Has Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie made an inspired decision to drop fly-half Bernard Foley to the bench and replace him with Kurtley Beale for the Bledisloe Cup opener at ANZ on Saturday night?
Or is he playing another form of Russian roulette?
There are four questions to be answered.
Inside backs Foley, Beale, and Adam Ashley-Cooper were instrumental in the Waratahs capturing their first Super Rugby title in 19 years.
Their combination, vision, and flair were there for all to see.
But McKenzie has split them up with Beale, Matt Toomua, and Ashley-Cooper for Saturday. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Russian roulette.
Secondly, with international rugby always likely to be a penalty shootout, why drop one of the best goal-kickers in the business, and by far the highest points-scorer in Super Rugby 2014, with no replacement of similar quality?
In the selected side for Saturday, Nic White will take the shorter shots for goal, Beale the longer.
But both would willingly admit that they are not in the Foley class.
Foley topped the Super Rugby with 257 points, that included 45 conversions, 44 penalties, and seven tries.
Next best was Hurricane Beauden Barrett with 209.
Russian roulette.
And thirdly, what of team morale? If you asked any of the current Wallaby squad if was Foley in danger of being dropped, they would look at you as though a straitjacket was in order.
Russian roulette.
And fourthly, where has Ewen McKenzie come from with the Foley-Beale selection?
It’s quite obvious the coach has Toomua firmly cemented in his thinking as the Wallaby 12.
But McKenzie couldn’t possibly overlook the fact Beale, as Waratah 12, played superbly in both the semi-final win over the Brumbies where Toomua was 10, and again in the final against the Crusaders.
Simply put, Beale had to be in the starting lineup.
So rather than bench Toomua, which was the obvious selection, McKenzie has moved Beale inside one spot making Foley the scapegoat, despite the fact he’s in the best form of his career.
Russian roulette.
Four questions asked, four Russian roulette answers.
Saturday night will be the judge, and jury.
bennalong
Guest
Where have you been this season Silver? Beale has been electric and both Horne and McCabe have shown career best form which has surprised former knockers of them both!
Al
Guest
To claim that Foley doesn't have the full passing and kicking game is a preposterous claim. His game this year has been monumental in the Waratahs ability to win, as it was in the French tests. As a long time Tah fan I am glad Beale hasn't been
The V Man
Guest
Spoken like a frustrated supporter of a team that always promises everything but never delivers! Do some research and you will see the All Blacks are arguably the most consistent team in the history of sport. I would say 'mighty' covers it pretty well. As hard is that is for you to swallow..........
james
Guest
where is jay ayoub?
TahDan
Roar Guru
Passing mate. Beale's pass is longer and flatter and more accurate than either Foley's or Toomua's.
TahDan
Roar Guru
Foley is more of a James Maloney style play-maker than a Carter or an Andrew Johns; great short passing game and good footwork and running game, but doesn't quite have the full bag of tricks when it comes to kicking and passing. Also, you cite that Beale is performing so well because he's " ALONGSIDE FOLEY". Has it occurred to you that the reverse is also true? Last year the Tahs were pretty off the pace with Foley at 10 and didn't exactly set the comp on fire, but this year with the two together it's been a different story hasn't it? So no, it's not a "bloody tragedy" - it's a tactical decision and nothing more.
Dan
Guest
6-0 against France. Pretty convincing.
Dan
Guest
What a load of garbage Jimbo. We know we get outplayed. In fact, many times we get outplayed. The stats on many close games indicate this. The only stat in our favour is the final scoreline. Please don't bring this garbage about Aussie cricket. The majority of us do not call the All Blacks the "Mighty All Blacks". Point your finger at the various media outlets out there for use of the word "Mighty". The All Blacks for 2 reasons, they get outplayed by a better team and the law of averages suggest at some point they will lose.
