The race for the top four hots up this weekend with the match-up of last season’s grand finalists on Sunday. At first glance, Hawthorn versus Fremantle looks like a contest between two evenly matched teams.
It is first against fourth on the latter’s home turf. Fremantle have won nine of their last 11 matches, Hawthorn nine of their last 10. The first-placed attacking team against the second-placed defensive team.
But on closer inspection there is a gap the size if the Nullarbor between the Hawks and the Dockers. That gap has more to do with Fremantle’s weaknesses than Hawthorn’s strengths.
The most telling stat going into this game is that Hawthorn have beaten Fremantle in nine of their past 10 encounters. The last time the Dockers saluted was in the elimination final of 2010. In the past five years Hawthorn have beaten them by an average of close to seven goals.
Basically Freo’s stingy defence just can’t keep Hawthorn in check, and once the Hawks get off the chain they can’t score enough to go with them.
Even more worrying for the Dockers is that they are in far poorer form now than the last few times they’ve faced the Hawks. When they played in Round 3 they had won their first two games. Coming into last year’s decider they had won seven of their last eight, including two stirring finals victories.
Despite wining nine of their last 11 this year, the two losses have come in their last three games. The only win in that time was a last gasp effort at home to Carlton and one of the losses was a thrashing at the hands of the bottom team, St. Kilda.
Some say that the last quarter comeback that almost sank Geelong last week was a turning point in form. In reality, the Cats totally controlled the game for three quarters and Freo should never have been in a position to win.
Like a lot of teams that struggle for good form, too much is being left for too few at Fremantle. If not for their midfield stars, Nathan Fyfe and Michael Barlow, they would be dealing with three consecutive losses by much bigger margins.
Fyfe and Barlow are being relied upon for not only finding the ball, but also kicking goals for their team. The three men who are arguably Freo’s top three forwards, Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne and Hayden Ballantyne, have kicked seven goals between them in the last three weeks. Fyfe and Barlow, by comparison, have kicked 10.
It’s great to have your best midfielders among the goal kickers, but when you rely on them to kick a winning score you’re in strife.
Another worrying sign for Fremantle leading into this match is their record against the top sides this year. Out of their six matches against the other teams currently in the top six, they have won just one. Last time they played Hawthorn they were down by 10 goals at half time and never bridged the gap.
This week’s home ground advantage needs to be used to its full extent. While Freo have never beaten the Hawks during Ross Lyon’s coaching tenure, nor have they played them at Subiaco. It’s not an ideal time for Hawthorn to travel west, either. They are bringing back two of their stars, Brian Lake and Jack Gunston, after a few weeks on the sidelines and under normal circumstances the Hawks hierarchy would probably prefer to leave them at home for an extra week’s rest.
That may be the only thing working in Freo’s favour, though. For them this game is almost do or die. A top-four spot is far from assured at this point and if they drop this one it gives them all the more work to do.
conchie
Roar Rookie
Should i have rephrased it to say, unless Ross Lyon plays a more attacking positive open style of football, he will never win a premiership, because he has had 3 chances in the big one and has failed each time, even losing, dare i say it to Collingwood. Playing negative defensive football is much more sapping of mind and body ( IMO)
Tom from Perth
Guest
That would be awesome!
Fabes
Guest
I wouldn't begrudge Freo/Lyon a flag. Seems like a lifetime ago watching the Dockers being demolished on a weekly basis... and finding myself barracking for them quietly on occasions. It's good for the game that they're up and about. Wouldn't mind them doing a number on the Cats in the big one. That would be nice lol
Fabes
Guest
Don't you just love footy!! I dare say Ross knows what he's doing. Clarkson probably sat back thinking okay now we have another dimension to Freo's game plan we may need to consider come finals. Chris Scott I dare say would have been just happy to enjoy the spectacle (whilst still taking notes) Horse will be planning for Freo now with the safe bet that even if Hawks lose next week to Cats the possibility of over coming a depleted Magpies outfit is very high. Wow!! Just wow... exciting times ahead!!
