Members, supporters and even casual fans of the four clubs playing next weekend would all have justified reason to believe their team can win and advance to a grand final qualifier the following week.
While Geelong was beaten by Hawthorn, there were plenty of positive signs to say they are at the very least capable of getting to Sydney for a preliminary final against the Swans.
The Kangaroos? Wow. Gone for most people’s money, but to come back and win the way they did, they will be bulging with confidence heading into their semifinal with the Cats, and it would not surprise any if they made their way to the Harbour City.
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And on the other side of the draw? Fremantle, gallant against the Swans, will be a different beast on their home patch in Perth next weekend. They have won nine in a row at Patersons, 11 of 12 there this season, and have won a staggering 28 of their past 30 matches on their home ground.
But they face an in-form Port Adelaide. They were awesome against Richmond, and did run the Dockers to eight points in the final game of the home-and-away season.
Any of the four can win their semifinals next weekend, and from there, well, what’s to stop them winning again the week after and going on to play for the flag on the final Saturday in September?
Well, history says it’s highly unlikely. In fact listen to the loud voice of history, and you’ll clearly hear that Sydney and Hawthorn are destined for a dance at the MCG on September 27, playing each other in the grand final for the second time in three seasons.
While the top eight format began back in 1994, the current playoff format where the top four play each other and bottom four in the eight play each other in Week 1 of the finals, only came into play in 2000.
In that first season, Essendon and Melbourne won the qualifying finals. They had the week off, and then beat Carlton and the Kangaroos respectively to qualify for the grand final, which the Bombers would win.
It was an identical story in 2001 with Essendon and Brisbane, and again 2002 when Brisbane and Collingwood won in Week 1, got a week’s break and then both won their preliminary finals.
In 2003, there was slight glitch. Collingwood and Sydney won in Week 1, and while the Pies would win their prelim, the Swans lost to eventual winners Brisbane in the penultimate week, the Lions having lost in Week 1 to the Pies.
In 2004 Port and Brisbane both won in Week 1, then both won their preliminary finals. Sydney and the West Coast not only met in the 2005 and 2006 grand finals, but they faced each other in Week 1 of the finals in both seasons.
As such, in 2005 West Coast won, as did St Kilda, in Week 1, before Sydney beat the Saints in the preliminary final to set up a grand final with the Eagles. The following year, Sydney beat the Eagles in the qualifying final, Adelaide won the other qualifier, but the Eagles then beat the Crows before going on to beat the Swans in the decider.
Ever since then – in the following seven seasons – the two teams which have won in Week 1 in the qualifying finals, have enjoyed a week off, and then won their respective preliminary finals to reach the last Saturday in September.
But first this weekend Fremantle will be happy to be back home despite meeting a rampant Port side which has suddenly rediscovered their form late in the season. Freo, with their fine home record, have also not lost at home to Port since 2008.
If they do get past Port and play Hawthorn, well, they have lost their past 10 games on the road against Hawthorn, and haven’t beaten the Hawks in Melbourne since 2001.
If Port can get past Freo though, they do have a win over Hawthorn from this season, but it was at home. They had lost their previous five to the Hawks, and not beaten them in Melbourne since 2009.
Geelong, one of the powerhouses of the past decade, have had it over North (and many other teams) for a while and have won 10 of the past 12 clashes between the clubs dating back to 2007, but some might say the Roos are going better than the Cats right now, however the Cats have got that big time experience.
If Geelong get past North, their record against Sydney looks good, with 12 wins from 15 starts dating back to 2006. But – and it’s a huge but – they were humbled in Sydney by the Swans this season, losing by 110 points in Round 11. They will get picked apart again.
Should North make it to Sydney for the prelim then they can take confidence from beating the Swans in Round 4 when the red and whites were all over the place. But apart from that, you need to go back to 2004 to find a North win in Sydney, and I can’t see another coming in 2014.
But I don’t think history will be why the Swans and Hawks will head to the grand final. I think they have, for some time, been the best two teams in the competition. They were clearly the best on the weekend in their matches, and in all honesty they deserve to play for the premiership in three weeks’ time.
Mark Soong
Guest
All the while, there is no dispute of swans and hawks the runaway best team of the comp..Hang on..this does not means it shoe-in for both of them to contest the GF..By this weekend, their opponents for the preliminary finals are known..On paper both the freo and cats have the experience of getting through. For Freo, if they do take on the hawks in the prelim, they have the motivation of atoning for last year Grand Final defeat. Similarly for the cats, since they have not been playing 4 quarters of breath taking football, I have strong feeling that the 2007 cats all conquering footy is around the corner and they could give sydney a run of their money. Whats makes eveyone thinks if the freo or cats cannotmake the GF...After all, records are made to be broken.
