Before the Rugby Championship 2014 began, I wrote an article on my burgeoning optimism for the Wallabies possibilities at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
I had ventured into the rarefied air of the real possibility for the Wallabies to make the final and perhaps even win the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
A black-fading-to-grey picture was painted of an All Black side slowly descending from a great peak, with ageing players in key positions.
The Wallabies were given an optimistic treatment, suggesting a number of players who could now rightly be included in a World XV as the best come 2015.
So, how is it all going, now that we are halfway through the 2014 Rugby Championship?
It would not be unfair to say that Wallaby expectations may have suffered a bit of a dip, and All Black hopes have risen. This prognosis is largely based on the shemozzle in Auckland where the All Blacks were determined to scotch any emerging Wallaby optimism for 2015 Rugby World Cup honours.
One swallow does not a summer make, however, and there were a couple of mitigating factors regarding that Wallaby effort. The selection of Kurtley Beale at 10 was widely decried, and his two performances in that position justified the acrimony.
After the draw in Sydney, a match that could well have been won by the Wallabies, the Wallabies did not match up to All Black intensity and physicality in Auckland. I suggest there were man-management issues regarding the lack of Wallaby mental preparation for the Auckland Test as a result of the Kurtley Beale selection at 10 with Bernard Foley benched, creating internal disquiet which was not managed well by McKenzie.
A win in Sydney followed by a close, even if losing, result in Auckland would have been a positive outcome for the Wallabies, and given encouragement to the hopes for their progress towards Rugby World Cup 2015.
That did not happen.
Against the Springboks in Perth, departed from his decision to bench Bernard Foley in the previous two Tests. Kurtley Beale instead was the man on the bench.
Matt Toomua played 12, with Kurtley Beale replacing him late in the second half. This was the formula in June in the three Tests against France, and it worked quite well. Another change was Nick Phipps replacing Nic White as the run-on halfback, reprising the Waratahs combination.
The Wallabies scored a last gasp try to win the match, with the Waratahs backline delivering the goods at the death. That backline looked very fluid and cohesive. Tevita Kuridrani fitted in like a glove, and had his best game for some time.
Kurtley Beale’s inside pass to Folau and the subsequent one-hander to Bernard Foley giving the space for Tevita Kuridrani to put Ben Horne away were quality. Likewise with the Wallabies early try.
The 60 minutes in the middle of the match was controlled by the Springboks, who should have done more with their opportunities. The Springboks thought they had done enough to secure the win at the 70-minute mark, but the Wallabies showed the resolution and belief to defy the odds and come up with the win.
Opinions differ as to the value of the last gasp win, but to me, it is a very big confidence-booster. Realistically, the Wallaby performance was flawed in many areas. But it was not all bad.
Scott Allen pointed out that the Wallabies won 8 of 10 line-outs on their own throw. The scrum was mostly very competitive, bar one major glitch.
The Wallaby defence was generally very good. Simple errors, penalties and so on were their undoing. There was a period in the third quarter where there was a real resemblance to headless chickens, and that highlights the leadership hole left by Ben Mowen. Hooper is still on his P-plates when it comes to captaincy.
I expressed the view that a Rugby World Cup-winning team needs a decent number of players who could deservedly be judged as best in their position. I suggested that Folau, Hooper and Ashley-Cooper were already there, while Foley, Phipps, Beale and Slipper had the potential to be.
Obviously it doesn’t take long for individual players’ stocks to rise and fall, and in light of the last three Wallaby performances, a fall is more likely.
Folau is an attacking force who could do a lot better on his line kicks. Interestingly, if Beale was back there with him, I think he wouldn’t have kicked but counterattacked instead.
In New Zealand, Ben Smith is the man. However I liked the way the Wallabies were ready for his attempted acceleration through the kick-chase defensive line in Sydney and stopped him with offensive tackles.
Folau is more elusive and so difficult to stop, so I think he is the better player. Adam Ashley-Cooper has been banished to the wing. Both played very well.
Conrad Smith was very good in Auckland. I still think Adam Ashley-Cooper is the better player, however.
Hooper has copped some brickbats about a purported lack of physicality over the ball or in tackles, but I like to think that his is an upward curve. That criticism is a hangover from the Wallaby woes in Auckland. Of the others, I still see Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Kurtley Beale, and James Slipper looking imminent, while Sam Carter, Wycliff Palu, and Scott Fardy appear to have lost ground.
Higgenbotham looks pretty good from the bench, but we need to see him start. Nathan Charles is now injured again, though acquitted himself well when given the chance..
Mention is made of others on the overseas or injured list, particularly Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Henry Speight and James O’Connor.
McKenzie favourites watchers cite a real possibility of Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani being the selections of choice come 2015 once the real Rugby World Cup business gets under way.
For me, Will Genia and Quade Cooper have a lot to do to displace Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley, while Matt Toomua just doesn’t have the attacking instincts of Kurtley Beale. To have all these players available and in form would, however, be fantastic, and seamless interchange is a worthy goal which can hopefully be achieved. Many players are needed to win World Cups.
