What wins premierships? Such a simple question deserves a simple response, yet the answer still eludes us.
Some argue that premierships are built on a solid defence. Some argue that you have to get lucky (if only the ball had bounced the other way for Milne!).
Others argue that it comes down to the best team on the day.
More AFL Finals:
» Expert tips and predictions
» PREVIEW: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
» PREVIEW: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
The latter camp is partly right. As the saying goes, you have to be in it to win it. But what other factors contribute to a club playing on grand final day?
Since the inception of the revamped finals system in 2000 we have come to expect sides that finish in the top four to play off against each other in the preliminary finals. For the first time since 2000, however, two sides that finished outside of the top four are still in contention in the second last weekend in September.
In other words, all logic has been thrown out the window.
Nonetheless, a top-four finish clearly has its advantages, namely the double chance and promise of at least one home final.
But there is another factor that may be even more influential come finals time: the number of players used by each team throughout the season.
Perhaps it is not the team of greatest players that wins premierships, but the greatest team of players who consistently play beside each other every week.
Let’s have a look at the numbers.
Since 2000, every premiership team (except Brisbane in 2001) has used fewer players than the league average. In many cases, the gap is quite telling.
In 2007, for example, Geelong used 31 players compared to the league average of 35.63. Essendon in 2000 used 31 compared to the league average of 36.06.
Most interestingly, however, are the figures for years in which underdogs tasted the ultimate success. In 2012, the Swans upset Hawthorn by 10 points. The Swans played 31 players throughout the season, whereas the Hawks played 34.
Did the Swans get lucky? Or was their consistent team of players more in tune with one another come grand final day?
In 2008, Hawthorn were the ones dealing out a shocking defeat to red-hot favourites, Geelong. The Cats had finished four games clear of the Hawks, comfortable winners of the minor premiership and near certainties to take home the flag.
The league average for players used by each club in 2008 was 35.88; however, Hawthorn and Geelong both used only 31 players. Did this put Hawthorn and Geelong on an equal footing come grand final day? Did this equality erode the four-game buffer that Geelong had over Hawthorn at the end of the home-and-away season?
I can already hear the detractors. A bottom-four side could play with the same number of players as the premiership side all year, does this mean that they, too, would be on an equal footing?
It’s a fair argument. But the numbers show that the teams that make grand finals and the teams that go on to win premierships are the ones that are playing with the same consistent team. Not the teams that finish last.
In 2008, for example, Melbourne won the wooden spoon and played 39 players – 8 more than that of Hawthorn and Geelong. In 2005, the premiers, Sydney, used 32 players, whereas the last placed Carlton used 35. And in 2013 Hawthorn played 34 players and won the premiership, whereas Greater Western Sydney played 46 players and won the wooden spoon.
Heading into preliminary final weekend, will the numbers stack up?
In 2014 the average number of players used by each club is currently 36.83, and all four remaining sides are below this number.
The Kangaroos have used 36 players, Hawthorn have used 35 players and Sydney and Port Adelaide have both used 33 players to date.
Most notably, Hawthorn has had an injury-interrupted season. Key players, such as Josh Gibson, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli – who still remains in doubt for this weekend – have all had time on the sidelines this year due to injury.
It is yet to be seen whether this will have any affect on the 2013 premiers, who have coped incredibly well with these injuries, as well as coach Alistair Clarkson’s illness.
But, if the numbers do tell the truth, Hawthorn may fall agonisingly short – if not this weekend, then perhaps the next.
All of the teams that have been eliminated from the 2014 finals used 35 (Fremantle, Geelong, Essendon) or 36 (Richmond) players, the same number fielded by Hawthorn and North.
Maybe it will be a Swans versus Port grand final. That is, if the numbers are correct.
John Uhr-Henry
Guest
I don`t think Sarah Olle realized what she was writing when she said that Hawthorn would fall short in the grand final.. All the smart judges knew that the Hawks would really play well, and take it up to the Bondi Billionaire`s.. Hawthorn came to play and their Coaching fraternity were fantastic on the day.They had a fantastic game plan and told their team to play hard, tuff, in your face football and really give it to their opposition who by quarter time they had no answer to Hawthorn`s superiority on the day. The hawks had plenty to loose and back to back was their afternoon`s desire,intention and achievement,and nobody was going to get in their way. What a great performance it was and well deserved at the final siren of the final quarter. As far as a lot of comments in these and other articles Re- the Hawks player imports,it seems to be very sour grapes by a lot of readers and writers who were jealous of Hawthorn`s success. Great clubs go out and get players who they need,and go ahead and coach them properly. And if a lot of other clubs got off their big fat arse and became a great and progressive club like Hawthorn the competition would be a lot better ,closer and the whole competition would be better off for it..Enjoy 2014 all Hawks supporters and we will give it a heck of a shake this time in 2015.Why does Hawthorn have the second most members of the AFL. Its because they are a great club with great officials and coaches. Look out all you other clubs in 2015,Hawthorn is coming after you..
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Interesting article. There is clear evidence for the possibility of such a trend. Although, there may be another reason (i.e. a stat) that this remains true. I don't know what it is. But a few different players i.e. 2 or 3 used in a season, should not detract from a Premiership. I would perhaps look at the number of games the top 22 misses. That perhaps, would be of greatest indication. If the fewest players is used, then that would lead me to believe less of the best 22 are missing week in, week out.
Stewie
Guest
Re. point 2, it's probably why Tom Mitchell hasn't been playing much. Give him a full, non-injury interrupted preseason though...
