The Rugby World Cup is only a year away. While all the talk is now on the Bledisloe Cup, should the Aussies be thinking about an even bigger prize?
Currently, there is a rampant All Blacks team well entrenched at the top of the heap, with some of the game’s best players across their squad. However, are they better than four years ago?
Their current team, and their World Cup planning for 2015, contains many of the same faces: Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Dan Carter, Conrad Smith, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Corey Flynn, the Franks brothers, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Ma’a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Israel Dagg and Corey Jane.
Who from that list is better than the 2011 winning World Cup squad? I can only see Whitelock. Now he partners Retallick, which is a dynamic second row, but Brad Thorn was as tough as they come so I doubt there would be much in it.
What of the rest? Owen Franks and Sonny Bill Williams are probably better, and Kaino maybe. The rest are arguably now not as good as in 2011.
The Waratahs defence and offence in the Super Rugby Final showed that McCaw and Read were well outpointed by their opponents Mike Hooper and Wycliff Palu. Carter went off injured, but Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale were already winning that battle.
Only Nemani Nadolo gave the Crusaders any hint of penetration in that match, whereas the Waratahs looked threatening across the park.
The All Blacks are not the Crusaders, and the Waratahs are not the Wallabies, but many of the players will be the same.
The All Blacks have Julian Savea as their Nadolo option, but on Super Rugby form he’s not as threatening as Nadolo.
Aaron Smith may add something new and potentially dangerous, but the All Blacks don’t look as dangerous in attack as in 2011.
Against a quality English team in June, they looked like a side that was just hanging on to their top ranking, even though they had improved by the third Test.
English selection errors and an uncertainty in their game plans made the All Blacks look better than they probably were. The English will learn from those mistakes and will be very hard to beat in the 2015 World Cup.
No team has defended their World Cup title to-date, but that won’t dent All Blacks belief. To win in 2015, however, they will still need to have a number of players as best in their positions, which looks doubtful.
The Wallabies, on the other hand, appear to be on the up-curve. They have a similar feel to the 1990 Wallaby team, before going on to win the 1991 World Cup, with many of the best players by position among their ranks.
Nick Farr-Jones and David Campese – is history repeating? (AAP Images)
Those players virtually appeared from nowhere, except David Campese, Michael Lynagh and Nick Farr-Jones. Others like Phil Kearns, John Eales, Tim Horan, Jason Little, Willy Ofahengaue, Ewen McKenzie et al became overnight sensations. So, can it happen again?
Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Mike Hooper are virtually there already, while Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Kurtley Beale, and James Slipper look imminent. Sam Carter is ready to emerge, and Nathan Charles may surprise.
Palu has to stay on the field, to continue on his upward curve from a high base. Scott Fardy and Scott Higginbotham have the potential.
A Wallabies v England World Cup Final in 2015 is very possible.
If the 2014 Wallabies are at a 1990 level, then sadly we should not expect a Bledisloe result this year. But, will we win the third Test? Will Nathan Charles raise the fist in triumph like Kearns after scoring the winning try in 1990?
kesmcc
Roar Pro
yeah sure thing squirrel, everyone has caught up. thats why the AB's are on the verge of breaking the world record for most consecutive wins. Another team might front up for one game but the all blacks do it consistently and beat every challenger. the wallabies cant even get the wood on the springboks let alone the world champs.
kesmcc
Roar Pro
and what are you basing that on alan?? have you been chatting with all the ball carriers in world rugby and know their feelings on this?? you know what they say about assumptions. but yes i do think dagg is better on defense than folau. he knows his job well. folau is still learning.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Interesting assessment of Dagg as a defender. A quick straw poll of ball-runners would probably pick him as their preferred last man to beat.
wazza perth nz ex pat
Guest
So Folau on the bench then !!!
kes
Guest
too right. folau is class, i'll give him that. but as the whole package for a 15 ben smith is number 1 at the moment. he's got everything. and when izzy dagg is in form he is just as destructive as folau and a better defender with a huge boot.
wazza perth nz ex pat
Guest
At this stage of Folau's development he wouldn't make an All Black starting 15 as a fullback; perhaps as a winger if Dagg and Jane don't get back to into top form asap. .no way would they pick him ahead of Ben Smith. Folau still gets abit befuddled on defence and caught out of position.
Harry Jones
Guest
Can we please please please play this iteration of OZ? Sadly, by the time we play in Perth, this experiment will have either worked or been fixed.
Mike
Guest
"I think the 1991′overnight success’ is the result of three years of Dwyer perfecting the flat line attack at WB level. This includes selection a pack who can hold up the scrum and generally support this play." Yep. We are doing something similar right now, but unfortunately, its not the Wallabies who are doing it.
Cannonballer
Guest
I think most Aussie Roar's only consider ABs. South Africa always give Wallas a different run for their money. Ignore the Boks at your peril.
Mike
Guest
I agree, Read and McCaw played to the best of their ability. :)
Mike
Guest
I think England are going to be very dangerous this RWC
Mike
Guest
And as we all know. the team with the strongest scrum is guaranteed to win the world cup.
AndyS
Guest
Agreed,but on the basis of what you guys have written the Wallabies are completely outclassed in every position so hard to see any AB losses as anything but a choke...? ;)
Harry Jones
Guest
No need! :) Lot of overconfidence on the ROAR this week...
Zero Gain
Guest
Folau a bench player? Yeah, right!
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Comparing hit ups is nonsense. The Waratahs had around two thirds of possession. With the limited possession the Crusaders had, Read's offload led to Todd's try and McCaw's offload led to the other.
Firstxv
Guest
yeah no time to edit it. First test I agree but 'floored'? no. No reason to think Oz are better than England this year and last time they met England won so the ABs can still play poorly this weekend and still win.
Common Sense
Guest
Nonu is a much better player now than 3 years ago.
Fog
Guest
Well, his old coach, Graham Henry, thinks so and who are we to argue
Bazza Allblack Supporter
Roar Rookie
Actually I agree , in reference to the first two games...