Dan
Guest
TahDan please read carefully before making a silly comment.
bennalong
Guest
You're being uncharacteristically illogical Mike. You can't know how good the incumbent team was until it plays the AB's and the Boks. I agree with AAC's forced inclusion but the same logic forces you to keep the 10 who took the Tahs to a grand final win with a conversion on full time to win! Beale may have learned how to play 10 from playing next to Foley as he said himself, but leaving Foley to start removes the risk that saw Beale's talents totally constrained in the 10 position We can win this with Beale at 10, but why take a gamblewhen there's a cool head available?
bennalong
Guest
So just what sort of a player is Foley TahDan? From across the ditch we have former AllBlacks saying in Foley we had a general for the first time! I think Beale is great but not at 10. It is no coincidence that Beale is performing so well ALONGSIDE FOLEY. Beale has had many chances at 10 in the past. He's playing better with the extra space at the Tahs. Foley is "new" with only two years at the Tahs as 10. Give him his halves pairing with Phipps,and see how he shows his cool head. The kid hasn't put a foot wrong! It's a bloody tragedy!
Zero Gain
Guest
Toomua world class? Hooper? Not yet mate, maybe later.
Buk
Guest
Good article to stir up debate David; with the russian roulette theme, I was reminded of what Deans did with JOC at 10, but in that case, I don't think JOC had any Super 15 form as first receiver, whereas Beale has, even if he has not had the 10 on his back. To be honest, whoever is Australian coach is almost always in a russian roulette situation, because you are so often playing against SA and NZ; minimal margin for error against 1 and 2 in the world
kesmcc
Roar Pro
7 on the trot when they haven't beaten a team in the top 4 isn't actually that great. and who was their last loss to?? England, who sit at number 4. good against lesser teams but i dont think they're good enough to knock off a top team yet.
Chinmay
Guest
Toomua is as deserving of a starting berth as Beale. I would have started Foley at 10, Toomua at 12 and kept Beale on the bench...
mikeylives
Guest
Most people think Toomua is indespensible at 12. IMO he is a world class 12. I would rate Folau, Toomua and Hooper as our 3 world class players. First time in a long time we could claim to have more than 1. Foley is cold as ice and is unlucky not to start (I think he should). But it's not as if Beale is out of form. I'll be there on Saturday - screaming my lungs out. Hope the crowd really gets loud and behind the boys. GO WALLABIES !!
44bottles
Roar Guru
Why does everyone seem to dislike Toomua so much. Great defence. 7 Tries scored playing from first 5 is impressive, so he's not a bad attacker. Consistent player. Is it because he's not *razzle-dazzle sparkles*?
Silver Sovereign
Guest
I cant believe the risks being taken with this team in such an important test. And not rewarding the backline which did such a good job on the recent European tour. White, foley, cummins, toomua, kuridrani, Ashley cooper, folau was doing fine as it was and building great combinations. Cummins is out so all they needed was a winger. But these selections are puzzling. Unreliable and bad defence Beale over foley, Ashley I never pass cooper back in the centres and two very bland non creative players in Horne and McCabe. I can't believe the positivity here for those last two particularly. They are poor mans stifling mortlocks at best. No footwork, no passing, sure to get smashed by the all blacks. I though with deans gone these sort of poor selections were a thing of the past
Chris
Roar Rookie
1 Beale played as much if not more 10 than Foley did for the waratahs, he just had 12 on his back. 2 Toomua is a far better player than Foley, he just didn't play for Lord's beloved Tahs. 3 The waratahs won because their forwards gave the backs a great platform. They had quick ball delivered on the front foot. If the wallaby forwards can do the same we are on the way to a great game of footy if not and the ABs forwards get on top and start running at 10 be thankful that Toomua can defend in that slot better than any inside back I've ever seen. 4 As for goal kicking that is the only spot I see Foley to have an advantage, time will tell how good the rest are.
Huh?
Guest
I - like many others - worry about the fragility of Beale at 10. I like the backline we had, even if Kuridrani has a way to go before he settles. I have no problem however with Link giving Beale a red hot go. No problem at all with AAC at 13.