Disregarding their passionate fan-base, who we expect to be rabid in their enthusiasm, the Adelaide Crows have many objective believers in their talent.
The doubters, like myself, point to their inconsistency and inability to win the games they should, or those when crunch time is really on.
Losing to West Coast at home one week, beating up on the Lions at the Gabba the next. Smashing GWS but then being defeated by Melbourne at home. Sticking it to Hawthorn, but inept against Sydney.
Their best is very good, and makes people wonder about top four. Their worst, which happens too regularly, is bottom six football.
Their elite talent is headed up by Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Taylor Walker, Daniel Talia and Sam Jacobs.
What a beautifully balanced group of players that is – a ruckman, key forward, key backman, and two midfielders.
Some might throw Brodie Smith, as an All-Australian half-back candidate, into that mix, and Brad Crouch, if he can remain uninjured, will no doubt graduate into that class next year.
The average age of those seven players next season will be 24. It’s a fantastic core group from which to be launching to greater heights than they currently occupy.
The tier below that group is also full of very good footballers.
Scott Thompson and Richard Douglas are veterans that always deliver a high standard. Matthew Jaensch, David Mackay and Matthew Wright have gone to a new level this year, each doing their best work in a different section of the ground.
Up forward, Eddie Betts has been one of the best small forwards in the competition for the best part of a decade, James Podsiadly has provided great value as a marking target, and Josh Jenkins has had a breakout year as a late maturer to suggest he can be a key focal point for several years.
Matthew Jaensch has finally found some continuity and produced his best season by far as a running back, while Luke Brown does the lock-down jobs and is getting better with experience.
The nuts and bolts are all there for this playing group, and we’ve been exposed to a lot of youngsters that can carry them into the future too.
Brenton Sanderson had a fairytale first season at the helm of Adelaide, but the question marks have to be raised if his side is going to continue to deliver inconsistency when their core group contains so much quality.
His continued bleating on Sunday about the Brisbane ‘heat’ and capped rotations certainly won him no fans. It smacked of someone setting up his playing group for an excuse to lose this week.
You generally get what you pay for in this game. If you deserve to play finals, you will.
Despite everything that’s come and gone, the stupendous highs and depressing lows, the next two matches will define their season. The Crows can join in the September fun by winning only one of them.
The first is a home clash against a resurgent Richmond hitting peak form, with a few things against them, and the second is a trip to Tasmania for the ‘Schizophrenic Cup’ against North Melbourne.
If the ‘good’ Adelaide turns up, they’ll win both and press for a home final in the last round. If it’s the bad version, they can look to 2015.
The jury is still out on what track the Crows are on. But their destiny, both in the short and long term, is completely in their own hands.
RJ
Guest
Thompson gets good stats each game but the team gets little benefit from them. Defensively he is too slow in the centre so oposition mids run off him too often. In congested play he lays many tackles often creating another stoppage, but I wouldn"t call that winning the midfield battle. The crows need quick hands and pace from their mids. Just getting boot to ball is no longer acceptable in todays game. The crows actually get centre dominance when Thompson is not involved in the play. The media are big on player stats but efficient ball use is the main KPI and Thompson fails on this one.
Ando
Guest
They were 30 points down at 3/4 time in the first Showdown, and never got closer than 4 goals in the last quarter, hardly in the game "until the final 10 minutes"
Barneythecrab
Guest
For some reason billy no one in the media rates him. I have no idea why not. Excellent leader
Billy
Guest
Why has no body has even mentioned our captain has been out all season and will be back for finals assuming we make them, these discipline errors and turnovers everybody talks about will be significantly decreased in a few weeks time. And Cameron I would have thought you would at least mention VB
Darren
Guest
I've seen them live 4 times this year - though a Carlton supporter. There defence has been exposed badly. Thalia is the only key position player and the others have been beaten badly. The midfield is very competitive for the contested ball but lack polish. Dangerfield's is a classic example. Incredible ability to win the ball but not a good decision maker and an ordinary kick in general play. Lastly they do not defend the centre corridor well. In summary, they have to win contested ball well as they don't have the defence to win enough turnovers and the midfield skill to outscore based on rebound
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Clearly Tex is the lynchpin in this team. His rise/return has coincided with the Crows success even if he hasn't always kicked the goals. I like the Crows because they can be really dangerous. In a few years they will be a strong contender. This year, if they make finals they will be first out if they make it. Finals football is a whole different kettle of fish.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm saying the nucleus is there with those key players who should all be playing 5-8 years of their best football together, and all areas of the ground are covered. And enough youth has been exposed to grow with those players. I think the future is bright, but we can only say that for so long before we demand consistent results.
