The relieved face of Ewen McKenzie after the Wallabies clinched a 24-23 victory over the Springboks in Perth said it all. He was a man under pressure.
He looked as though he knew he had blown it badly in the coach’s box at Auckland two weeks before, and the difference in his demeanour was palpable.
Of course, a win at the death would change any coach’s demeanour to happiness, but there was something more there. He looked as though he may have realised that his stubbornness in selections was his own greatest threat, and he actually needed to heed advice and was now willing to accept that.
This could be a turning point for his Wallaby coaching career, which has looked pretty uncertain of late.
So what if? What if he had chosen Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley from the first Bledisloe Test? I don’t think too many would now disagree that the cache of confidence flowing from the June France Tests and the Waratahs Super Rugby win would be much more intact.
How much more is obviously hard to say, considering the Auckland thrashing, but the likelihood of having won instead of drawing the first Bledisloe Test is a fairly reasonable assertion given subsequent events on the field.
The likelihood of the second Bledisloe Test thrashing would have been greatly reduced as well, but the All Blacks were men on a mission on that day and determined to prove that they were not edging down the other side of a great peak.
Some interesting and positive developments emerged from the Springboks match in Perth, apart from the obvious influence Kurtley Beale had in replacing Matt Toomua at the end. Why not sooner is the cry of the Wallaby supporting fraternity, and so it should be.
I referred above to a possible change in the McKenzie viewpoint and even though Foley made a few errors (restart into touch, dropped up-and-under, stripped ball), he gave an assurance and control to operations that had been obviously missing.
Foley was under enormous pressure to perform given his dropping and subsequent reinstatement to save the team, particularly in the low-confidence Wallaby environment. In those circumstances, Foley performed very well. His winning conversion from a difficult position was a further indication of his worth. Foley is back.
What of Beale, however? Coming on at the 70 minute mark to somehow engineer a miracle come-from-behind win is a big ask. Folau instantly looked more confident in attack, and the attack seemed to suddenly have space and attacking options. The Waratahs back line, except for Kuridrani, was in place and the cohesion and threat were there immediately.
With Beale in the back to help with fielding Springbok kicks to the corners, particularly in the first 20 minutes of the second half, there would have been the distinct possibility of damaging counterattack instead of meek touch-finders of pretty poor execution from Israel Folau. This would have changed the way the game unfolded. Beale at 12 worked for the Waratahs, and can work for the Wallabies, from the start.
Toomua put through a lovely grubber for Adam Ashley-Cooper to almost score but for some inspired defence from Willie le Roux. His flying out of the defensive line, however, can be a liability, and so it proved in the Springboks first try.
Toomua did well in creating the space for Folau’s try, but so would have Beale in that position, as Hendricks charged out of the line. Toomua is a fine player, and best at 10, not 12. Foley is best at 10, however, and other options at 12 could be attempted. Beale is the obvious one, and it is about time to do that.
Perhaps Ben Horne or Tevita Kurindrani could be tried there, perhaps on the end-of-year Tests. Horne, in particular, was originally a centre for the Waratahs, and has shown his worth in both attack and defence in recent Tests. His finish to score the winning try against the Springboks showed his class and reliability.
Kuridrani played very well. Is he better than Ashley-Cooper at 13? That is hard to say, but probably not. With no wingers around, Ashley-Cooper can go to wing, but he needs to be on the field for his all-round abilities in restarts, high-balls, defence reads and devastating hole-running, particularly near the try line.
The forwards are the really interesting part of the Springbok Test aftermath. Scott Higginbotham looked very good, making terrific metres with the ball, strong defence and good hands. He is a genuine lineout option as well. He has earned a start at number 8.
Wycliff Palu played quite well, and has done so through the torrid Super Rugby semifinals and finals, plus the first two Bledisloe Tests. He could be switched to the bench, which keeps him in the mix plus freshens him up a bit. With Higginbothom at eight Matt Hodgson can replace Scott Fardy at six to give the Wallabies the hard-over-the-ball ferret that they are currently lacking.
Fardy has not managed to reproduce his end-of-year Test form from 2013 in 2014 and needs to work on a few things, particularly how he let Bryan Habana get on his outside and fly past when he had defenders covering the inside channel. The bench for him as well.
