this period and in all the Crusaders’ title-winning years, the Wallabies “held on” rather than “won” the Bledisloe by winning just one of the two-game series. Note: The Wallabies did win two out of two in 2001 when the Brumbies won the Super Rugby title.

2004
Brumbies win their second title, but the Wallabies were unable to secure the Bledisloe. In a reverse of fortunes, the All Blacks hold on to the Bledisloe winning one of their two fixtures against the Wallabies. Note: in 2003 the Blues won the Super Rugby title, propelling the All Blacks to two out of two in the Bledisloe, ending its five year reign in Australia.

2011
Reds win their first title, but the Wallabies fail to follow-up with Bledisloe success. Again, this was a two-game series due to the World Cup that year, and the All Blacks held on rather than won the Bledisloe by winning just one of the two fixtures.

So, remarkably, in the last 18 years of Bledisloe Cup history, there has only been one genuine anomaly – 1998 – where Super Rugby success between Australia and New Zealand hasn’t translated into strong performances at Test Level.