There is an adage in the AFL when it comes to a premiership that says to win one, you have to lose one.
While it is by no means a guarantee and often not necessarily the path to glory, it is nonetheless a hypothesis that does carry merit.
Fremantle was hoping that it would be the case this season.
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After many years in the football wilderness – and for much of that time being lampooned by opposition fans and the media – the Dockers made it all the way to the big dance last year.
Had it not been for some woeful inaccuracy in front of goal – 1.6 at half-time, two shots out on the full from Nat Fyfe and a horrible shank by skipper Matthew Pavlich – a 15-point loss may well have been a narrow victory.
Alas for the Freo faithful it was not to be.
It was time at that point for them to adopt the lament of many a sports fan – there’s always next year.
Fremantle has been thereabouts all season, having been in the top-eight after every round. The final home-and-away game was in effect an early final for the Dockers.
Pitted against Port Adelaide at Paterson’s Stadium, whichever club that triumphed was guaranteed fourth spot.
The home side prevailed, albeit by just eight points, but it was enough to secure the double chance that comes with a top-four finish.
While the win was certainly not a pyrrhic one it did come at a significant cost.
Michael Johnson struggled through the match, looking far from comfortable.
The news got worse on Monday when the club ruled him out of the finals series, announcing that he would undergo surgery on a damaged disc in his lower back.
Given what lays ahead for the Dockers his absence may well be a mortal blow.
This Saturday the club plays its first match in this season’s finals campaign against Sydney at the Olympic Stadium.
The minor premier boasts a potent forward-line headed up by this year’s Coleman Medallist Lance Franklin who claimed the award for the third time on the back of a 67-goal haul from 19 games.
His principal support acts have been Kurt Tippett (28 in 11) and Adam Goodes (24 in 17).
The problem for the Dockers is that trio all stand over 190cm – Tippett (201cm), Franklin (198cm) and Goodes (191cm).
The loss of Johnson is a blow that hits Fremantle hard.
At 195-centimetres tall, last year’s All-Australian defender would have been integral to Ross Lyon’s game plan with respect to the Dockers would nullifying the Swans’ plethora of tall forwards. At 196 centimetres, Sam Reid could be another in the mix.
Unfortunately for Freo, Johnson will be a spectator this weekend alongside Luke McPharlin.
The 192-centimetre, 2012 All-Australian full-back has been sidelined several times this season with calf problems.
The latest occurred against the Cats in Round 20 and it will see him miss the club’s opening final.
Ironically, he literally limped into last year’s finals series with a calf injury as well.
Thirty-two year-old McPharlin has played just 13 games this season having missed rounds 8-10, 13-15 and 20-23 with injury.
Whenever he does return to the fold, Lyon and his match committee will have their fingers crossed that he does not go down again.
The absence of Johnson and McPharlin against Sydney – and potentially beyond for McPharlin – will really stretch Fremantle’s resources as far as tall defenders are concerned.
Alex Silvagni (192cm) was a late withdrawal against Port Adelaide, in favour of Garrick Ibbotson, with the Power opting to play just two tall forwards in Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff.
He will demand selection this weekend.
The only other seasoned tall defender that the Dockers possess is Zac Dawson, at 197-centimetres tall.
Fremantle will be hoping that the forecast for a few showers in Sydney on Saturday afternoon is an understatement.
Beyond Saturday’s match against the Swans, if it is to win the premiership, Fremantle has potential match-ups against two other clubs with numerous tall forward options – Hawthorn (Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and Matt Spangher) or Geelong (Tom Hawkins, Mitch Brown, Shane Kersten and Josh Walker).
Without Johnson for the remainder of the season, and possibly McPharlin, Fremantle’s hopes of a tilt at another grand final have been greatly reduced.
Tom from Perth
Guest
You'd make a great spin doctor, Don. I can't wait for tomorrow's game!
Tom from Perth
Guest
You reckon? I was thinking he'd end up more like Duffield. Good comment johno.
Don Freo
Guest
Pressure's on Sydney in that circumstance.
Don Freo
Guest
Suttie will be another Barlow in the midfield in a few years. Could do it tomorrow. He is such a pure footballer.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Always keen to learn something Peter.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Could have been later in the game Dalgety, my memory said first quarter but then it could have been any qtr. Nice to see you are that interested that you need to double check.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Hey Peter B…was having a bit of a squiz that GWS game, watching the first quarter for that Ballas dive you spoke of….not a sign of it. I am keen to see it, as I'm really surprised that Ballas would do that, having watched him play so many games. What stage of the quarter do you think it happened? The only time I saw him fall forwards was when he was trying to tackle a GWS player, but no one behind him at all.