James Horwill gave the forwards some starch and authority and had a calming effect on the inexperience that led to some terrible decision making in the third quarter. It might be time to start him again, with Aaron Carter to the bench. Three forward run-on changes sounds a bit drastic, but it isn’t really. The forwards just had a more composed, competitive and dangerous look about them with those players on at the end.
Captaincy-wise, Ben Mowen was the best the Wallabies have seen for a long time, and a good captain is worth another player, just about, which is probably why the All Blacks are so keen to keep Richie McCaw. Hooper has a lot to learn, because he did not do anything to stem the flow in Bledisloe Test 2 and the third quarter of the Springbok Test.
He’s worth sticking with, though, and the more experienced players need to get in his ear and help. Horwill could be a big plus in that area.
The team is a work in progress. Selections, and trying players in positions, have been the main problem and has led to one very poor result. However, the best back line and forward pack is close, given the players available for selection.
This last gasp win against the Springboks will give the team a big confidence boost. Look for those forward changes and Beale to start next week, because McKenzie knows now how fragile a thing confidence can be, and also how important it is to a favourable outcome.
Peter Hughes
Roar Rookie
PALU is good at Super R level imo It's when the pressure is put on him in TEST matches that he goes missing. We've got a 10 yr history of this now. He NEVER delivers in Test matches but coaches, commentators, fans here never learn from history. Mr Invisible is consistently THE worst No 8 in international rugby in TEST matches. Aust play with 7 forwards every time he's picked. Deans & McKenzie kept hoping he will deliver his Super Rugby form but he never does. Best news from last week is that he's injured again - hurray!
jeznez
Roar Guru
Probably right! :D
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Absolutely, test of depth. McCalman is running on at 8. Higgenbothom still on the bench. Maybe he'll sub on a bit earlier this week. Hodgson could get more time as well, and the 1st to go should probably be Fardy, though it all depends on who is playing well non the day. Peter Betham to run on for AAC. Wonder what happened to Tomane?
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Yeah, well, they keep picking him. Cheika is a very good coach, even if McKenzie's stocks are a bit low at the moment. Must be something they like, don't you think?
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
MIke, I agree with all that you've said there, and I can give Mckenzie some credit for the improvement. I think we both think he could have done a lot better i.e. not dumping Foley, but let's see how it pans out. I'm hoping he takes on board criticism of his man-management, because it's such a fundamental part of getting the best out of players, and we saw how good Cheika was at that, and how it helped the Waratahs.
Peter Hughes
Roar Rookie
Author says "Wycliff Palu played quite well, and has done so through the torrid Super Rugby semifinals and finals, plus the first two Bledisloe Tests. He could be switched to the bench, which keeps him in the mix plus freshens him up a bit. A sad joke when this is the level of commentary in Aust. PALU (Mr Invisible) is the single biggest reason why Ws get beaten so often. Aust play with 7 forwards every time he's on the field. Low work rate ,slow, error prone, lacks mongrel , low impact. Consistently the worst No 8 in international rugby and he's been Mr invisible all year and for the last 10 yrs in Test matches. Should never even be in a Wallaby squad. End of crusade :)
atlas
Guest
changes for the weekend Polota-Nau is back, first match since 2 August Wycliff Palu (concussion) and Adam Ashley-Cooper (neck) both out but not to worry, good test of depth - Higginbotham, and Tomane or Betham?
Mevan VK
Roar Rookie
This is very similar to the team I was thinking of! But why not give Hodgson a go at 6 and shift higginbotham to 8 and Palu to the bench? I feel that our back row needs a bigger breakdown presence...
Chivas
Guest
Thanks El G. Not much on today, apart from a but of a tease. I actually felt slightly depressed at the state of SH rugby after watching the game between SA and Aus. I wished I hadn't watched it. If the Wallaby fans can take anything out of that performance then they are better than I. The only thing the players should take is anger for putting up such a pathetic effort. At least they can channel that anger and take it into the next game. If they don't then I am afraid all the energy and excitement generated from the Warratah's winning the SR will be lost and the only people interested will be the hard core. I have just got my g/f interested in supporting and following rugby and this is the sort of rubbish the Wallabies put up for the last couple of weeks. Articles suggesting McCaw, Read etc. are rubbish and that the Aussie backline is some kind of threat certainly isn't helping. Now EM is about to unleash a world class forward pack... May the good lord save me. :-(
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Eagle, you reckon youre going to reason with people who think the guy voted as Australias best player is a liability? I seriously doubt that we can reason with that tbh. I could be wrong but thats so far off into la-la-land that...well they have their opinions.
