An intriguing and exciting match up awaits us to decide this year’s Super Rugby competition. Already many theories and statistics have been thrown about discussing who will be the eventual champion.
Let me throw in my two cents.
Due to the vagaries of the tournament, our finalists have not played one another this year, further adding to the intrigue of the match-up and robbing us of some sort of form guide. Perhaps not that relevant for predicting a result, but a useful indicator nonetheless.
Travel should not be a factor in this match as the Crusaders have only needed to make the trip from New Zealand. In finishing second, they also had the benefit of a week off.
A fair bit has been made of the Crusaders set piece and that it is stronger than the Waratahs.
I tend to agree with this, however I do expect the Waratahs scrum will be good enough to gain parity.
The lineout however must be a concern for the Waratahs, with theirs being one of the worst statistically and the Crusaders being one of the best. The Crusaders also average 2.4 lineout steals a match, making the lineout an obvious area to attack.
Throwing in another stat, the Crusaders have scored the most tries from first phase play. It’s not too hard to estimate where the Crusaders may target the Waratahs.
In saying that, while the Waratahs have been celebrated for their attacking and attractive play this year, it is their defence which I have found the most impressive.
It has been extremely physical, often knocking their opponents backwards and as evidenced against the Brumbies in their semi-final, it is resilient and hard working.
The Waratahs did however concede a number of penalties in that match. I doubt very much that the Crusaders would pass up the same opportunities as the Brumbies did in the recent semi-final, but I do not think the Waratahs will be that bothered if the Crusaders do tick the board over in threes.
While this obviously helps build momentum and scoreboard pressure, this Waratahs team seems to be in a very comfortable place. They have full confidence in their game plan and systems and given their proven potency on attack, will be near impossible to keep out.
The Crusaders will need to score tries if they want to win this match.
I expect the Crusaders to look for territory and to put the ball into touch as often as possible to minimise the potent counterattacking abilities of the Waratahs. The Crusaders certainly have the ability with Dan Carter and Israel Dagg to execute such a plan but once there, can they crack this Waratahs defence?
One possible area to target may be in behind the line as I cannot remember any teams really testing the Waratahs out there. I would expect to see a few Carter chips over the line and perhaps some inside balls to test this out and try and break their structure down.
I also felt the Waratahs were poor at times in exiting from their 22 against the Brumbies and this is another area the Crusaders may be able to exploit.
The Crusaders own discipline will also need to be addressed, as they too were on the wrong side of the penalty count in their own semi-final against the Sharks.
Gifting the Waratahs easy field position and opportunities would be a mistake.
I have touched on the Waratahs physicality in defence and the same should be applied to the breakdown, where the Crusaders will need to match fire with fire.
I don’t see this is an issue for the tight five but I do wonder if the Crusaders should look to start Jordan Taufua and switch Richie McCaw to openside.
The loose forward unit performed very well against the Sharks on the weekend, but I think Taufua’s inclusion over Matt Todd may be a good move due to the extra physicality he can bring both in defence and with ball in hand when up against the aggressive Waratahs forwards.
Experience is another point that has been raised as a factor. This is in the Crusaders favour, with five members of the current squad having won a Super title in 2008 against the Waratahs and many more having experienced success at international level.
However, it should also be noted that the Waratahs have six current squad members involved in that 2008 final. And with a number of current Wallabies, they should still be up to handling the occasion.
If the game is on the line in the dying stages, that experience will be a crucial advantage. What the Crusaders cannot afford is to allow the Waratahs to get off to a fast start.
The Crusaders’ best chance is to control the pace of the game and keep the Waratahs camped down in their half. If they are forced into playing catch up early on, that would open the game right up and play directly into the Waratahs hands.
I do not think the Crusaders have the arsenal to compete in this manner. But then, who really knows what will transpire?
This match shapes up as one of the best deciders in Super Rugby history. I for one cannot wait.
Based on form, home ground advantage and the strike power the Waratahs possess, I would have to tip them to win this final and secure their maiden Super Rugby title – but only by a nose.
