They may be magnificent, but it is official – the All Blacks are no longer a protected species under the laws of the game, as applied by the current crew of Test referees.
The four yellow card sanctions imposed on the All Blacks during the two recent Bledisloe Cup Tests seemed a big step for the referees concerned.
It was hard to remember when the men in black had ever been hit so hard by officialdom, despite the repeated claims of unbalanced adjudication from indignant opponents.
Prior to the last two Tests, how often had we seen All Black teams repeatedly commit fouls, and give up penalties inside of their own quarter, in order to stymie an opponent’s momentum; without referees ever resorting to a harsher punishment?
Curious, I decided to try and find out. An extensive trawl through the various statistical-related rugby websites followed.
The numbers the search threw up are revealing to say the least.
Between 2005 and 2011, the All Blacks played 92 Tests, and were on the receiving end of 25 yellow cards through this time. This equates to an average of one for every 3.68 Tests played.
By contrast, their opponents copped 30 yellows, and two reds, for the same period – with a mean of 2.87 Tests per sanction.
Fast-forward to between 2012 and 2014, and the search threw out 17 All Black yellow card sanctions from 33 Tests, with the average lowering dramatically to one card for every 1.9 Tests, a drop of nearly two full Tests per sanction.
Through the same time frame, their opponents suffered just 10 yellow cards, at one for every 3.3 Tests – which represents an additional 0.4 Tests of playing time, per infringement.
The numbers suggest that the All Blacks are cheating more, while their opponents are either getting smarter, or are actually more disciplined.
Interesting, The Outsider thought.
So I looked at All Black captain Richie McCaw as a individual test case, given he is so frequently targeted as having been beyond the law, and yet was pinged with consecutive yellows by Jaco Peyper and Romain Poite in the two most recent Tests.
Incredibly, the sanctions – which occurred in his 127th and 128th Tests, were just the second and third of his 14-year Test career.
Prior to this year’s Sydney Bledisloe, the only time McCaw had ever been yellow carded while playing for his country was during his 48th Test, against Wales at Cardiff where the referee was Australia’s Stu Dickinson.
Now McCaw is a great player, arguably the best the game has ever seen, but surely even he is not that perfect, especially given the totally imprecise science that is the management of breakdowns.
All in all, the figures represent quite a dramatic change in approach towards the All Blacks by the match adjudicators, unless the Kiwis have all of a sudden become much more blatant cheats, which I don’t believe to be the case.
They are applying the same defensive tactics they always have, in terms of slowing opposition momentum.
The moment the threat arises, the All Blacks will kill quick ball at the breakdown, happy to concede the penalty in the knowledge that three points conceded is better than seven.
More often than not, they have the advantage on the scoreboard, so the foul can be committed safe in the knowledge that their opponents will probably not kick for goal anyway.
If they don’t have the scoreboard advantage, the ‘fouls’ committed within goal-kicking range seem to be much less prevalent, as was highlighted during the latter stages of the drawn Test in Sydney a couple of weeks ago.
Based on the statistics above, it could be argued that the All Blacks are an even better team now than they were, given that the sentences against them have risen dramatically, yet they are winning more games than ever.
After all, the Wallabies effectively played just shy of a quarter of the total playing time in the two recent Bledisloes against 14 men, yet failed to score a single try during the periods where their opponents’ manpower was reduced.
So Kiwi Roarers, be calm, your team is still the best.
The card numbers are simply as they are. It is up to us all individually, to interpret their meaning.
Oh, and just as background, the reference points used for the timeframes in my study, are the tenures of the two most recent International Rugby Board referees’ bosses.
They, after all, have a pretty big sway on the appointments of referees to Test matches.
They have also been known to publicly criticise, and defend, their referees on occasion, although this hasn’t happened for a while.
The current referees’ boss is former French Test referee Joel Jutge.
He took over in 2012, hence the 2012-14 period forming the second part of the study.
His predecessor ‘ruled’ the refs from 2005 until 2011.
He was from, um, er… well you know the answer to that!
Loosey
Guest
I hope you're not making a tactful attempt to have kiwi fans admit McCaw cheats. I'm satisfied that the entire rugby world asides from NZ and a Kiwi Ref think McCaw cheats. The whole 'but it's how he does it' argument is a good laugh too.
Steve
Guest
No team is immune from being pinged and least of all the Kiwi rugby team, this is some more of the typical whining. They win the vast majority of their games because they're better players, plus they have their fair share of poor decisions that go against them too.
