After another intriguing round of footy, one team has been cut from the finals race as a few more teams have fractured their top eight chances. I’ll review the big matches and look over my tips.
Who won the twilight elimination final between Essendon and West Coast?
Essendon did. A match full of twists and turns ended with Essendon all but securing a finals berth, while the Eagles got kicked out of the finals calculations for good. Essendon started off strongly in the first few minutes as Jobe Watson and his team stamped their authority, before the Eagles soared back in front and dominated the rest of the first half.
Enter Tyson Heppell. The young Bomber with a mop of hair led the charge of the Bombers as they mounted a huge comeback, with Jason Winderlich’s presence up forward getting Essendon over the line in a tight contest. Essendon can now look to win their last games and look to finish seventh, forcing a possible match up with North Melbourne. West Coast can now start planning towards next year after a brave late season effort.
Saturday night knock out clash
Richmond continued a remarkable run as they downed the Crows by ten points after a late rally. Brett Deledio kicked off proceedings by scoring the opening in under a minute as Richmond charged to an early buffer.
They continued to dominate the game as they sat on the brink of victory, until Adelaide got a roll on and stormed back in front in the last quarter as the Crows home crowd roared. The Tigers then pulled of their biggest and strongest effort to overhaul the result and take the win in what was a great game of footy.
Adelaide now have to win at least one of their matches, as a win against North Melbourne next week would see them slide into eighth and match up against Port Adelaide in the first week of finals. Richmond has continued their monumental run, as they sit in their perennial spot in ninth.
They should beat St. Kilda next week, as they then have a massive clash against Sydney in the last round. Both teams will have a tight finish to the season as they both have a chance to make finals.
Tipping
I tipped 6/9, with my incorrect games being the Collingwood/Brisbane game, the Crows/Tigers game and the Melbourne/GWS game.
Sidenote: I was three points off for the margin of the Swans/Saints game, one off for the Port/Gold Coast game, eight off for the Bombers/Eagles game and five off for the Dockers/ Hawks game.
Don Freo
Guest
Or you could just barrack for Freo and be 100% right!
Aransan
Guest
Gene, the easiest way to consider the possibilities is to use probability theory. The probability percentages for teams to win one of the two final eight spots still available have been estimated as: Essendon 82% Adelaide 57% West Coast 29% Richmond 18% Collingwood 9% Gold Coast 5% On this basis if you claim West Coast won't make the eight then you have a 71% chance of being right. There are likely to be big changes to the probabilities after this weekend.
Cat
Roar Guru
even if North beat Adelaide, which isn't a given, and WCE beat the Suns, which also isn't a given, WCE still needs to win by big enough margins to be the higher on percentage. Still a lot of if this, that and a bunch of other things go right required.
Daws
Guest
Yep, have a go at the ladder predictor. If North beat Adelaide then WC are a favourites to make the 8.
Aransan
Guest
The goal umpire said it was a goal, you got that wrong and the video umpire was wrong to over-rule the goal umpire when the evidence was inconclusive. Perhaps it didn't matter in terms of the game but we don't want to see umpires making obvious mistakes.
slane
Guest
Why does it matter? They got a goal feom a muffed kick in half a second later. It was a 7 point play. Richmond should be the ones complaining.
Aransan
Guest
Slane, the AFL has admitted that a mistake was made and the goal called by the goal umpire should have stood: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-08-18/crows-want-answers
Aransan
Guest
The commentators thought that the goal umpire called a goal and was over-ruled by the video umpire -- if so a very poor decision.
Aransan
Guest
I have made a slight error, the probability of GC losing one or more games doesn't come into it as the necessary loss is factored into WCs probability of winning both their games, hence: 0.64 X 0.88 X 0.82 X 0.72 = 0.33
Slane
Guest
Goal umpire said it hit the post. They reviewed it and couldn't conclusively say it didn't hit the post. Bummer for Sloane but luckily they got a goal 2 seconds later to make up for it.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
That's awesome.
Mark Soong
Guest
No one gives tigers a chance when they were 3-10..here they are 7 straight victory put them in the fray..if sydney wins the next match and assuming tigers beat the saints..sydney will have nothing to play for as they already sown up the top spot..so tigers will travel to sydney knowing they wont play their best 22 to freshen up the players for the finals series..everything may fall in place for the tigers to get the 8 spot..
Aransan
Guest
Using bookies odds the probabilities for teams winning in round 22 are: Adel 0.4, GC 0.2, Rich 0.9, WC 0.9. Working out the probabilities for round 23 is very complex as they will probably depend on the results for round 22, what is life or death for one team in a match mightn't be for the other -- it mightn't matter whether they finish 2 or 3, or they will finish 4 regardless. My estimates of the probabilities as crude as they are: Adel 0.9, WC 0.8, Coll 0.2, Rich 0.2. The probabilities of Adel, GC, Coll, Rich losing one or more games is then: 0.64, 0.96, 0.88, 0.82 and the probability of WC winning both their games is 0.72. On these assumptions the probability of WC making the eight is given by: 0.64 X 0.96 X 0.88 X 0.82 X 0.72 = 0.32 or better than the other teams except Adelaide. I understand the simplicity of my assumptions but WC have a significant chance of making the eight. One bookie is giving odds of $3 (probability of 0.33, consistent with my calculations) with only Adelaide and Essendon shorter odds among the still undecided teams.
Barneythecrab
Guest
How come no one is talking about te worst desicion of all. The turn around of a clear goal to the crows, fully registered, then made a point 2 mins later. I thought only collingwood had the power to overturn umpiring descions?
Aransan
Guest
Gene, Richmond play Sydney, Collingwood play Hawthorn and West Coast play GC in the last round -- all likely results in favour of WC. WC play Melbourne at home next week. The biggest danger for WC is that Adelaide play North Melbourne next week with Adelaide given a 40% chance of an upset. We shouldn't forget the psychology, it may not be vital to NM that they win next week and the round 23 games involving Sydney and Hawthorn may not be vital for them. I would say WC have better than a mathematical chance of making the eight.
Garcia
Guest
Its happening
Don Freo
Guest
West Coast is the MOST likely to make it from the teams out of the eight. Look at the fixtures Sean...don't just say stuff in hope.
Cat
Roar Guru
West Coast have to winning both of their remaining games and you need all 4 teams above you to lose at least 1 game ... that's a lot of things that have to go right.
Josh Pinn
Roar Pro
West Coast sent out of the running just yet. They have winnable games against Melbourne and Gold Coast and a percentage higher than the three teams above them. If North beat Adelaide next week the Eagles are still a big chance.