Johnk
Guest
Ok Don how about this, Port to beat Freo, Freo out in straight sets. That's my prediction.
Don Freo
Guest
I understand the AFL has organised P&O shipping lines to transport Freo to the Grand Final.
Don Freo
Guest
NM v Freo (remember Freo has the wood on Hawthorn)...and you won't be barracking for Freo? Olivia, I'm shattered.
Don Freo
Guest
Greetings Olivia. Maybe we'll have one more Dosie Doe in the GF. Notice how Freo looks after its fans? Well be the only team to play all four finals. The boys in purple believe in value-adding! Good luck to the Swannies...but they'd better play Tom Mitchell, or they will lose him.
New York Hawk
Guest
Strangely I am worried by both of them. Here's to a cracking game at subi where each team beats the living daylights out of each other in a physical contest for the ages. I would prefer to play Port, as I am not convinced their style of play would hold up against us in a prelim, whereas Freo's definitely does. I feel we could end up blowing Port away due to their ultra-aggressive, attacking style, but feel Freo would restrict our attack and make it a very close game. I am not looking forward to our prelim an just hope we beat whomever we play and then hope we don't have to play the swans, as although I am very confident we would win, the thought of losing to Buddy (esp after 2012) is too much to handle. Seeing him lose would be amusing though and the swans have gone from my second team to me supporting the Bombers if they play the swans. I never foresaw a situation where that was possible and yet....
Gregor
Guest
Interesting stat about the Swans this year,despite the hype that they tackle better,cleaner etc and therefore deserve to have a freekick discrepancy in their favour,if you look at the figures the significant trend is for them to lose the freekick count away from home and to win it in Sydney,including the QF. The five games,3 at home and two away where it doesn't apply have a total of 9 freekicks difference,so it's actually quite significant.It shows homeground bias by the umpires, which I'm sure applies to other teams,but I'd hate for the Swan's next opponent to suffer because of it
sancho
Guest
But you will catch even more flies with those stinky smelling fly catchers..
Me Too
Guest
top 16 - straight knockout. 1v 16, 2v 15, etc. top team actually gets an advantage over second (currently no difference, although you could argue top is disadvantaged by playing 3rd in the ko prelim, whilst second gets fourth). Top team plays 16, 8, 4, 2. Second gets 15, 7, 3, 1. All games mean something as all are ko. The lower down the ladder, the much harder it gets. And higher teams always at home (and in home jumpers - just for a change). If eight by some miracle beats firat, they still play away against fourth. Good enough system for nfl, tennis, football world cups, etc - the top 16 ko format is good enough for afl.
asd
Guest
What is th best finals system 1vs4 2vs3 or the macintyre system like the nrl
AB
Guest
Agreed.
Mango Jack
Guest
Yes, agreed. All the hyped up talk of Richmond's brave run to the finals, Essendon delivering against the odds, etc. All distractions when it comes down to it. The top 4 is the main game and one of them will be premiers this year.
geoff
Guest
the finals system is clearly about revenue raising for teams and the afl. i mean, teams 5 to 8 have no hope of winning the flag. as exciting as these games are, these teams have buckleys chance of winning the flag. However, the money made from 80,000 at the G and 50,000 at adelaide oval is important. So whilst there are upsides to teams playing so called finals football. the real finals are between the top 4 only.
Mango Jack
Guest
You actually sound like his mother, Olivia.
Michael huston
Guest
So guys, can we agree that this year was hardly any different to the last few years? All the talk was about how open this year was, and how there could be some new teams challenging. Indeed there is, with Port challenging, but apart from that you have Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong and Freo. Typical media...
Shouts Chen
Guest
You thinking about Adelaide Oval? Adelaide Oval is not a place for AFL Grand Final.
asd
Guest
The interupted flight might have affected freo to . If geelong get to the prelim which is possible no one would give them a hope against sydney . They have got the backline to hold sydney .
Don Freo
Guest
Not a problem with criticizing, Andy...just don't be so hateful about it. Surely you can be more discursive.
Fabes
Guest
Brian.I agree. Another thing of note is Hawthorn's "system". As long as Clarko is the coach Im confident they will be there abouts in the coming years despite a raft of expected retirees in the next year or so. Clarko's mantra of replacing one warrior with another as well as the youth learning from the older generation combined with the "system" holds the Hawks in good stead. Carn the Mighty Hawks :)
Fabes
Guest
Lol. Well we wouldn't want that. I'm actually going for Freo. Would rather see them in the Granny if the Hawks don't make it. I suspect if they get there they'd be in with a good chance of toppling the Swans on neutral ground. Imo anyway.