Quality New Zealanders targeting Melbourne's 'big three'

In the last decade or so our friends over the ditch haven’t been quite as influential during the Spring carnival as in the past.

The likes of Bonecrusher, Veandercross, Ethereal and the mighty Sunline are becoming a distant memory, and 2012 Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and last year’s 2013 AJC Derby winner It’s A Dundeel have also retired.

While this current batch of quality New Zealanders are yet to prove they are of that ilk, it’s very possible they can rise to the occasion and have a massive impact on the Melbourne Carnival, especially the big three staying races of the spring (Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup).

It’s well worth taking a closer look at their profiles.

Lucia Valentina is now trained by Kris Lees at Newcastle but started her racing career with Stephen Marsh at Cambridge in New Zealand. She has only had the 10 starts and finished off her three-year-old career by winning on a heavy track in the Group 1 Vinery Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill before running a game third to Rising Romance in the AJC Oaks.

She resumed recently with a very memorable win against the older horses in the Tramway Stakes at Randwick, again on a heavy track. Her breeding on the dam’s side suggests she will be suited to races of 2000m or below, with none of her siblings winning at 2400m or above.

We already know she has an affinity for heavy tracks but she has won and performed very well on dead tracks. Her two starts on dry ground have been quite poor though, so I’d suggest her best chance this spring in Melbourne might be the Cox Plate on a Dead or worse surface. It is quite possible she could be competitive in the Caulfield Cup on a wet track too.

She is quite a lean and lightly framed mare, so she might have to be handled judiciously by her trainer. It didn’t surprise me at all that she won first up, because she doesn’t carry a lot of condition, and has performed well fresh in the past. Whether she can keep performing at the extremely high level we saw in the Tramway is the big question, but is he does there is no end to what she could win the Spring.

She has won on a left handed track so there is no concern with the Melbourne direction.

Rising Romance is a more robust mare than Lucia Valentina and the score is two apiece from their four meetings. But both times when beaten by LV she was lacking in fitness, and it would seem she is the type of mare that thrives on hard racing. She is yet to win a race with more than three weeks between runs (0/4), but is 4/7 otherwise.

Given that statistic, it was no surprise she was beaten by LV in the Vinery during the autumn and the Tramway recently when first up. There was nothing spectacular about her return in that race, but is was just what you wanted to see from her, given her Spring goals are the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup.

Her run in the New Zealand Derby, when second to Puccini, was a real eyectacher. She got too far back in the race and was strung up behind horses at the 600 metres to the turn. By then Puccini was gone, but when she got clear it was a sight to behold, making up roughly eight lengths on the winner down the straight.

I haven’t seen a horse finish that fast in a 2400m race for a very long time, and it was clear that it wouldn’t be long before she made amends.

She did so in the AJC Oaks 2 starts later, and then was put away with the spring in mind.

It would seem she is adept on any sort of going but probably loses her devastating sprint on heavy going. Having said that she hasn’t been tested on a heavy track at more than 2000m, and that distance range is probably her forte.

I see the Caulfield Cup as the ideal target for her but she could also be effective in the Cox Plate off a seven-day break in that race. She is 1/1 on left handed tracks so the Melbourne direction should hold no fears for her either.

Puccini is a horse Australia didn’t see the best of in two starts during the autumn in Sydney, which was almost certainly due to the heavy tracks he encountered. He resumed in New Zealand a few weeks ago on a slow 7 rated track and again seemed to flounder in the going, but it was encouraging to see him return to somewhere near his best on a dead 4 rated track when winning the Thorndon Mile last Saturday.

His win in the New Zealand Derby last Autumn was top rate, because he overraced early, and then had to make a long run around most of the field at the midway point to co-lead. He did all the donkey work, and then had the audacity to dash away before the turn, putting the race beyond doubt. He was eased down late, and he and the fast finishing filly Rising Romance streeted the rest of the field.

Some seasoned racegoers might remember his half brother Sir Slick, who had a cult following in New Zealand due to his constitution and front-running capabilities. To say he was an iron horse would be the understatement of the century. He had a 151-start career, winning 22 times and placing on 39 occasions, with 18 of those wins fourteen days or less between runs (8 with seven days or less).

He probably didn’t get the credit he deserved either, having won 6 times at Group 1 level in New Zealand, but his downfall was that he didn’t win a race in Australia from 22 attempts. He also ran once in Hong Kong and Singapore but failed on both those occasions. Like Puccini he really did prefer the drier tracks and was very effective when ridden on the pace.

It would appear that Puccini has inherited both those traits and a large dose of the same courage that Sir Slick displayed, but he isn’t as one dimensional as his half brother in regards to having to lead in his races.

You just have to hope he is more effective on his travels but we have to give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage. He has quality and intestinal fortitude, but he needs relatively dry ground to perform at his best.

I don’t know about his ability to get the two miles in the Melbourne Cup (if entered), but he could be a very tough nut to crack in the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup.

Who Shot The Barman is a six-year-old gelding that only started racing in April 2013. He rocketed into Melbourne Cup calculations with an impressive win with 60 kilograms at Flemington on Saturday over 2000m.

Prior to that his three runs in Australia had been quite poor, with two of those under the tutelage of gun trainer Chris Waller this preparation. It’s hard to actually pinpoint why he improved to such an extent at his third run back, because his strike rate in New Zealand was stellar, and he had handled all track conditions in his career to that point.

The crucial thing is that he enjoyed the hard track at Flemington, and that is the type of conditions that could prevail on Melbourne Cup day. He didn’t beat a lot, but he did it with authority and with a big weight.

It was also encouraging to see Deane Martin, a horse he beat easily in New Zealand on a couple of occasions, run a nice third at Group 3 level in the Kingston Town Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday.

This horse won the Auckland Cup at his seventh run (fifth win in a row) in only his second preparation so there is no doubting his ability to sustain his form until the big day in November. He is entered for the Metropolitan, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup and could well be capable of winning at least two of those races.

In regard to the Melbourne Cup it has been some time now since we have seen anything less than a well performed weight-for-age horse win the race. He is yet to prove himself at that level, but a decent run in a race of that calibre this spring would see him start close to favourite in the big race.

Silent Achiever is well named. She is now a six-year-old mare and has won four times at the elite level in Group 1 races, two of them coming last Autumn in Sydney. She was beaten less than two lengths in the Turnbull Stakes last Spring, and two-and-a-half lengths in the Caulfield Cup.

In the Autumn her trainer Roger James applied blinkers and her form skyrocketed, winning four out of four (three at Group 1 level), including a victory over Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente, before she failed in a hot Queen Elizabeth Stakes field when probably over the top.

It is interesting to wonder what might have happened if she had worn blinkers last spring, given she has seemingly found three lengths since.

As a three-year-old she defeated Ocean Park (in New Zealand) who would later go on and win the Cox Plate in his four-year-old season. She is only a small mare and was maybe a bit over-raced early in her career. Her trainer knows her intimately now though and I’m pretty sure she wasn’t anywhere near her peak first up in the Memsie Stakes, where her run was adequate.

The Melbourne Cup is her ultimate goal though and while doubt she can win at 3200m, with the right preparation who knows? She handles all track conditions and it’s interesting to note she goes better second up than first up.

It would appear she will be running in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield this Saturday.