The Rugby Championship Week 1: The big questions

The Expert Tipping Panel was a big hit during the Super Rugby season, except perhaps for an unnamed Brisbane-based analytical colleague, who didn’t have much fun at all.

Nevertheless, The Roar was keen to bring back the Friday banter for The Rugby Championship in 2014, and I’ve found a couple of willing allies.

Starting today, each Friday during The Rugby Championship I’ll be joined by Roar regulars  Biltongbek and Diggercane, where we’ll each pose and answer the pressing questions of the week, as well as offering up our tips for the round.

So let’s get straight into it, and I’ll kick us off…

Brett McKay asks: Do Australian and New Zealand rugby fans put too much emphasis on the Bledisloe Cup, at the expense of the broader Rugby Championship competition?
I’m sure we Australians do. To the point where I’ve read very little about South Africa this week and nothing at all about Argentina. Los Pumas’ team listing on Sunday morning will be the first point of discovery about Argentina for me this season. Further, and completely unintentionally, but we’ll even gloss over Argentina in this chat today.

And it’s strange the way we let our tunnel-vision take over in times like these. Next year will just be all about ‘building for the Wold Cup’, and so it is that for Australian rugby we’re not just about to start another campaign of The Rugby Championship. Our sole focus again is that battle to regain the Bledisloe Cup.

It’s almost unhealthy that Australian rugby uses New Zealand as the yardstick, yet there’s no way out of the cycle we’ve created for ourselves, not when we start the International season with twin Bledisloe Tests every year.

Heck, the previous Wallabies coach essentially lost his job because of his Bledisloe record, and at a time when New Zealand beats everyone, not just Australia. But here we go again…

Biltong

When looking at the number of posts and articles on The Roar, it does seem that Australian supporters do tend to take the Bledisloe Cup very seriously. From an outsider’s point of view, it does seem that New Zealand and Australia do have a very fierce rivalry when it comes to sport.

From a South African perspective, it tends to leave us feeling unimportant while the “real business” is played for. Could it just be that Australians in general are more insular and less concerned with something that is not relevant to them at a specific point in time?

It is also true that Australia does not have the rivalry South Africa and New Zealand traditionally had, so their focus naturally turns to their own rivalry.

Digger

Yes and No. From a New Zealand perspective, absolutely not. Kiwis want to see the Freedom Cup and Rugby Championship locked away in the trophy cabinet just as much as the Bledisloe annually. Well, at least this Kiwi does.

As important as the Bledisloe is, the Springboks are our major rivals and we will never lose sight of that, nor keeping our unbeaten record against the Pumas intact.

However, I would hazard a guess that many Australian rugby fans’ focus in recent times is on their Bledisloe Cup results, and I imagine that not having held the Cup for over a decade drives that obsession even further.

In short, I feel many Australian fans would be quite content at holding the Bledisloe regardless of whether they win the Rugby Championship or not, so yes I do feel that Australian fans place too much emphasis on the Bledisloe or rather lose focus on the broader Rugby Championship as a result.

Diggercane asks: How important is it for both the Wallabies and Springboks to secure victories over the All Blacks in this Rugby Championship with a view to the World Cup in 2015?
Very important, I’d suggest. Neither team has been able to beat the All Blacks since 2011. If the All Blacks again run through the Rugby Championship unbeaten then this has to create self-doubt and pressure both within the squads and coaching boxes. Plans, selections will all be called into question not to mention the scrutiny of the media and fans alike.

Likewise, numerous Kiwis have suggested the All Blacks need a loss or two heading into next year’s World Cup. Nonsense I say.

While I understand the theory behind this sentiment, the core group of experienced players likely for the World Cup along with the current coaching team do not need the ‘losing’ experience to keep improving and stay motivated.

Australia and South Africa have far more to gain from victories this year than the All Blacks do from losing. We must keep the foot on the throat.

Biltong

I would think it is vital for both teams, not only from a confidence point of view, but rather to find what works and what will beat them.

Meyer needs to find a balance between attack while having the defensive structures in place to react when New Zealand counters, something they failed to do at Ellis Park last year.

Meyer will still believe in his structures, but execution and patience will be key to reduce the number of errors on attack, and without the proper structure of how to defend counter attacks will be necessary ahead of the World Cup.

It seems Ewen McKenzie is going for a higher risk plan by selecting Beale; maybe it is just an experiment, but they too will need to find balance. I think the biggest challenge for McKenzie is to find a pack that can stand up and a backrow that is balanced, and without those components in place this year, McKenzie will be running out of time for the Rugby World Cup.