In saying that, if there is one team capable of causing an upset away, it is the Crusaders and as a Kiwi I certainly hope that will be the case.
Either way, a cracking finale it should be.
Digby
Roar Guru
Excellent point. He always seems to make a big play from the bench doesn't he? He could be the ace up the sleeve.
Digby
Roar Guru
A big performance from Beale and I wonder if he will get the starting spot in two weeks?
waikato07
Guest
In, what i'm sure will be, a tight game I am more worried about Will Skelton than Isreal Folau. If one try is to be the difference Skelton is to be feared. Come on Crusaders!
Digby
Roar Guru
Yip, excited about next year but we still need a dominant lock. Plumtree should know some Saffies we can sign ;)
kesmcc
Roar Pro
love the canes too mate. with nonu back next year i dont think anyone will be able to field a backline that strong. hoping that beauden can skip past crudz too, i think he's a better impact player off the bench.
Digby
Roar Guru
2015 is our year Atlas!!!!
Digby
Roar Guru
Thanks mate. I really do hope the mainlanders can get it done. Either way it should be a cracking game.
kesmcc
Roar Pro
great read digger, but hopefully it's the saders by a nose. i particularly like your favoring bender over folau at 15. as great as izzy is i think he still lacks the kicking game and positional play that make ben smith and izzy dagg such amazing players. hell of a finisher though, only a few with that sort of skill in the world.
atlas
Guest
one stat - regardless of outcome of this match - that we can continue to live on (till next season anyway) the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders home and away this year. Hurricanes 2015 ! (well, top 6 maybe) As for this match - Crusaders are not 'New Zealand' or the All Blacks, just a well-performing franchise; can't bring myself to cheer madly for a red and black side, and Waratahs have played plenty of good rugby can't deny that, so I'll go Waratahs by 8-12. But don't bet on it!
Wal
Roar Guru
You have to think Carter is going to test how much Folau's positional play has progressed. However he hasn't been caught out to many times this year. The great strength of Carter is he won't keep trying the same thing if Folau is up to the task and will have a few go to moves in his bag of tricks.
Firstxv
Guest
So who are you picking bricktop...can't quite tell from that one...I'm guessing...hmmm.
Digby
Roar Guru
You got all that from my peice? The Waratahs have been excellent all year, win or lose its been a great season and they can certainly build on this in seasons to come. Going to be a great game.
Digby
Roar Guru
Fantastic mate! Should be a great day out.
Toa
Guest
Absolutely agree with your assessment regarding Folua. If the Sanders can grind away at their set pieces furthermore provide a stubborn defensive line & make first up tackles it will stave Folua of any confidence. Additionally if Carter can provide a kicking game to stretch & make Folua run to an isolated area it will challenge his ability under pressure to either kick for territory or take on the line. However, for all things Folau I’ve got him scoring the winning try to take the headline away from an outstanding forward pack reinforced by stellar performance form Kurtly Beale
Harry Jones
Guest
Exactly McCaw has seen every scenario Carter might turn Folau inside out
Wal
Roar Guru
Yeah taking my young fella,even got him supporting the Cru to his mothers disgust. Not often you get to see players as good a McCaw Carter Read Folau all on the field at once. Might be my last chance to see McCaw and Carter live.
Clark
Guest
New Zealanders have earned every right to be upbeat. The All Blacks are one of the most dominant forces in World Sport, their record shows that.
Digby
Roar Guru
Thanks Wal. Trust you are going?
Bricktop
Guest
Just want to beat this New Zealand team thats all. Sick of NZ this NZ that. The ABs this the ABs that. This is as huge opportunity for the Waratahs to make a change in Australian rugby. I want to see the kiwis suck eggs. Low and behold if Canterbury lose I await all the excuses under the sun. The kiwis are too cocky for my liking.
Wal
Roar Guru
Cheers Digger good article, I tend to agree with you that the Tahs might score 1 more try, But I think Carter might knock over 2 more penalties than Foley, so my guess one point either way on the conversion of said extra try.