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A slightly better weekend of tipping for Round 18, the first full weekend back. Certainly, the Cheetahs brought us all undone, while we also had mixed results with closely matched derbies in all three countries.
Spiro maintained his one-point breakaway on Biltong, and so all eyes be on these two in our final week of tipping, to see if the peloton catches them or not.
Yes, this is our final week of tipping for Super Rugby this season (that cheering you can hear may or may not be members of the tipping panel), and while our tipping hasn’t quite matched the dramatic play on-field, it’s been a useful conversation starter each Friday going into a new round.
So let me offer my sincere thanks to all our Experts for their continued participation throughout the year, and for providing your insight on each round every week.
And thanks also to our guest tipsters along the way: Sky Sport commentator Scotty Stevenson, The Roar regulars Diggercane and El Gamba (the perfect round show-offs they were), and my ABC Grandstand Digital colleagues last week, Andrew Logan and Al Crombie.
Paddy and I have the honour for the final round, after snaring five from eight last week.
But to finish the tipping season, I thought we’d bring in the proper big gun, a man whose insight we’ll be hearing a lot over the remaining months of the Australian rugby season.
For the last round of the season, we’re thrilled and honoured to welcome the voice of Australian rugby himself, Channel Ten rugby commentator Gordon Bray to the tipping panel for the last hurrah.
You will of course see Gordon front and centre for Channel Ten throughout the Bledisloe Cup and The Rugby Championship this year, the only place to see the Wallabies live and free.
Gordon Bray
Tips: Blues, Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs, Cheetahs and Stormers.
Explain yourself: The Blues have shown impressive spirit at home this season and despite the loss of a couple of key players, have plenty to play for, while the Chiefs form is inconsistent away.
Western Force coach Michael Foley and skipper Matt Hodgson have forged a terrific culture in Perth, but this looks a step too far against a Brumbies outfit that has the talent to go all the way.
The Bulls lost their way at the back end but on home turf will look to finish on a high. Rebels need to start strongly and then sustain their intensity to stay in touch if they are to spring an upset.
The Crusaders will muscle up for the South Island derby and I cannot look past them at home. It’s a tough ask for the Highlanders after last week’s hiding by the Waratahs. It’s also a difficult match for the Waratahs, simply because it’s the Reds who find another leg in these fixtures, especially at Suncorp. Reds will lift big time but Waratahs still have the firepower to prevail.
Finally the Cheetahs played to their potential last week against the Sharks. The old mojo was back. Lions were good enough against the Rebels in Round 17. Both teams are playing for local derby bragging rights.
Finally, the Cape Town boys can beat any side on their day and the belated winning run of rhythm and confidence threatens to torpedo the Sharks. A war of attrition this one but Stormers have found new heart.
Paddy Effeney
Tips: Blues, Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs (P/P), Cheetahs and Stormers.
Explain yourself: It’s the last round of Super Rugby, which makes me very sad. But it’s also one week until finals, which makes me very happy.
The opening game of the round is also the hardest to pick. Blues or Chiefs… Chiefs or Blues… I’m going with the Chiefs, but in a close one.
The Brumbies have an influx of talent coming back into their side, so after a lengthy discussion with Mr McKay about my mental wellbeing after I initially picked the Force (albeit on Wednesday), I’ve gone with them to make the finals with a win at home.
Brett’s note: damn my honesty…
The Crusaders will want momentum heading into the final, as will the Waratahs, so I’m backing those two teams to get it done. I’m liking the Stormers to continue their four-game winning streak, and the Cheetahs, no, the Lions. No, the Cheetahs. Yeah, the Cheetahs, to get it done.
Powerplay goes on those boys in sky blue, the Waratahs, against my very own. Shameful…
Brett McKay
Tips: Blues, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions and Stormers.
Explain yourself: And so it all comes down to this. Unfortunately, despite the three different games with major finals implications, it’s the only the Blues versus Chiefs game that I can see much variation in, which doesn’t help those of us still harbouring fanciful dreams of taking out the tipping panel.
To topple Spiro, I have to beat him by three or more and with a bonus point, and then hope that Biltong, Paddy and Elisha all lose to the Blues. Or something like that. Either way, I need the Blues to keep their unbeaten Eden Park record intact.
Brumbies should have too much firepower for the Force, and the Bulls will have too much firepower for the Rebels, even if all 23 players and most of the coaching staff take the field in Pretoria. I genuinely fear for a Rebels massacre, and so the only logical thing to do here is stake the Powerplay on the Bulls, too.
Ben Smith missing for the Highlanders is massive, and that’s a major dent in the Highlanders’ hopes, even with the Crusaders being as up and down as they are. Waratahs will have to wait longer for their bags at the airport than it will take to post the first of many points against the Reds.
Lions and Stormers to get it done in South Africa.
Biltongbek
Tips: Blues, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Crusaders, Waratahs, Cheetahs and Sharks.
Explain yourself: The Blues have been impressive over the past few weeks and Chiefs have lost momentum, while the Brumbies, regardless of injury, and the fact that both teams seem to have lost momentum, should win at home.