Barneythecrab
Guest
Personally i don't think the crows are underachieving or frustrating and are playing to their immediate standard. Unfortunately they are stuck with the expectations of making it big time in the finals because of 2012 - which they had an easy draw and is reminiscent of Ports luck this year of playing the top teams when key players were injured. They also had Rutten, Riley, Tippet and Doughty in that line up - experienced high quality players (minus tippet). You can't say that 'the players are now at the average age of 24 and so should be a dominating/ premiership threat. If you actually have a closer look at the constant 22 there is generally 8-9 players with less than 50 games experience. That is almost half a team that has not played a large amount of football together and will take time to adapt. However, game time and development can be seen through Jaensch, Brown, Martin and Cameron getting game time together. So i know there are experienced, high game players in the team Thompson, Rutten, Pods, Betts and douglas. 2 of them, Pods and Betts, are new to the team and are without a doubt developing their understanding of the game plan and their game day duties. Rutten is at the very end of his career and cannot be called upon to be a game changer except 1 on 1 with Cloke or any other slow big forward. Thompson is having a great year and not more could be asked of him, but at 32 is struggling with injury. Douglas is a gem and probably one of the most underrated players in the AFL. Sloane and Dangerfield are sitting on the 100 game mark so there is tonnes of development to come. Im not making an excuse for the Crows as i agree, they are erratic. What I'm saying is that the crows are playing a level of football that represents where the sides development is. For those that don't think the side has depth, only time will tell. But visiting the reserves team many times i can see a wealth of depth and skill and see the crows real chance of success 2 or so years from now. Give them time and stop expecting finals success. Below is a list a games played by regular players not spoken of above who have played regularly this year. Can add names if anyone would like. 81,76,73,64,45, 43, 37, 32, 25, 22, 19, 18, 13
Axle an the guru
Guest
Adelaide are a dissapointment to themselves. I agree with Don, i think they are very capable of beating any side when they are on song. Rad also has some good points,and Barney will be so over the moon if they make it. I expect them to play finals football this year,and i could see them getting as far as a prelim but thats it,to get any further for a 5/8 side is just to bigger ask. I would back them in a home final against all but Hawthorn. If they dont make the finals this year then i think that will put a bit of pressure on Sanderson to get in the finals next year. Adelaide are to good not to be playing finals footy this year or next,and if they miss out next year then Sanderson needs to be looked at.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some good points there Rad, especially about Bailey. I think Jaensch has fitted in nicely this year though, and Brodie Martin is limited, but is offering something. Looks half a step off AFL level to me. There's definitely enough there in the right age bracket to ensure that wherever they end up this year should form a base to rise from.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Obviously not every single one of their performances is going to fit the label of a flat-track bully, but I think there have been enough of them over the last couple of years for that reputation to follow them. It's up to them to shake it.
Barneythecrab
Guest
I don't know if you would put them down as flat-track bullies they beat collingwood at the MCG, Port in adelaide, gold coast at metric on when they were in the top 8 and playing well, north at home, very close to beating hawthorn and in both games against geelong and port at their best until the final 10 mins. So i don't think they deserve that rep.
Barneythecrab
Guest
He collects the majority of his possessions under extreme duress and has the job of getting the ball out whether that be a handball to outside player or boot forwards. So its probably the main reason that his efficiency can be down. show me a player that collects the majority of their possessions under the same pressure and has a very high efficiency rate.(other than Ablett)
Gregor
Guest
The "schizophrenic cup" in Tassie...hmmmm Which Adelaide and which North Melbourne? It could be ten goals either way
Radelaide
Guest
The Crows should be better than they are, they have a lot of players at the right age and experience level and some decent youngsters (Talia, Crouch and a jet in Smith), they have filled the small forward gap beautifully with Betts and their big man department is starting to fire. But I think the 2 problems they have is the players picked up during the Neil Craig era were all about running power and not about talent, guys like Van Berlo (before the injury), McKay, Jaensch, Martin etc have had 6 or 7 years now and don't show any signs of being able to get their team across the line if the usual suspects are not firing up. Maybe they need Robert Shaw back as a recruitment man after all he delivered McLeod, Edwards, Goodwin, Johnson, Caven and Ellen which always puzzled me as to why Crow fans disliked him so much. The other problem I think is the coach isn't much of a match day tactician (when they lose he doesn't seem to have any ideas at pressers) and maybe the loss of Bailey in the coaches box hurts more than they will admit after all he was in the Port coaches box during their strong years as well as Clarkson.
Cameron Rose
Expert
There is a little bit of hope Don, but is it a fool's hope... I can see any of the bottom four teams winning a final, but not getting past the second week. There's a gap in quality there I think.
vocans
Guest
Good point Freo and I like Shaw but he's got it all ahead of him to prove whereas Taylor has done it to a t. I'm hoping injuries are behind him. Nevertheless, big mobile forwards need quick backs to beat them. Especially the way the game's going. In all parts of the game, closing speed is of the essence. You got Pav so think you're lucky. Signed, Croweater.
vocans
Guest
I think the failure to properly adjudicate the shove within 5m rule means that it is too easy to shove a player out well before the ball reaches the required zone. So, both players in the contest wrestle in case they get the shove while they are positioning towards the incoming ball. This is one of the reasons we aren't seeing the marks we used to. A mark in the forward 30 should be a goal, but so often the forwards don't go for it, and are content to try to knock it to advantage. Crumbers are supposed to be able to read the fall of the ball from the contest, so why not go for the mark and let the defender knock it if he can? The crumbers can do what they're good at. That includes getting boundary line side of the contest in case the defender gets a spoil in. They could make it within 10m but I don't want to encourage the wrestling over the marking attempts.
Don Freo
Guest
Vocans, take a look at the 2 WA teams' lists and look for a trade for Shaw. We'd both love him back here. He has a savvy and skills that don't require so much pace (an over rated commodity). Harry Taylor is not fast...he can play footy though.
Don Freo
Guest
Put Richmond in purple, Cam, and everything is wonderfully rose-coloured. Hmmm! You have reason for hope. As for the Crows, they have been really unbalanced by continual absence of one or 2 ...or 4...key players. The problem with that is that processes and plans take a while to gel when they are all on the park again (c.f. Freo in their 2 crook weeks recently and their return to power last week after returning players begin to work together again.) I know everyone has injury but that point is not to excuse Adelaide, it is to suggest that, as balance returns and familiarity with each other returns, teamwork improves exponentially. The potential could be about to stamp itself on the finals. I think Adelaide, NM and West Coast could beat any side on any given day in the finals and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those erratic sides in the bottom 4 go 2 or 3 weeks into the finals.