Allianz Stadium will become the land of opportunity for South Sydney when the NRL finals series begins on Friday night.
The last thing Rabbitohs fans should want to hear if their team can’t beat Manly is excuses, because there will be none.
The Sea Eagles finished higher than Souths on the competition table, but because of the NRL’s venue policy in relation to finals games they will effectively be at a disadvantage.
NRL Finals fixture
Allianz Stadium may not be the home ground of the Rabbitohs, but it may as well be on this occasion because it is close to their base and Souths supporters will way outnumber the notoriously non-travelling Manly fans.
But that is just one point, albeit a strong one, in favour of the Rabbitohs.
Secondly, Souths have two extra days in which to prepare for the game after having played the Sydney Roosters last Thursday. Manly played North Queensland on Saturday.
And making that situation even worse for the Sea Eagles is the fact they had to travel a long way – to Townsville – for their game, while the Rabbitohs played in Sydney.
When Manly’s players arrived back in Sydney on Sunday it was already the third day in which the Souths players had been able to continue their recovery.
And, finally, the Rabbitohs will get halfback Adam Reynolds back from suspension after he missed their 22-18 loss to the Roosters, while the Sea Eagles are in all sorts of trouble with injuries.
Manly were missing Brett Stewart, Brenton Lawrence, Matt Ballin, Jamie Buhrer and Glenn Stewart for their 30-16 loss to the Cowboys.
It is anticipated Brett Stewart and Lawrence will return for the game against Souths, but the other three are all gone for the season and they are all forwards.
I wrote after the second-last round that Manly’s comeback win over Penrith had saved their season. At that stage it was clear Buhrer had joined Glenn Stewart on the list of players who would play no further part in the season, but Ballin’s situation wasn’t clear until a couple of days later.
Ballin has made noises about possibly making a comeback if the Sea Eagles go deep into the finals series, but it obviously sounds like a long-shot and, anyway, it doesn’t help them this week.
I still think Manly are capable of winning the premiership, but they are going to need some luck along the way and if they get that because Souths are a bit off their game, then that will be nobody’s fault but the Rabbitohs.
Remember what happened the last time Souths played the Sea Eagles, in Round 22? Souths smashed them, 23-4.
It was the result that had the effect of Manly losing premiership favouritism to the Rabbitohs.
Souths subsequently lost favouritism to the Roosters, who have finished the regular season in great style, but the Rabbitohs will start clear favourites over Manly on Friday night and you can understand why when you compare the two forward packs.
The Rabbitohs have to decide where to play John Sutton, with Luke Keary and Reynolds the anticipated halves pairing. The Sea Eagles would love to have a problem like that – how to fit in a star player.
It would be great for their team’s sake if Manly fans attended Allianz Stadium in big numbers for this game, but history says that won’t happen.
I don’t think that means the NRL’s policy in playing finals games in the city’s biggest stadiums is wrong, though.
Finals football is supposed to be a big event and the NRL is entitled to treat it that way with its scheduling.
If we had a situation where every club had a fantastic home ground with great amenities it would be a different story, but unfortunately we don’t.
bearfax
Guest
Just goes to show that in this comp, some teams are more equal than others
Ryan
Guest
Sad part is they should legitimately not be in the comp.
Clint
Guest
If manly played the roosters this week as opposed to souths, the game would have been at ANZ. ANZ is souths home ground, so Allianz is considered 'away' for them (but even further away for manly). Roosters home ground is Allianz and as it was Manly's home semi, the game would have been scheduled at ANZ, or away for the roosters but thats also quite 'away' for Manly too as I'm sure you can appreciate.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Spot on Muzz and that response shows how weak souths are. The only time they play footy is when they're 18 points down, otherwise it's robotic monotony, tear arms and legs off and hope Inglis can go length of the field.
john badseed
Guest
Perfect size crowd for the game to be played at Manly's home ground.
john badseed
Guest
With the Libs running the NBN we'll have black and white TV soon and then the bunnies are in with a shot.
Muzz
Guest
Come on Steve, harden up maaaaaate.
steveng
Guest
What are you smoking Muzz? Souths mentally weak, very low IQ and army trainer as a coach? Those are unbelievable comments and downright offensive.
Johnk
Guest
But Craig, isn't the Roosters v Panthers match supposed to come first? It always happens that way, plus this game is referred to as the '2nd qualifying final' however is the 1st one to be played. I am not a manly fan nor do I believe in conspiracies, but that does sound strange eh?
Johnk
Guest
If Souths can't get this one, I predict they'll go out in straight sets. If they lose, the next match will be against either Melbourne or the Dogs (Melbourne in my opinion).
Jay C
Roar Guru
Hahaha. You obviously haven't been to Mt. Isa Bearfax. And I meant ten hours each way. Whats up with the nitpicking on distances and times. We get it. Google has information. As someone who has done the drive more times than I care to remember I can tell you though that at 160 you wouldn't be passing too many people. It is long and straight and you might see a tree every half hour or so if you're lucky. People do travel it all the time though. And people from the outback stations all around the area. Thats why they are the Nth Qld Cowboys. They probably have the most decentralised fans of any club and yet continually average top 4 crowd figures.
bearfax
Guest
What's his name Jay C? He's either got his own Lear Jet or I'll pass on his details to the police to nab him doing 160kph down the highway, because the road distance from Mt Isa to Townsville is 906 kms. Conservatively that's 20 hours of travel to and from the ground. Must have a lot of spare time on his hands and weekends must be very boring in Mt Isa
Jay C
Roar Guru
Pwoplw travel in from Mt. Isa and surrounds all the time to watch the games. Almost every weekend you can meet someone who has come in from out west.
pat malone
Guest
10 hours? slight exaggeration? cowboys crowds are not that great
Muzz
Guest
Fire up mate and if you can, get out to Allianz and support your team.It's a whole new ball-game now and remember Souths are mentally weak.They also have a very low footy IQ and army trainer as a coach. 2V appears very relaxed which would suggest that he has it all under control.
bearfax
Guest
I hate being a realist Muzz. But Manly's middle is looking awful vulnerable. It would take a Herculean effort for their backline to offset their weakness in the forwards. Buhrer and Ballin do so much of the clean up work in the middle. Young Hodges looks the goods but he's only just starting and cant expect him to hold the forwards together. Take away Watmough and Lawrence and Manly looks pedestrian in the forwards. But hey I'm hoping. Having the game wrongly played away from Brookie doesnt help either. The heads of the NRL need a kick up the a for that one.
Knightblues
Roar Guru
Don't count Souths out, they have been off lately a bit and no Reynolds to steer them, they probably would have beaten the roosters if Reynolds had played. Souths v Easts GF
Dennis
Roar Rookie
"From a form viewpoint, anyone below the Cowboys are just making up the numbers anyway." - Finals are a completely new competition.
Knightblues
Roar Guru
Game should attract at best the usual 4,000 manly supporters who can be bothered to drag themselves away from the screens, and possibly 15,000 souths supporters, some of the fabled 80,000 who once marched for them to be back in the comp, so they could sit back in their lounges or pubs and watch them again.
Ted
Guest
You know Manly! A for adversity! Semis are a different beast! Manly love this time of the year!