Bulls will be too strong for the Rebels, and this is my Powerplay pick, too. It’s simply the most straightforward pick of the weekend, or I should say, should be the most straightforward pick.
The Crusaders, with their stars back, will win at home, Waratahs will beat the Reds as they are the form team, and the Cheetahs will defeat the Lions at Ellis Park.
And event though the Stormers are the team with momentum, this is the last chance for the Sharks to make a semi-final spot, so I’m going with a Sharks victory.
Elisha Pearce
Tips: Chiefs, Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs (P/P), Lions and Stormers.
Explain yourself: I’ll focus on the games that most affect the finals. The Chiefs will make sure no freak results eliminate them with a bonus-point win over the Blues. Then the Brumbies get a dour job done at home to devastate Force fans with hopes of a maiden post-season appearance.
Saturday’s games begin with the Crusaders, who secure a bye and home semi-final with a win at home, making them the official ‘nobody wants to play them’ team heading into the finals. The Stormers strand the Sharks on 46 points with a second defensive masterpiece at home.
Pop the powerplay on the Waratahs, as they seem to have a light sprinkling of form.
And, for extra credit, the top six will be… Waratahs 57 points, Crusaders 50, Sharks 46, Chiefs 45, Brumbies 44 and Highlanders 43.
Tristan Rayner
Tips: Blues, Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs (P/P), Lions and Stormers.
Explain yourself: First of all, a big thanks to Brett for assembling this motley crew of tipsters. And I do think Spiro will be delighted he’s in the lead heading into the final round of regular competition – fair play to the guy who actually does watch every game meticulously. (Unlike some, that definitely wouldn’t include me at all!)
It’s been one of the tougher years of Super Rugby to pick in terms of being able to have faith that the best team will win, with form coming and going for all teams. New Zealand has been my bogey conference – I can’t seem to catch the teams on their day.
Nine points on the table means all of us (bar Scott – sorry mate!) could still win, which shows something. Toughness? Poor performances? Certainly, The Roar‘s tipsters have proven better – with 91 points the equal best at the moment – a full 10-15 per cent better than most of us. That’s pretty good.
Anyway, to this week. Blues at home, Brumbies at home in a doozy, Bulls to hold out the Rebels, Crusaders at home, Waratahs look very good, despite Scott’s piece showing how the Reds can hold them out, and that’ll do me for a powerplay.
I’ll take the Lions in a roll of the dice, and the Stormers in a hope that I’ve managed to jump on their streak before it’s over. I’ll take the Hurricanes over the bye too for a bonus point.
In my possible last chance to plug Techly – our amazing tech site – I have a couple of fun and interesting ones for you:
1. A Drone flies through fireworks, blows us away.
2. Smart homes, smart thieves: Burglars breaking in through our light bulbs?
3. And for the gamers – a guide to pursuing life as an international professional gamer (I know Paddy is keen to show the South Koreans his StarCraft bag of tricks).
Spiro Zavos
Tips: Chiefs, Brumbies, Bulls (P/P), Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions and Stormers.
Explain yourself: This is the last round and I’ve picked, in general, the teams that have the most to gain from a victory.
In the case of the Brumbies and the Force, I have gone for the home ground advantage and the fact that the Brumbies are refreshed with a week off and have a number of influential players coming back.
I’m not taking the Sharks because I think they may have done their dash, and the Stormers are finally living up to their name.
My powerplay is Bulls to beat the Rebels.
Scott Allen – who’s already forfeited the relegation match for next season…
Tips: Chiefs, Brumbies (P/P), Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions and Stormers.
Explain yourself: Some very interesting matches with teams battling for spots in the finals and others jockeying for better positions in the finals rankings.
The Chiefs will beat the Blues and the Brumbies will beat the Force, with the victors both qualifying. I’ll give my powerplay this week to the Brumbies. The Stormers will beat the Sharks, relegating them to third spot on the ladder. The Crusaders will beat the Highlanders and claim second spot on the ladder.
In matches of no consequence to the finals permutations, the Bulls will beat the Rebels, the Waratahs will beat the Reds, and the Lions will beat the Cheetahs.
I think after the weekend the top six will be: ‘Tahs, Crusaders, Sharks, Brumbies, Chiefs and Highlanders.
The Summary
| Round 19 | Scott Allen | Biltongbek | Patrick Effeney | Brett McKay | Elisha Pearce | Tristan Rayner | Spiro Zavos |
| Overall | 69 | 81 | 80 | 79 | 80 | 75 | 82 |
| Last week | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| BLU v CHI | Chiefs | Blues | Chiefs | Blues | Chiefs | Blues | Chiefs |
| BRU v FOR | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies |
| BUL v REB | Bulls | Bulls | Bulls | Bulls | Bulls | Bulls | Bulls |
| CRU v HIG | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders |
| RED v WAR | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs |
| LIO v CHE | Lions | Cheetahs | Cheetahs | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| STO v SHA | Stormers | Sharks | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers |
| POWERPLAY | Brumbies | Bulls | Waratahs | Bulls | Waratahs | Waratahs | Bulls |
| Hurricanes BYE | |||||||