Griffo
Guest
Don't forget though that although Sydney was seen as the underdog in 2012 there was not a whole lot between the two sides. They met in round 22 with where Sydney led by as much as 38 points and went down by just 7 points. Had they won that match then Sydney would have finished the H & A 1st and Hawthorn 3rd, a reversal of their actual position. There actually wasn't much between the whole top 8 in 2012, just 3 wins between 1st and 8th.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
Personally, I think the only statistic which matters is that 22 players take on 22 opposition players and the best 22 wins. The team using the fewest gross number of players in a given year may have settled on its best 22 earlier than some others but far more likely is that they have experienced fewer injuries to players in their best 22. Based on the 'Best 22' statistic, the results of the Home and Away season predict a Sydney v Hawthorn Grand Final but this actually means very little. Port and North are still very much in the mix because statistics show only degrees of probability, not certainty. An injury here or an act of brilliance there and no matter what statistics might suggest as probable, the less probable can still occur. I give thanks for possibility. Not knowing if your team will win sometimes til literally the last kick of the day is part of what makes any sporting contest great. Go Sydney; may the odds and good fortune both be with you.
Aransan
Guest
I think the statistics could be improved, a team might play 36 players over a season but 5 of the players may have only played 1 game each. Perhaps calculate the total number of games that players 32 to 36 have played in the season. A number of other good points have been made by contributors.
Michael huston
Guest
I think Hawthorn have just as strong a chance as anyone else, particularly Sydney if the results go as expected. Although they were cruelled by injuries early in the season and suspensions, they have been fortunate enough to be full strength at finals time and their returning stars have had enough time to regain their form and fitness. It won't be the amazing flag everyone seems to think it will be. If Hawthorn win, it will be a case of the best team of the year winning the games most coveted prize.
John Uhr-Henry
Guest
Where did you get that Sarah Olle from. She is talking / writing absolute bull tish. Hawthorn as a super team will play to its great team spirit on Saturday. Last time when Port beat us by a few points we had half a senior team in playing but this time its going to be totally different as far as our soldiers are concerned. What a load of bull tish Sarah talks about how many team players were involved in the various teams through the home and away games. Teams play their players on their fitness and ability to see out a game and Hawthorn have done extremely well considering how many injuries they sustained during the season. It appears Sarah is trying to upstage the game and trying to say that Port Adelaide are favourites and should be playing off in the big one in two weeks time. Which ever side in both prelim finals that plays the better of the two teams on the day will be the winners and we hope its Hawthorn instead of outsiders which Sarah has very willingly picked and declares will front up the following Saturday.
Glen
Guest
Well doesn't it also mean that although the Hawks have been ravaged with injury this season but at the same time managed to win games and finishing second on the ladder prove the depth of playing talent that the club has.Put the voodoo dolls away and give Hawthorn credit for a amazing season which i'm sure all would agree deserves to win the flag.
Questionable use of stats
Guest
An interesting article, but it probably asks more questions than it answers. 1. Throw out the home and away numbers, who use the same team week in, week out for the finals. After all, everything leading up to the finals means little once you put your team on the park for the finals. A bad injury or 2 in week 1 of the finals will see extra numbers brought in, which could be repeated in week 2 etc. That would be more destabilising than year long averages. 2. What is the impact of injuries and how serious are they also comes into play. Week before a bye, weeks between a bye, opposition in those weeks also become factors in the decision making of coaches as to who to play. 3. How fresh are players come finals time that have had a long layoff, ie Gibson as opposed to players that have trotted out every week and have had no respite on their bodies. Maybe in some ways it is an advantage to have had a freshen up, albeit the team may have been more exposed through playing a variety of players through the home and away. I love numbers and stats, they can tell us all sorts of things, but ultimately it will be the team that harnesses the collective best efforts of their chosen 22 on Grand Final day. And let us all hope that they are wearing gold and brown. A year where they have had many challenges, blooded many young players, and even were without their coach for an extended period, it would be a fabulous effort to see them get up again. Go Hawks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Radelaide
Guest
Well I hope your stats are right as a Port fan but stats have been blown out the water this finals series but I suspect the best team on the day wins as was evidenced in 2010 when Saints were within an unlucky bounce of a premiership and then the next week were destroyed.
Winston
Guest
Just thinking about Sarah's point about underdog wins, there is another important factor. I'm thinking about the Swans 2012 win, and there was remarkable improvement from many of their lesser players since the start of the year to the end. Alex Johnson could not do a thing right at the start, but played a pivotal role in the GF. LRT was his usual self all year, but again brought out his A game for the GF. Mike Pyke had one from still being "the worst player in the universe" at the start of the year to being number 2 in contested marks for the year by the end. Hannebery went from a rising star who could run but can't do much else to being an elite A grader. That's not to say the Hawks were bad that year, but I think they were already good at the start and the improvement wasn't as much as the Swans. So maybe, another key to success is to somehow improve players DURING the season, ie not just relying on the pre-season training?
Mango Jack
Guest
Agree, Ironmonger. If a team has used many players, it depends on the reason. It is either forced, as in Hawthorn's case through injury and suspension, or unforced where the team is not performing and the coach is searching for a winning combination. Sarah's conclusions may well apply to the latter, but the former may be considered as building depth in the side, which is a good thing.
Ironmonger
Guest
I'm no statistician, but I think you are making some wayward assumptions regarding cause and effect here. It looks like it is a fair thing to say that a team that can use less players over the year will also be a team that is likely to be successful. I'd say a team that has used less players is likely to have had less injuries to its key players and therefor been able to give itself every chance of winning. A team that is winning is also less likely to make changes voluntarily too. If you are getting pumped by a hundred points each week of course the coach is going to be experimenting with combinations. So I'd say a more accurate proposition is that 1. Successful teams typically have used less players over the course of the year 2. Successful teams don't change their playing 22 much as they stick with what's working 3. Sides with less forced replacements through injury are more likely to be successful