Forwards win matches so the remainder of the Rugby Championship must show the Wallaby faithful some real improvements in forward consistency, sustained and heightened physicality and error reduction. The sight of the bench players having their turn to run-on would be valuable as well.
All in all, have faith Wallaby heartland. Our cause is not lost, but slowly emerging from a temporary hiatus. There is still a promise of a bigger goal.
Phantom
Roar Rookie
Folau is the only back that would make the ab squad . Any bothy who thinks Ashley cooper is better than Conrad smith is clearly deluded. Don't even get me started on the forwards. A reserve hooker would be a help but that's where it would end
Old Bugger
Guest
RT Forget about jacpot. Cast the net far and wide within the NRC and find some forwards who look like they have some ticker and mongrel - heck, that's one of the main reasons why NRC started to improve player depth. Convince Link to show some starch and pick a prop, lock, No6 flanker and a No8 who are just blowing the NRC away with a mongrel, in your face attitude and take them on the EOYT. Choose now and use the next dozen or so tests to let them show their wares but don't bother with choosing someone else's also-ran. Link has nothing to lose but everything to gain since he isn't getting anywhere with his current pack. He needs to put his job on the line right now and make those hard calls.
RT
Guest
Smiths positional play is better than folaus but folau is learning. To say smith is better under the high ball than folau is, in my view, incorrect. I think they all blacks are much better at putting up high balls than the wallabies. Ask yourself this. If you put folau in the ab's and smith in the wallabies who would you be singing the praises of? If your honest it'd be Folau. AAC got moved to the wing to fit in Kurindrani. Do the same test with Conrad Smith and AAC and I reckon you'd come to the same conclusion.
RT
Guest
I much prefer club to franchise. It's ok to look to the future and embrace professionalism but the history shouldn't be forgotten. It's important to supporters in every code
somer
Guest
I think Folau is a brilliant player and a must have in the team, he may not be the best all-round fullback but he is such an attacking threat that all is forgiven, similar to Lomu in this regard. AAC lacks the distribution skills and creativity (which is why he's at wing) to be the best centre in the world, Conrad Smith for me. Hooper is certainly not the best no7, he lacks the physique and mentality to be a world-class forward. He's basically a back playing as a forward and as such he can embarrass other forwards in open play but his physical presence and effectiveness in the tight exchanges is poor.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Mace 22, I like Ben Smith a lot. I think he's the ABs best player. But I still prefer Folau. He'll be working on long kicks for touch and long passing, two current weaknesses, but if he has some support with him, Beale in particular, he's going to counterattack anyway. But I think that Folau is much more elusive in close contact than Ben Smith, he's harder to nail in a tackle, and always gets over the gain-line fairly decisively, even if he doesn't make a break. McKenzie has been moving AAC to the wing. I don't agree with it. I'm hoping he gets to stay at 13.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Yes, all that corporate stuff distances the team from the supporters. Have you noticed how the Super 15 teams refer to themselves often now as "clubs", where "franchise" was all the rage before, to try and sound big-business and important.
mace22
Guest
Have to take issue about your statement of Folau and AAC being better than their counterparts in the AB side. first Folau and ben Smith. Smith is a all round better player than Falou, smiths positioning is better he has a better kicking game and is faster. He is slightly better under the high ball. The only area Falou has over him is his timing of entering the backline. For AAC and Conrad smith I've only got one thing to say. If AAC was better then why has he been moved to the wing.
RT
Guest
I think we will find it hard to beat England in the pool. I'm more confident of wales. When we've won world cups before we've had world class front rows and at least one fantastic lock (eales) and at least one imposing back rower (ofahengaue and finegan). We've always had world class backs but again when we've won we've had authoritative half backs who've played with the 5/8 for long periods (Farr-jones/lynagh and Gregan/larkham). I don't see that in the current squad. Slipper is coming along a lot better than I thought. If he can up his scrummaging I'd have him close to the top of the tree in his position. Moore is world class and this injury might be a blessing for him. We sorely miss pocock. I wish someone had made hooper an inside centre 5 years ago. Any chance we can poach potgeiter? Foley is the lynagh mould of 5/8 and I rate him. Folau is good but learning to throw a good pass and kick long would make him exceptional. We've got some talent but I'm very unsure about our chances. Finally, my pet hate, why do coaches and players now constantly refer to the team as "this playing group" rather than "the team". It sounds so corporatised like players referring to their " brand".