Good Game
Guest
Great piece Outsider. I love the way that you measured other top tier nations yellows against everyone else in the same period along with reasons for the cards both conceded and given to the opposition (cynical or foul play/ref error), really gives it context and perspective. Oh wait a minute... You didn't. I would say that the reason yellows have increased (on the whole) would be more to do with the way the games rules have been interpreted since 2010 where cynical play was punished more severely. How does that compare to other teams Outsider? What is ratio of yellows amongst top tier teams since 2010 in comparison to pre 2010? Are we seeing more tries as a result? England and South Africa (to a lesser extent) are playing more positively these days... Something that was unthinkable a few short years ago. Anyway I'm getting side tracked. How about you rewrite this using an objective and complete data scope rather than being selective in how you apply it? I don't believe that you're trolling but the word lazy comes to mind.
wardad
Guest
But I do think you should at least spell "Intimidated " out .....correctly .
richard
Guest
Garbage,look at your own team before accusing NZ of cynical play.You only have to look at the WBs scrum tactics as a case in point. This "kiwis are cynical" argument comes from sore losers who are jealous of NZs success - nothing more,nothing less!
Mark
Guest
El Gamba....Kearnsey is on your side, gold mate, pure unbiased double eyed gold !
PiratesRugby
Guest
The first time I read about the frequency of AB yellow cards was in the NZ Herald. The article simply pointed out frequently the ABs were being carded (almost every game) and how relatively infrequently their opponents were carded (almost 3 times less often). The author felt it tainted his national side's legacy. Unless there's a conspiracy against the ABs (Bismarck's card for tackling Dan Carter kind of disproves that) then the statistics show that the ABs have a discipline problem. They've admitted it. Some of their fans can't deal with it and troll Australian websites to vent their outrage. Please go away. I don't go and troll NZ sites.
Phantom
Roar Rookie
Never been protected and never likely to be.
Dave
Guest
Just think, pretty soon the WBs will have to take responsibility for their own Gash performances, since the ABs are no longer a 'protected species,' it means they can't blame the Ref. What are the 'Expert' Trolls going to write about then I wonder?
Dave
Guest
Be kind on the troll, still hurting after the ass reaming the WBs got at Eden Park, and getting the whining in early for Brisbane. He'll be hoping the WBs get a free ride like they did in Sydney (as has been the case for many years - the WB scrum has been a 'protected species') and the 'leg up' as per the ridiculous yellow for Habana - I guess having the opposition reduced to 14 men had to pay off for them eventually!
Dave
Guest
Could say the same about reading your whining posts
Dave
Guest
Yeah the holding back of Savea in the 3rd minute denying a probable try and the flying head but on McCaw should have seen both of the AB players ent to the bin for sure- it really wasn't fair omn the Argies.
Dave
Guest
And of course, it is even worse when they were the only team doing it!
BOP
Guest
When the writer mentioned that Richie McCaw got yellow carded in Sydney and Eden Park on consecutive weekends, this article lost any credibility.
The Twins
Roar Rookie
the ABs have never been a protected species....they are as open to the calls of the refs as any other team on the planet that plays rugby....so what is your point???
Richard
Guest
Be fair mate. he's awesome and we all worship at the temple, but he's not a two try player any more thats for sure. That was an aberration, and more power to him. On the broader topic, I'm glad they are getting pinged for cynical play more often. Kiwis deserve to win without the cloud hanging over them.
two meke
Guest
I've noticed it a trend that when the defending team infringe, the ref will play advantage, if the attacking team then go on to score a try, then justice is served. However if the attacking teams advantage is lost, the ref will stop play call in the cynical player and send him to the bin. So when the all blacks infringe in their 22(which all teams do) they also prevent the try(not always) and then get carded. but when their opposition offend in the all blacks 22, they use the advantage to play more loose which tend to get hem over the line
Chan Wee
Guest
@ kesmcc : i heard that SA union has given referees instructions to yellow cynical play ion the domestic rugger. it may be why peyper was trigger happy. only issue was he was penalizing only one team.
kesmcc
Roar Pro
and too many games are being decided by refs calls that they have to go back and apologize for later.
kesmcc
Roar Pro
too right gazza, second infringement in the same maul and dangerous. absolutely deserved. Dont get me started on kearnsey El gamba. he would give the AB's yellow cards for running onto the field if he could