Don Freo
Guest
You reckon we'll play Mayne in the midfield? I hope Horse is planning on that too.
Don Freo
Guest
Could be a blind and a last minute substitution of McPharlin.
Don Freo
Guest
Has been his whole career. Only Cox would cover more ground.
PilbaraFrenzy
Guest
Thank you Natalie, for saying 'how it is' in Swans land. I think you're rather misguided if you honestly think Fremantle's defence is 'rubbish', but each to their own. As Ross the Boss says, "We are a no excuse football team". Anywhere, any team, anytime (sound familiar?). Tell me the last time you heard Fremantle Football Club make an excuse for a loss. Sometimes there are contributing factors that us proud and passionate fans may discuss, but excuses? Nope. Freo travel across the country every second week and are perpetual underdogs, and we like it that way! I am looking forward to a hard, contested, fantastic game of football, and may the best team win.
Natalie SwansFan
Guest
Far out, I've never seen so many people tip toe around. Say it how it is. The Swans are the better team right at the moment. Freo's defence is rubbish and will not hold up against the brilliance of Buddy, the height and strength of Tippett, the elusiveness of Goodes and the sometimes painful to watch but committed Reid. They can't cover those 4 and also contend with the likes of Parker, Cunningham, Kennedy, McGlynn, Rohan, Jetta, Jack, and Llyod who will all hit the scorebaord. Not to forget Malceski and Rampe from outside 50m and Pyke who will also float forward. Freo have not the ability to cover 15 potential goal scorers, real potential goal scorers. Dawson can only punch the ball to the boundary, and is woeful under pressure. Buddy or Tippo will eat him up. Silvagni will have his work cut out. They will probably have to double team, one or both. Rossy is already panicking, hence bringing Griffen in so he can push Clarke back. The flip side is Pavlich and Tabener get Grundy and Richards. Tabener is a young kid with no finals experience and will get the shock of his life when he has these guys containing him, with Rohan and Malceski coming over the top. Ballantyne, the little pest, will get Smith or Rampe and he will be well held to halfway through the 3rd qtr and by then it will be too little too late. Walters will get the other. As good as this boy is, he isn't going to get much time and space as it will be red hot down back. Fyfe, Mundy, Mayne, Barlow, Neale and Hill are all classy midfielders and they will all get 20+ possessions but will be strangled by the Swans relentless, disciplined mids. Crowley will go to Hanners and the Swans will give it to him Carlton like. Once he is touched up he generally starts giving away silly free kicks and that's what will happen on Saturday. Hannerbery will still rack up 20+ and meanwhile Jack and Kennedy will run rampant leaving Rossy with a who to tag issue. Sandilands and Clarke will dominate all over the ground. Whether it's Pyke, Tippett or Reid, these guys wont get close to the big Fremantle rucks and with Griffen chipping in, it'll be the most one sided ruck contest we have ever seen. But the Swans will be too red hot on the inside and Fremantle won't get a chance to release the ball to their quicks on the outside. The Swannies will get up by 5 or 6 goals. Freo will scream blue murder "we weren't full strength!!", "its a conspiracy, the AFL rigged our flights!!", "the surface was awful". I can hear it already. If we happen to lose, which is highly unlikely, the Swannies won't have any excuses and will just get ready for a home final against Port. If Freo happen to win, then no one will get near Fremantle until Grand Final day. But it just won't happen.
Balthazar
Guest
Full strength but some rusty players, I suspect
mattyb
Guest
It's not so much wanting,more realising.The afl hierarchy has realised but I can't see them stopping Lyon finally adding a premiership to his CV.a little silly comparing st kilda to Fremantle.
chris
Guest
What amazes me in all these comments is why do the freo supporters want their team in the GF.... Now that is a poisoned chalice... Your team is coached by an expert in losing GF's.... 0 from 4... Its getting Gary ablett senioresque....
mattyb
Guest
The alf stoop to another low level,last year they sent the Dockers to Geelong,this year they're using their contacts to cancel flights?
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Bold move from Lyon to include Griffen. Guess that is so Clarke can help out in defence? I see they have had issues with flights. Not good for their preparation. Virgin has given them either a red eye or a 6am flight in the morning. Either way, I hope hat doesn't marr their preparations.
Mark
Guest
No he isn't.
Mark
Guest
Sydney are full strength save for Alex Johnson who hasn't played for the 2012 GF. Full strength vs 2 of their best defenders out is a big difference.
Fabes
Guest
Fair call Johno but what was their average "for" against Freo in the two H&A games?