Brett

Massively important, no question. And it’s a double challenge, because not only do Australian and South Africa have to start beating New Zealand, but they have to start beating New Zealand away from home. Obviously, come Rugby World Cup time, everyone bar the hosts are away, but it’s still a factor to overcome, being used to – or at least recently experienced – in beating a team away from your own patch.

Rugby, like most sports, is a game that’s a hell of a lot easier to play when you’re confident; not just about your own game as a team and even about the individuals within, but also having the confidence that you have the ability and personnel to beat a certain opposition.

And there may be no better time to start building confidence about playing, and ideally beating New Zealand. It’s time to strike while there are a few question marks around.

Biltongbek asks: It is likely that Heyneke Meyer will select Ruan Pienaar and Morne Steyn at the half back pairing, considering that South Africa does play a more direct route than New Zealand and Australia. Should it be seen as a negative or positive, and how much?
I am almost certain Meyer will select Pienaar and Morne Steyn, without Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez as leaders and two of the most experienced players, and with Damian de Allende likely to start at 13 I can’t see Meyer being prepared to risk Handre Pollard.

Meyer during the week suggested that the Springboks would need to adapt and start relying less on brawn to break the defensive lines, which is good news. But with Morne Steyn reluctant to attack from standing flat, and showing against Wales that he is indecisive in taking on the line, he will merely serve the role of controlling territory and get the ball wide.

It does make him more predictable as he isn’t going to surprise anyone, which makes the job of Jean de Villiers tougher as defenders can mark him. Hopefully Meyer will use Willie le Roux more in attack, and swap him and Steyn around when chances are on.

Digger

Huge negative. The South Africans direct route as taken them to No.2 in the world rankings and deservedly so. However, if they wish to take the next step and claim first place along with holding off what I expect to be a resurgent Wallaby outfit, change is required and it is in their halves where this needs to take place.

When you consider that the pairing of Steyn and Fourie de Preez was unable to see their team home against the All Blacks for the last two seasons it is difficult to imagine what Pienaar and Steyn can possibly offer considering du Preez is widely regarded as the ‘Boks best, including myself.

In order to complement their fearsome forward unit and newfound speed and creativity in the backs a first five that can hold and engage the line offensively while able to recognise opportunities himself must be acquired and Steyn has shown he is not that man.

If Meyer continues with this conservative selection, I believe it will be more of the same this Championship for the Springboks.

Brett

It kind of feels like Meyer’s hand is being forced into picking a few older heads, with the likes of Matfield and du Preez being unavailable, as Biltong mentioned above. If we were 2½ years out from the Rugby World Cup, instead of just 15 months, then perhaps he might have been inclined to invest a bit of time in building a game around some of these exciting young backs emerging in South Africa now.

So it’s probably a negative, but the counter-argument will be about being pragmatic. And being adventurous around Rugby World Cup planning is a bit of a no-no, it seems.

The risk with pragmatism, of course, is that if Meyer feels his only way forward heading into the Rugby World Cup is to stick with the conservative game plan, then what does he do if a bus hits Pienaar and Morne Steyn sometime in the next 15 months? Then he has to throw his planning out the window and start again with a halves pairing anyway. So in trying to play it safe, he might actually paint himself even further into a corner with his contingencies.

So then, the tips for TRC Round 1

Brett

#AUSvNZL – There’s not a whole lot of rationality about this, but I think the Wallabies are a proper chance this weekend. McKenzie’s tweaks, as surprising as some of them were, might just be crazy enough to work. I think there’s some question marks about the All Blacks’ scrum without Tony Woodcock, and so why not? Wallabies by 5.

#RSAvARG – There’s even less rationality about this one, but fortunately, not much is needed. Always a tough start for the Pumas, trying to hit the ground running. ‘Boks by plenty.

Digger

#AUSvNZL – Richie McCaw waiting until the last minute suffering through the Waratah celebrations from the Super Final two weeks ago indicates to me that he will be hungry and highly motivated and I believe that will rub off on the entire squad as he returns with a greater arsenal at his disposal. All Blacks by 12.

#RSAvARG – The ‘Boks will be too strong for the Pumas at home. I am expecting a 30 plus point margin to South Africa.

Biltong

#AUSvNZL – I was very surprised to see Kurt Beale at 10. Matt Toomua and Adam Ashley-Cooper is a very solid midfield combination, but if Beale plays too much of a razzle-dazzle game I can see this turn very sour indeed. I think the breakdown battle will determine the outcome, it is a tough call to make, I would love Australia to win as they will halt the All Black run for 18 victories, but my head say New Zealand by a few.

#RSAvARG – Argentina struggles first up, so if all goes to plan, South Africa will want a solid victory and score a four-try bonus point, if they don’t, it will be a fail. Springboks by more than 14.