If you look back at the on-field history of the VFL and AFL, there has usually been at least one team each season that has virtually been noncompetitive.
In recent years, with the inclusion of the expansion teams the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney Giants, and the horrible form of Melbourne, there has been at least three.
However, 2014 has been a different kettle of fish, with the bottom five at the moment, St Kilda, Melbourne, the Giants, Brisbane and the Bulldogs, who were favoured by many so called experts at the start of the year to be a good chance to fill these positions, all producing some good performances at times.
The battle for the wodden spoon and the number one draft pick is well and truly on, with the Saints red hot favourites a fortnight ago after 11 losses in a row keeping the race wide open with that extraordinary upset thrashing of Fremantle.
The performance and the win over Essendon back in Round 5 have been the highlights for St Kilda, who have a huge mix of first, second and third-year inexperienced players and top end stars in the twilights of great careers. But they’re still playing great footy, especially Nick Reiwoldt.
CATCH UP ON HIGHLIGHTS FROM FREMANTLE’S THRILLING LAST-GASP WIN OVER CARLTON
The Giants have certainly improved from last season and having seen them live for the first time in their previous outing against Geelong, the future is bright. Many of those early round draft picks have played some decent footy now like Devon Smith, Toby Greene, Dylan Shiel, Jon Patton, Lachie Whitfield, Will Hoskin-Elliott and last year’s number one draft pick, Tom Boyd.
Melbourne has been competitive in most games this season and although their style of footy hasn’t been too attractive, they have generally stopped the thrashings of recent years and been hard to score and play against.
If they lose James Frawley to free agency, which is on the cards, and stay second last, they will get pick two and then pick three as well for compensation. That should net them a quality tall and probably the best midfielder in the draft in Christian Petracca.
Coach Paul Roos always said it wasn’t about winning this year. He was adamant they had to improve their percentage and competiveness and that has been achieved. There’s plenty of light at the end of the tunnel.
Brisbane early in the season looked like they were going to have a horrible season and struggle to win games, but there have been plenty of positive signs in recent weeks.
It was seen as all doom and gloom at the start of the year, losing all of those high draft picks from 2010 and 2011 back to their home states. It looked like another rebuild, but all the players that they selected in the draft as replacement picks have shown they are ready made senior players.
James Aish and Lewis Taylor in particular have shone and would both be good chances of winning a very open Rising Star this year.
They have also played most of the season without two of their best players in Daniel Rich and Matthew Leuenberger due to serious injuries, so the Lions and new coach Justin Leppitsch can take plenty out of the season so far.
The Bulldogs can as well. They have pushed most teams in the games they have lost and with better and taller key forwards could have won more than the six so far. They have suffered four defeats under 10 points including two to likely finalists Essendon.
The big plus for the Dogs is their early draft picks of the past couple of years are all starting to play well on a consistent basis.
A great sign was the win over the Gold Coast when Jake Stringer, Jack McCrae, another Rising star prospect, Marcus Bontempelli, Mitch Wallis, Nathan Hrovat and Jason Johannissen were among their best players.
McCrae, in just his second season, is already a very good AFL player and could become elite very soon.
If they stay 14th, they should be in contention for a key position player as their first pick at the draft such as Peter Wright, Sam Durdin or even Hugh Goddard. They certainly need one of those youngsters.
They should also be aiming to snare a key forward from another club. The Giants have three very good ones don’t they? It all depends if the Dogs want to give up that first pick.
The aim for these clubs now, despite being young, is to ensure they don’t fall away during the last month of the season and then of course build on the improvement in 2015.
Although these teams could still finish in the bottom five, they have definetely had better years than Richmond, Carlton and West Coast Eagles, who would all be competing for the biggest disappointment tag.
imonty35
Guest
It will be a long haul for any of the bottom sides wanting to use the draft to re-stock. If you look at GWS and the Suns, even with the best talent with n end of first round draft picks the Suns are showing their star youngsters need around 5 years before they're ready to carry the load week in week out.
Michael huston
Guest
Brisbane look to have the best future. They've hit rock bottom, and it's hardly been a disaster. When the Demons were on the bottom a few years ago, they didn't seem to have any will in them. This Lions side has had everything go against them: players returning to home states, tough fixtures, injuries galore, a bundle of inexperience taking to the field each week. Yet they've pulled together five wins to get themselves off the bottom. Not to mention they've got some great young talent in Rockliff, Hanley, Zorko, Taylor, Aish etc. In my opinion, the Giants look like the worst in my opinion. They play some of the most lacklustre, uninspiring efforts I've ever seen. We'll see if their "talent-laden" midfield group can develop into great players, but contrary to popular belief, I don't see much promise in them at all.
GazzaW
Guest
While West Coast could drop further they are only a couple of good midfielders from being very good Carlton are only couple players shy of being very good too. But cash strapped bottom dwellers tend to stay there for longer than other clubs with more resources who can buy better development staff doctors managers etc.
Suburban boy
Guest
It was interesting that in the Saints unexpected win over Freo I thought the best player on the ground in the first half was Ryhs Stanley, playing as a lead up and marking forward. He took 8 or 9 marks and kicked 3 goals before half time and was the Saints main forward target. His performance made a big difference to both St.kilda as a team and Nick Riewoldt. Suddenly Riewoldt was not "the man". He was no longer the only forward option and the Saints looked so much better with an alternative. At several centre bounces I noticed Riewoldt starting on the wing, presumably to give Stanley some clear space to run into. It also freed Riewoldt up and he ended up gathering 30 possessions and kicking 4 goals. If Stanley can continue to play a similiar role,even if not playing as well, it may extend Riewoldt's career for year or two, ala Richardson who played very well on a wing for the Tiges in his last couple of seasons. ;Also Stanley is a tricky match up . 200 cm tall yet fast - he won the half time grand final sprint in 2009, his first year at the club. Against Freo he was too fast for McPharlin and too athletic for Dawson.