Tom from Perth
Guest
Tabener played a reasonable game today, which is promiting. It's a glaring weakness in our side when Pav/Mayne isn't firing though. It's almost worth playing Fyfe CHF and dropping Hill back deeper into the defensive mid or something.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Yeah Clarkson is excellent. They're definitely the best two. Yeah it's a ridiculous and untenable argument that people make. Anyway, hopefully they'll be silenced once Lyon/Freo wins a flag.
Fabes
Guest
Aside from Clarkson I think Lyon is the best in the business. ...and that's not being one-eyed. I seriously rate Clarkson. Mind boggling to point out three grandfinal defeats as not having a game plan that "stands up" on the big day. Both '09 and '10 Grandfinals (not replay) could have gone either way. Last year was closer than most people think. Lyon could be a 3 time premiership coach.The fact he isn't comes down in many respects to certain things out of his control that happen on the field e.g bounce of the ball (you can't coach for that, I don't care who you are!). People need to really think about Articles/Comments before they write. Saying Lyon's game style doesn't cut when it has taken his teams to three out of the past five grandfinals is pretty silly. Anyway that's my opinion. Cheers fellow Roarers and good luck for the finals! Carn The Mighty Hawks! :)
Tom from Perth
Guest
Tom from Perth
Guest
You're a good Hawks supporter Fabes.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Haha I didn't notice this article until I saw Balthazar had commented on it :) But these anti-Lyon posts are everywhere. I don't understand why so many people hate him. I think his usual style can lead to some amazing games like the last two weekends. His versatility was shown today in using a very different game plan and forward structures than normal.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Well besides the fact that for the past two seasons Freo have beaten Geelong in finals... The defence driven plans are at their best in the high pressure games, like finals. There has been evidence of Freo tinkering with their game plan all year, which has been a part in them seeming less convincing than last year. Today's one seems as though it is a new one, which will offer another option and keep others guessing.
Fabes
Guest
Goose or not Tom, it's easy to call someone out after the fact. You should have told him that at 11.01am. Well done Freo. Carn the Mighty Hawks! :)
conchie
Roar Rookie
I hope Ross Lyon will actually allow Freo to play some more football like today, they can play open exciting football and win. Perhaps Lyon has learnt that to actaully win a flag that he must be more postive and let his players enjoy themselves more. If Freo play their normal deefensive lock down game they will not defeat Geelong or Hawthorn in a pressure final.
Fabes
Guest
Guys just ignore articles like this. I posted on the game thread that I actually thought we may lose this one. Well done to Freo. Thoroughly deserved. If I wrote an article on The Roar there is no way I would have written anything like this especially after Freo swarming the Cats in the last quarter of last week. The Saints game was an anomaly. Begs the question if some of the people writing articles actually watch games and watch games of those teams they write about! After the first quarter I was optimistic but before the game thought The Dockers would win. Good on them. As I have said before, it looks set for a cracking finals series!! Carn the Mighty Hawks! :)
Tom from Perth
Guest
Yep Dalgety, let the underdog status continue. Freo were being written off in the Blog on this page by some people even after we had dominated the Hawks in the second quarter. Pretty timely bag by Pav given the attacks he's received on this site during the week.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Haha Jacques you goose
Tom from Perth
Guest
Hahaha wow... these articles are a dime a dozen, and they get proven wrong almost every week! I thought Freo were favourites for this game because of it being at Subi (as you suggest). I tipped them along with the vast majority of my mates in our footy tipping comp. "Basically Freo’s stingy defence just can’t keep Hawthorn in check, and once the Hawks get off the chain they can’t score enough to go with them." Mate, you have egg all over your face.
Balthazar
Guest
Well this is a bit embarrassing. Perhaps next time go with the the tried and true formula this year that each of the top 4 have won at home but lost away games (except when Sydney was luck to get Port at a low ebb). "A gap the size of the Nullabor" - no, not really
Cat
Roar Guru
12-1 Sydney beat Port at AO last round
AB
Guest
I saw an interesting post from Gene a few weeks ago, pointing out that the top four (or in fact it may have been the top five) had played a total of 11 games against each other this year, with the home team winning every time. With Hawthorn beating Sydney and Geelong beating Freo recently, I guess that streak is now up to 13-0. Will be interesting to see whether it's extended even further in today's match, which looks a 50-50 proposition to me.