After the euphoria dies down from the All Blacks’ victory last weekend, supporters can be forgiven for believing in the invincibility of the New Zealanders.
It’s a surreal feeling to be an All Blacks supporter at the moment, every fanboy’s dream come true.
However there are still nine more Tests to be played this year. The last six fixtures are all on the road and that includes tricky matches against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and England.
Nobody expected a perfect season last year and hopes for an unbeaten season from the All Blacks this year still shines strongly for fans and the players themselves.
Since 2012, among the sublime has been a few offerings of the average and dollops of the ordinary. Putting strong performances together in consecutive matches has been a challenge that has so far eluded this team.
It’s a strange curiosity that this All Blacks side has yet to deliver the same quality of rugby on their end of year tours as they have during the Rugby Championship. So while we expectantly wait to see northern hemisphere teams put to the sword, the actual performances leave a bitter taste in the mouth.
That’s for the future – the next stage for the All Blacks is to navigate their way through the unique challenges provided by Argentina and South Africa. Both teams present a more direct physical threat than the Wallabies and employ different attack and defensive patterns to overcome.
If sport was logical, then the exponential equation calculated would be:
First ranked New Zealand drew and then thrashed third ranked Australia – divided by – second ranked South Africa beat 12th ranked Argentina in two Tests by a margin of a converted try and less than a converted try – equals – New Zealand to beat Argentina comfortably by 50 points or more.
However the calculations that will be entering Steve Hansen’s mind is how to play the short game and the long game.
The short game is how to maintain and improve upon the standards set at Eden Park against Argentina who have been notoriously tricky customers to put away.
The long game is managing player welfare and provide valuable matchplay for players who have yet to feature in the starting XV and rest those who have played almost every minute.
There is quality of depth in some positions, adequate backup in others and daylight between the incumbent and their nearest rival for a few.
There are three key positions for the All Blacks that if a serious injury were to occur, would leave them threadbare for quality replacements; halfback, hooker and loosehead prop.
Aaron Smith is the most important player to this All Blacks side. Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Kieran Read may gather the most plaudits and attract the most attention from opposition analysis, but without Smith, the speed, width, direction and variety of their attack would suffer.
Dane Coles is the most improved player in this All Blacks side. Twelve months ago he hadn’t convinced the New Zealand public of his quality or ability to match it with his international rivals. He was criticised for being too small, playing too loose and lacking the strength to carry the ball in traffic and stop the opposition in defence.
But he’s now executing his core duties consistently well and provides the team additional strikepower in attack. Public perception has swung in favour of the young man and now the public want to keep him on the field and criticise when he’s substituted off.
Right now the most concerning injury front is to the All Blacks midfield. Behind Fekitoa and Conrad Smith, the options are limited and inexperienced. Solutions can be manufactured by selecting players out of their natural positions but it’s not sustainable nor is it satisfactory.
From my vantage point evolution rather than revolution forms the ethos of Hansen’s tenure. It makes sense, he’s inherited a world cup winning team and hasn’t tried to reinvent the wheel. He’s just tweaked where it was necessary.
There was an enormous amount of pressure from the New Zealand media and public in the Test build-up last week and a fair amount of emotional baggage carried by the players. The desire for redemption was off the scale and the challenge from the Wallabies was real, not perceived.
Now the All Blacks face Argentina.
The pressure valve won’t be turned up as high, the demand to win from the public and press won’t be as high but expectations of a similar or better performance will be unrealistically high.
For all their talk about striving to be the most dominant team, to go through two seasons unbeaten and win a consecutive world cup for the first time, they are only as good as their next game so which way will they go?
Paul from Melbourne
Guest
I know it is a famous saying and the tight 5 are extremely important. But in the modern game, I think the lossies has got to be included to decide who wins.