Gecko
Guest
Good point Winston re "not that many teams above them who would come down". West Coast would be the clearest down-slider. Teams that are highly dependent on individuals - like Richmond (Maric and Cotchin), Adelaide (Dangerfield and Jacobs), GWS (Ward and Mumford), Melbourne (Jones) and Gold Coast (Ablett) - could also be down-sliders if their key individuals go down in 2015. 2015 could be a very even competition as the bottom 5 rise, though Essendon could still lose their entire team over the off-season.
Cat
Roar Guru
variety is nice, instead of 5-10 articles on the same thing.
ted
Guest
Agree but height is different to size. Both Roberts and Talia have a fair bit of development to go before they are capable of matching up on the bigger key forwards. Interested in Dalrymple's recent comments regarding the draft. The club has a philosophy of choosing the best player regardless of size. They will not select a key forward unless they are an outstanding prospect despite everyone demanding that they take one with their first round draft pick.
TomC
Roar Guru
As an aside, it's been a good few days for AFL fans on The Roar. Some interesting articles.
Cat
Roar Guru
Depends, if the Saints continue to rely on Riewoldt especially they won't learn much having him around longer, I also honestly beleive its time he passed the torch and let helped the next captain learn before he is gone.
TomC
Roar Guru
Does anyone proof read these things? Honestly... Anyway, great to hear Dan say something positive about the Dogs. All of the bottom few teams have reason to be optimistic, but honestly I feel that the journey from being a bottom team to a top team these days is if anything becoming longer and harder. Great to see Paul Roos extending his stay at the Demons. Hopefully that gives them a bit more continuity. They, like Brisbane and defeinitely St Kilda, need to continue to get the best out of the draft in the next couple of years. GWS probably have the bulk of the players they need to be successful, as do the Dogs to a lesser extent.
Winston
Guest
Problem is there's not that many teams above them who would come down. West Coast and Carlton maybe? Richmond you would expect them to do better next year as they massively underachieved this year. Suns will only go up. Who else? Unfortunately, the bottom 5 may improve, but it'll still be a massive task to climb up if nobody else falls.
Prince Imperial
Guest
Roberts is 196cm so he should be tall enough. Progressing nicely in the VFL as well. Talia is 194cm - in comparison the best CHB of the last decade and 2013 All Australian, Harry Taylor is 193cm. Last year Lake (195cm) won the Norm Smith and Thomson (193cm) and Johnson (195cm) were all All Australian defenders. Roughead (200cm) should be able to take the bigger KPFs. Roberts and Talia will certainly be critical if we are to rise into contention again.
Luke
Guest
I agree, but the longer the stars like Riewoldt, Montagna and Fisher last the better off they will be, and you'd hope Riewoldt & Montagna can retire after 2016 and Fisher will go next year. I think they can afford to lose guys like Jones, Schneider and Dempster not being superstars and having some of their kids take over. But even if they get worse you'd think it would only take them 1-2years to adjust and build on the players who have departed. For Melbourne to have picks 2&3 if Frawley departs would be an absolute disgrace. He was pick 12 I think in 05' or 06' draft and he hasn't proven to be an elite player, he's an OKAY player and has real problems with his game such as his disposal and decision making. But I really don't understand how a man of Frawley profile could possibly constitute a first round pick let alone it being pick 3. However, if I goes I really do believe granting them an end of first round pick is fair. The Dogs are looking good however, their forward line and defence needs a lot of work.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Each of the teams you mentioned should get one or two more wins, maybe even a third as they all play two of the other three in the remaining rounds. Hopefully the Lions can get three and show some positive signs for 2015. They do have some good young players and with a couple of injured stars to return next year they may challenge for 7th or 8th next year. But that is still not enough they have to challenge for a top four berth the year after that and probably need another three or four top quality players to get there. Whilst Melbourne have improved and stopped the bleeding I don't see their current list getting them too far up the ladder. Same for St.Kilda with a large group of veterans to retire in the next two years. GWS Giants are looking OK, though not rising as quickly as the Suns. If they snare O'Keefe next year he will add some much needed experience but they are still two years away from a genuine finals tilt. The Greater Western Melbourne Bulldogs have the best list and best potential to move up the ladder next year and will be strong for quite a few years to come.
Aransan
Guest
I believe Bontempelli will develop into a key forward for the Bulldogs, but that will take another couple of years. Everyone seems to be after established key forwards, perhaps the Bulldogs should be looking more for someone needing another 2 years of development and who is not so obvious to other clubs. It can take 5-6 years for a tall forward to prove themselves, and don't make the mistake of going too tall as 195cm is ideal, the range should be 193-198cm and don't look at anyone over 200cm unless they are indeed exceptional.
ted
Guest
Much better Dan. A nice positive article. Well done. One comment.....when it comes to the bulldogs everyone focuses on their need for a key forward when many (me included) think their need for another key defender to support Roughead is even more critical. They still rely too heavily on Morris whilst Roberts & Talia are a bit under-sized for the key defensive posts.
Cat
Roar Guru
I still think St Kilda are going to get even worse before they get out of the bottom 3. Still have Schneider, Jones, Dempster, Montagna, Riewoldt, Fisher and Hayes in the 30+ age department and these are still the guys winning the few Saints games they do manage to snag.