ohtani's jacket
Guest
The All Blacks have been a great side since the final match against France on the 2004 EOYT. During that time there have been dips in performance, but it's basically an unprecedented 10 year run in the modern era reminiscent of how good they were in the 60s. Considering how much of their success this year has been driven by the young players in the side, the cycle appears to have restarted. They will be vulnerable in 2016 because of retirements and the Olympics, but for now there are very few signs that they are slipping. The past two tests have put that to bed.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
If the Wallabies go to the World Cup with the squad as it stands today, I think they will finish runner up in their pool. The only way I could see them making the final is if there's a reffing controversy. If they get some of their players back, they'll have a stronger shot at making it deep into the tournament, but at present they don't seem significantly better than the previous two Wallabies WC teams. In fact, they may be the weakest of the three. It really doesn't help that their players who are supposed to be great -- the Folaus, Hoopers and Palus -- are overrated to some extent or another.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
The Boks definitely seem to have stagnated, but I don't think the WBs are exactly stifled. McKenzie really upset their applecart by picking Beale at 10 for the 1st 2 Bled tests, but has realised his mistake and corrected it. No players on the field last match at half-time either, so the mind-game rubbish might have gone as well. I'm hoping. I see the WBs as potentially a very good attacking force, with the coach the main impediment to success. The ABs, on the other hand, I see as slipping down the other side of a great peak. Definitely not solidifying. Their level may still be too good for everyone at the 2015 WC, but the cycle of teams suggests to me that they are descending. All teams have these cycles. The ABs, great as they are, can't expect to forever defy the odds.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
McCalman is the man today, and he's looked good for the Force this year. Higgenbothom I think might be the man, because he is a real line-out option with great hands, and is playing harder, tighter, and technically more correctly at the breakdown now. Weight of performance, though. Let's see who comes out on top.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
II agree with your Higgenbothom at 8 as a line-out option idea, combined with Hooper and Pocock. Simmons is the gun line-out jumper and caller, so has to be there. Calling is a dark art with bluff and counterbluff, and is hard to do at the top level. Victor Matfield is the gold standard, but Simmons is up there. It would be good if he could cut out his stupid penalties, though. Horwill is aggressive, but there have been serious work-rate issues with him, particularly this year. I don't think he's fit enough. I'd still have him putting everything into the 1st half at least though. He seems to be on an up-curve, so let's hope that continues and even gains momentum. Scott Sio is a dark horse for 3, so watch that space. And. yes, Cheika has provided a blueprint for success as a ball-running counterattacking team, so why not use or adapt as much as you can from that?
Peter Hughes
Roar Rookie
IMO the wallabies RWC prospects look poor right now cause they stupidly persist in picking the worst no 8 in international rugby - PALU. Simple fact is you cannot hope to make a RWC final with 7 forwards. But that's what Aust have done over 50 tests in picking Mr Invisible - PALU. Unless Aust consistently start to pick a hard working good No 8 the pattern of the past 2 World Cups will continue imo.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
I'm a 'glass half-full" kinda guy, Brendan. And, our WC opposition is the strongest pool. We've had the wood on Wales for a while now, though some fairly lucky escapes were included there. They have a lot of 2013 British Lions, but I thought we threw that series away, rather than been overcome by a superior force. So I think we can beat Wales, as long as we don't put in a bad one. England are another story, however, because I sense that they are a rising force. I predicted that Australia v England could well be the WC final previously, and I still hold to that. I base that prognosis on the position of the main teams, or potential winners, in their team development cycle. I see NZ just starting to edge down, while South Africa seems to be trying to reprise 2007, with some of that team's key players, which looks a flawed strategy. France appears to be undermining itself with too many imported stars in the Top 14, though there are new rules to very slightly redress that. So, England will be dangerous in our pool. Big forwards, precision and aggressive set-piece, good defence, big and fast backs. We can undo, though, them with Waratahs-style flair and commitment to attack, as long as our forwards attack them with offensive defence hard on the ball, and our set-piece stands up creditably yo at least give us most of our own ball. There is another thing against them as well, and that is a slightly uncertain game plan and flawed selections at 10, 12 and 13 particularly. Where have we heard that? They have to score tries and commit to that, I think, to win, but I don't think they will. Cipriati has to be their 10, but I doubt they'll pick him as 1st choice.
Dru
Guest
This is my worry. If the consensus is that the ABs have solidified, while WBs stifle and Boks stagnate... it would be optimistic to expect the same in the north. Getting through the pool is a real ask until we see more from the WBs. We have not seen enough yet to suggest this has changed. It's possible that we will jump forward with return from injury to some key players. At the moment it's the only way I can get optimistic.
Brendan Hope
Roar Guru
Good to hear you're optimistic AlsBoyce! What do you think about your opposition in the WC pool stages? England & Wales should both be strong next year. I reckon Australia will still finish top of their pool though, plenty of depth in the backs.
RT
Guest
A bit to far out to say but at this stage I think we will be lucky to make the semis and given out pool we could, for the first time ever, go out at the pool stage. England and Wales are no easy beats.
Jameswm
Guest
The backs are fine We have to sort 3-4-5-6. Do that, and we're a chance to win. Kepu is a backup 3 level. If Sio can get trained and adept at 3, it'd be a massive help. At lock I see it is Horwill and Simmons starting with Skelton on the bench by then. At 6 Fardy has disappointed a bit this year after seeming excellent last year. He'd be needed at 6 if Skelton started, though Higgers is a good jumper too. A Hooper/Pocock back row pairing is a possibility, but you'd need a proper jumper at 8, with Higgers being the only one there really. McKenzie also needs to sort out the mindset of the players and how they play. Cheika has shown the blue print. You need to work the whole time, get up and into position asap, support the ball. Get the ball to ball-running forwards on the move who can offload. That's the problem with the combination of Simmons, Carter and Fardy, as none of them fit the bill.