Neil
Guest
Pity they didn't loose to Ireland. That to me would have been a good loss if there is such a thing
canadiankiwi
Guest
You lost me at Victor Vito. Great athlete, very skilled, but you are fooling yourself to suggest Vito is a hardman in the mold of Jerome Kaino, Jerry Collins, or Brad Thorn.Vito physically dominates at ITM Cup level, but struggles to do so at Super Rugby and fails at Test level. I am a little concerned that Steven Luatua is too much Vito, not enough Kaino.
grant1021
Roar Rookie
great call! i think to lose to a team South Africa or England that will go far next year will help NZ so much more then winning the next 12 or so
Jerry
Guest
"What is it with the Wellington weather – 2 ABs becoming new dads within weeks of each other." It's almost exactly 9 months ago that the AB's would have returned from their NH tour - Coles must have been celebrating that pass to Crotty to save the unbeaten season. As for Conrad, I guess we know what he got up to on his sabbatical.
Old Bugger
Guest
Kuruki Spot on mate. Agree with everything you said. Looks like Nathan Harris may get his chance against the Pumas if Coles is off to join the missus who's due to give birth. What is it with the Wellington weather - 2 ABs becoming new dads within weeks of each other. I don't think Shag & Co are ready just yet to give the young guns a start but definitely will play them off the bench. Perhaps their starts will be against the Eagles...but who knows?? Absolutely agree on Barrett - he is the ABs super sub across the backline who has that ability to just destroy tired players when he gets injected into the game....wow!! And too right about Carter when he returns. Even Shag has admitted this upcoming selection nightmare and what he has to think about and - how does he stand aside either Cruds or Barrett for Carter especially 2 players with the record they have built since Carter's injury concerns started?? What a place to be for a coach - selection problems because of the talent you have rather than the talent you don't have.
LMOB7
Guest
Sam & Max Could not agree with you more. In previous posts at the end of last year A smith was my AB of the year and Dan Coles the most improved, apologies to KR who was without question the best Forward anywhere. Agree that TJP needs more time on the park, he needs to show his stuff of which i believe he has plenty, its just that Aaron is so much fun to watch, his desire and commitment are simply amazing. Crotty showed up well, too bad he got hurt. Put in the subs earlier please, Barret et all need to get blooded.
Sylvester
Guest
I would say playing well and winning and not playing well and winning are still signs of inconsistency.
Harry Jones
Expert
NZ is the best They attack the best They coordinate on defence They push the envelope but they pick their spots and they do it smart No knock on them They've earned it You can disbelieve this But I saw if over & over
WQ
Guest
Harry, this sounds a bit like the Grassy Knoll theories surrounding JFK!! Whilst they make for interesting reading and drive conspiracy theorists mad, they just have never been proved to be true. The All Blacks win quite simply because they do they simple things better than any other Rugby Nation. They do them faster, they do them more accurately and they do them more often. There is no conspiracy, they are just better!
Tabatha Bartunek
Guest
How are the AB's not consistant? They have lost only one game since the world cup & have drawn two games since the world cup. I can't think of any other team that has achieved this. Ok. So they haven't won three games in the last three years. Doe's that not show consistancy? Steve Hanson has done what most coaches wouldn't do. I just read an article which said he doesn't introduce enough new players to be combined with the "old" ones. ( guess that means means at 46 i'm ancient ). Whatever. I really do hope the ABs can be the first team to win back to back world cups, but, hey if they don't do it.. So bloody what!! They are still the best rugby union team this planet has ever seen. I mean, come on.........
Wal the Hooker
Guest
Great piece Sam, totally agree re A Pulu. Super quick and constantly scanning the field. I really hope Rennie gives him more game time. As for Perenara I don't feel he has the temperament to step up yet IMO, just flys off the chain a bit for me. But if he's the chosen back up then he needs serious game time. Brodie Retallic has just been devasting for the ABs and its incredible that Whitelock is now a veteran. What a combo.
pieceofmerce
Guest
Ritchie mccaw is dominant for one reason. He naturally stronger, more athletic, smarter and talented than his opposites, while he has a phenominal internal desire to keep working on his game. Its equivalent to looking for reasons what usain bolt is faster than everyone else. Simply he just is. Name any sporting champion and its the same.