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Yes, they will continue to draw with NZ and beat SA. Thanks for your contribution. Its like youve completely changed reality into a some world where Australias best player is a liability and Aus didnt just win and draw against #1 & #2. So you are saying the guy voted as the Wallaby mvp is a liability and you are saying that beating SA and drawing against NZ are the negative results of sticking with said liabilty. Well I can argue with that kind of genius tbh.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Great use of the smiley Chivas ;)
eagleJack
Guest
Awards mean a fair bit Zero Gain. Especially awards like the JE Medal which is voted by his peers. Irrespective of your feelings towards the guy, he has been given those awards cause he is the one of the few guys in the Australian setup with heart. He gives everything every time he puts on the jersey. We need more of him. A bloke that cares. If Hooper was told to focus solely on the breakdown he would excel. The guy is actually very good over the ball (no, not as good as Pocock). Justin Marshall highlighted this in an article earlier this year. But he brings more to the table than simply being a fetcher. And it is the coaching staff who have him utilising his many varied strengths. And the votes of confidence from his peers is testament he is doing something right.
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
In a world 15? Yeah hed be close.
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Well actually the awards mean that he isnt getting blown away at the breakdown. They mean that his peers consider hes the best player Aus has. But hey, clearly the rugby elite dont know as much as the fans. Well actually...the fans voted him as the best player in Aus too but you guys could be right...albeit a very, very small chance of being right, like about as much chance as there is of the moon actually being made of cheese. Just about as sensible too.
wazza perth nz ex pat
Guest
Yeah, he would scrape inside the top 15....
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Hooper is one of the best 7s in the world. The best 7 in Aus. Australias best player. A future great. Only one of those is an opinion.
Crazy Horse
Guest
If I was the coach I would start the forwards that were on the ground at full time. The bench players, particularly Higgenbotham and Hodgson were much better that those they replaced. Leave the back line as is except I would give Kyle Godwin a run off the bench at 12 (he can cover 10 as well if required). Beale can have a holiday.
Mike
Guest
"Wales are full of British Lions and are right up there." Sorry, no they aren't - bearing in mind the comparison being drawn is with the All Blacks. Wales are not remotely close. Nor was our result against Wales an improvement on the previous several years, so they are a bad example to support your point anyway. "remember The ABs just pulled off a last minute miracle to down Ireland on the EOYT 2013" Sure. But even if the Irish had beaten the ABs in 2013, that would not mean the Irish are anywhere near them in quality. I am very happy with the Wallaby wins on the EOYT. They are an achievement. But I can't credit your argument that we were "building momentum" to beat the ABs. If we compare our performance against the same teams (i.e. in TRC) last year, Link has seen an improvement - at the same time last year, Wallabies had lost both Bled matches and also lost the home game against the Boks. This year, WBs have one loss and one draw vs ABs, and one win vs Boks. WBs are also ahead on points differential compared to this time last year, because even though they didn't have the huge spanking by the ABs, they got two moderate spankings from them, plus a very big spanking by the Boks. if my maths is right, WBs vs ABs and Bokke this time last year were -55, whereas right now they are -30. So it all depends what you are comparing with: if you compare Wallabies results in TRC 2014 with EOYT 2013 and France series (i.e. totally ignoring the quality of the opposition), then sure WBs have gone backwards. But if you compare where they are now with the same point in TRC last year (same opposition) their results are a marked improvement. Now you;ve boxed me into defending McKenzie - and I don't think he a particularly good test coach. But he's got to be given credit where its due.
Chan Wee
Guest
actually recent history will show that after a flat performance the NZ come out like wounded buffaloes. Ireland , Frrance , England and now OZ all felt their fury. If i remember correct NZ nilled Ireland and Fance and this year blazed england off in one test. unlike cricket teams who more or less play tear round, rugger teams play tests for small windows each year, so the gelling and familiarity process takes a while - ala learning curve.