Harry Jones
Expert
No, I’m not making that point (and I know the whinging you’re referring to). I actually saw this while I was looking for OTHER things. I don't whinge about infringements. My expectafion was like yours--that surely all teams under the cosh do the same things out of desperation. I was wrong. What I discovered in my review was a SYSTEM; and it happened almost every time. It’s beautiful and requires more fitness and coordinator than almost any other team has. The key is the infringements have to be done as a group. When you stay attached to others it looks like counter-rucking. Or the “gate” gets hard to spot. Offsides is harder to see if it’s coordinated. That makes it much harder to spot or police. You’ll never ever hear me call McCaw a cheat. Not am I saying the other teams don’t infringe inside their own 22. If they were as fit or coordinated, they’d do it too. Whey it doesn’t come off is when someone sticks out as a lone wolf (McCaw’s recent yellow was solo). I admire this devotion to detail (3 instead of 7–play it out and even risk yellow). I would coach it too
Harry Jones
Expert
No, I'm not making that point (and I loke what you're referring to). What I discovered in my review was a SYSTEM; and it happened almost every time. It's beautiful and requires more fitness and coordinator than almost any other team has. The key is the infringements have to be done as a group. When you stay attached to others it looks like counter-rucking. Or the "gate" gets hard to spot. Offsides is harder to see if it's coordinated. That makes it much harder to spot or police. You'll never ever hear me call McCaw a cheat. Not am I saying the other teams don't infringe inside their own 22. If they were as fit or coordinated, they'd do it too. Whey it doesn't come off is when someone sticks out as a lone wolf (McCaw's recent yellow was solo). I admire this devotion to detail (3 instead of 7--play it out and even risk yellow). I would coach it too
Harry Jones
Expert
HAHAHAHAHA Nicely played fellas
Kuruki
Roar Guru
I think we have to be a little bit realistic here. It's borderline impossible to perform to the highest level every test, especially for the All Blacks who consistently face teams giving their best performances of the season. IMO the All Blacks bring the most out of their opposition especially those one off games at the end of the year. I'm guessing some of those disappointing games are ones people expect the All Blacks to romp home, yet time and time again it's shown that those northern hemi sides often save their best for the men in black so predictions of 30 point victories based on recent form often get turned on their heads. The amazing thing about this All Blacks side is that even when they are not at their best they still find a way to win, and that shows nothing less then consistency imo. It's unrealistic to compare performances from other matches and try to determine how much the All Blacks should win or lose by, every game is different and a week can change everything as the Wallabies found out on the weekend. This All Black side doesn't really rely on any one individual or combination of players to win, there are game winners all over the paddock. The tight five lay the platform but they are not the be all and end all because we have been dominated upfront and won games. The All Blacks strength of late has been our backline, other teams have often matched us upfront and sometimes bettered us but it has been a longtime since anyone has matched us from 9-15 and that doesn't look like changing this season. If the All Blacks can gain parity in the forwards then i don't see them dropping any games from that position. What i would like to see going forward is another hooker come onto the bench for Kevy and A Smith to be managed not so much for his own sake but for someone else to get some much needed experience. These are two areas we could be found out through losing Coles or Smith to injury. SBW coming back into the squad at the end of the year will really boost our depth in midfield and our strike power. Cruden needs to be kept at number 10, his combination with Smith is outstanding, they are developing nicely in black giving us some real creativity in that area. Barret coming off the bench gives us so much impact that i honestly think he is one of the most valuable assets to this side exactly where he is, i would not be in a hurry to start him. What Barrett is doing in 20 minutes is just as valuable as what others are doing for 80. While Carter could still be a valuable member of our World cup squad i really can't justify him replacing either Cruden or Barrett. So much has been achieved with these two young guys, that searching back a few years to talk about Carters All Black form is a bit insulting to the two guys who own those jerseys now. How can you drop a guy who has never lost a game starting at 10 for the All Blacks and Barrett who has never tasted defeat in the Black jersey. It would be a very very big call to bring reinstate Carter anywhere other then at number 3 on All Blacks pecking orde, in saying that i would probably start him ahead of Barrett if Cruden went down, but i would not put him ahead of Barrett if Cruden was starting.
Digby
Roar Guru
Whoops, that should be 'Bajada'
Rusty
Roar Guru
Sounds like a collective engagement of grey matter is what is required to resolve this
woodart
Guest
so you are saying to give The All Blacks more ball??? I LIKE that idea!!!!! can you get a bigger scoreboard??